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The Challenges of Tumor Mutational Burden as an Immunotherapy Biomarker
Open accessAbstract
Tumor mutational burden (TMB) reflects cancer mutation quantity. Mutations are processed to neo-antigens and presented by major histocompatibility complex (MHC) proteins to T cells. To evade immune eradication, cancers exploit checkpoints that dampen T cell reactivity. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have transformed cancer treatment by enabling T cell reactivation; however, response biomarkers are required, as most patients do not benefit. Higher TMB results in more neo-antigens, increasing chances for T cell recognition, and clinically correlates with better ICI outcomes. Nevertheless, TMB is an imperfect response biomarker. A composite predictor that also includes critical variables, such as MHC and T cell receptor repertoire, is needed.
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“In certain tumour types, the number of neoantigens in a tumour (or tumour mutational burden (TMB)) is correlated with responsiveness to ICIs67,68.”
From Adjuvant and neoadjuvant immunotherapies in hepatocellular carcinoma (2024) · cites this paper as [67]
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“As a tumor-intrinsic feature that reflects cancer mutation quantity, TMB reflects tumor foreignness and is related to tumor neo-antigens within TME, which are presented by major histocompatibility complex proteins to T cells [68].”
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“Given that tumors with higher immunogenicity, such as those with elevated TMB levels, are known to derive long-term clinical benefits from ICIs 61–64 , we assessed TMB across the subtypes and found significantly higher TMB levels in CS3 tumors ( P 0.001, Fig.”
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“Prior studies have documented that low TMB is associated with reduced ef fi cacy of immunotherapy 29,30 .”
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“[35, 36] Additional file 2: Figure S3 shows that the expression level of APOBEC3B was positively correlated with the TMB of ACC, BLCA, BRCA, CESC, COAD, LIHC, LUAD, OV, PRAD, PAAD, SKCM, THCA, and THYM.”
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“Higher TMB produces more neoantigens, which increases the chance of recognition by T cells (Jardim et al., 2021).”
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“Another biomarker that has recently garnered signi fi cant attention is tumor mutational burden (TMB), which is a measure of the number of mutations in a cancer [16].”
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“Recent research reported that TMB might not always correlate with ICIs responsiveness [35].”
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“Due to these factors, TMB and MSI status are currently used as clinical biomarkers to deploy ICI treatments in a histology-agnostic fashion 35,36 .”
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“Therefore, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recently granted the clinical application of anti-PD-1 agent pembrolizumab as an alternative immunotherapy strategy for solid tumors with TMB > 10 mutations/Mb 18 .”
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“We therefore speculate that, in addition to the antitumor effects of ICIs, MPMs have extensive genomic instability, which could form a large antigen pool and increase the chances for T cell recognition, resulting in a better ICI outcome (44).”
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“Studies have shown that identifying biological markers which can predict the patients’ responses to ICI treatment would aid in identifying patients who would benefit from ICI therapy (9).”
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“In particular, TMB, defined as the number of somatic mutations per coding area of a tumor’s genome, has been an emerging clinical biomarker([99]); hypothetically, tumors with high TMB have an increased number of neoantigens, which can help native immune cells to recognize and kill tumor cells.([100]) TMB could be of p…”
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“TMB is a surrogate marker for making immunogenic neopeptides shown on the surface of tumor cells by major histocompatibility complexes, which affect the anti-tumor immune response to ICIs [218,219].”
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“Tumors with a higher TMB tend to have more neoantigens,potentiallyprovidingtheimmunesystemwithabroaderrange oftargetsinresponsetoimmunotherapy 50 .”
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“TMB has been extensively studied as a predictive biomarker for response to ICI (18, 19) and is used clinically to guide ICI treatment (20), though challenges remain in terms of its general implementation across cancer types and individuals (21).”
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“TMB and MSI are two closely related biomarkers that play important roles in tumor diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis assessment (33, 34).”
Zhu, Y., Yu, S., Yang, D., Tian, Y., Liu, Y., & Du, W. (2025) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms26073125 · Cited by 8
“Boxplots were employed to compare the expression levels of immune check-point genes between high-risk and low-risk groups, highlighting significant differences ( p 1 × 10 − 5 TMB was calculated using somatic mutation data from TCGA and expressed as mutations per megabase [46].”
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“In the future, the identi fi cation of reliable predictive biomarkers for immunotherapy response is anticipated to facilitate more precise patient strati fi cation, thereby enhancing therapeutic ef fi cacy and improving clinical outcomes.”
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“TMB reflects the overall quantity of somatic mutations within a tumor genome and has emerged as a potential biomarker for prognostic assessment and immunotherapy response prediction [70].”
Esophageal cancer: from pathogenesis to precision therapies
Zhang, S., Shen, Y., Zhu, L., Lai, Y., Zhu, L. C., Xiao, X., Li, J., Tan, W., Lin, D., & Wu, C. (2026) · Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy · doi:10.1038/s41392-026-02614-7 · Cited by 12
“419 Research into novel biomarkers and predictive signatures continues.”
Zhao, H., Tian, H., Nuerbieke, T., Ma, K., Li, W., Niu, X., Li, J., Ashby, C. R., Chen, Z., Zhou, T., et al. (2026) · Cancer Letters · doi:10.1016/j.canlet.2026.218690 · Cited by 9
Chen, W., Li, D., Bian, X., Wu, Y. T., Xu, M., Wu, M., & Tao, M. (2022) · Nutrition and Cancer · doi:10.1080/01635581.2022.2123533 · Cited by 8
Wang, L., Luo, S., Wang, Z., Huang, Y., Luo, Y., & Xie, X. (2022) · Journal of Immunology Research · doi:10.1155/2022/5160705 · Cited by 8
“…burden (TMB), which refers to the number of somatic coding errors like base substitutions, insertions, or deletions that occur across one million bases, is considered to be a promising indicator for predicting the patient ’ s level of responsiveness to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) [26, 27].”
Ci, H., Wang, X., Shen, K., Du, W., Zhou, J., Fu, Y., Dong, Q., & Jia, H. (2023) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms24043324 · Cited by 8
“Consequently, the more mutations there are, the higher the chance that some of the neo-antigens will be immunogenic, which is why T cells clear them [10].”
BackgroundWang, G., Ji, X., Wang, H., Tang, X., Xing, X., & Ji, J. (2023) · Chinese Journal of Cancer Research · doi:10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2023.03.09 · Cited by 8
Liu, S., Yao, Y., Hou, M., Mei, J., Sun, L., & Zhang, G. (2023) · BMC Cancer · doi:10.1186/s12885-023-11589-5 · Cited by 8
“These results suggest that the high-risk group had a higher risk of tumor immune evasion [54–56].”
BackgroundResultANO6 is a reliable prognostic biomarker and correlates to macrophage polarization in breast cancer
Tang, L.-H., Dai, M., & Wang, D. (2023) · Medicine · doi:10.1097/md.0000000000036049 · Cited by 10
“[22] Pearson correlation test was also adopted to assess the association of ANO6 expression with TMB and MSI scores.”
MethodUpregulation of POC1A in lung adenocarcinoma promotes tumour progression and predicts poor prognosis
Li, Z., Li, J., Wu, Z., Zhu, Y., Zhuo, T., Nong, J., Qian, J., Peng, H., Dai, L., Wang, Y., et al. (2024) · Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine · doi:10.1111/jcmm.18135 · Cited by 8
Sun, X., Li, J., Gao, X., Huang, Y., Pang, Z., Lv, L., Li, H., Liu, H., & Zhu, L. (2024) · Oncology Letters · doi:10.3892/ol.2024.14476 · Cited by 8
de Graaf, J. F., Pesic, T., Spitzer, F. S., Oosterhuis, K., Camps, M. G. M., Zoutendijk, I., Teunisse, B., Zhu, W., Arakelian, T., Zondag, G. C. M., et al. (2024) · Molecular Therapy Oncology · doi:10.1016/j.omton.2024.200835 · Cited by 9
Prognostic prediction of gastric cancer based on H&E findings and machine learning pathomics
Han, G., Liu, X., Gao, T., Zhang, L., Zhang, X., Wei, X., Lin, Y., & Yin, B. (2024) · Molecular and Cellular Probes · doi:10.1016/j.mcp.2024.101983 · Cited by 8
Li, X., Huang, Q., Lei, Y., Zheng, X., Dai, S., Leng, W., & Liu, M. (2021) · Annals of Translational Medicine · doi:10.21037/atm-21-434 · Cited by 8
Tumor organoid-originated biomarkers predict immune response to PD-1 blockade
Bozkus, C. C., & Bhardwaj, N. (2021) · Cancer Cell · doi:10.1016/j.ccell.2021.08.003 · Cited by 8
John, J., Woolaver, R. A., Popolizio, V., Chen, S. M. Y., Ge, H., Krinsky, A. L., Vashisht, M., Kramer, Y., Chen, Z., & Wang, J. H. (2022) · Frontiers in Immunology · doi:10.3389/fimmu.2022.992630 · Cited by 8
Abate, R. E., Cheetham, M. H., Fairley, J. A., Pasquale, R., Sacco, A., Wolstenholme, N., Deans, Z. C., Patton, S. J., & Normanno, N. (2022) · Archiv für Pathologische Anatomie und Physiologie und für Klinische Medicin · doi:10.1007/s00428-022-03444-y · Cited by 8
Cai, J., Xie, H., Yan, Y., Huang, Z., Tang, P., Cao, X., Wang, Z., Yang, C., Wen, J., Tan, M., et al. (2023) · Frontiers in Genetics · doi:10.3389/fgene.2022.1082691 · Cited by 8
“TMB was commonly regarded as an indicator for immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) in BC, lung cancer and melanoma (Fusco et al., 2021; Jardim et al., 2021; McGrail et al., 2021).”
BackgroundPrognostic value and immunological role of CSNK1D in human cancers
Wang, J., Hu, B., & Wang, W. (2023) · Aging · doi:10.18632/aging.205009 · Cited by 10
“Microsatellite instability (MSI) and tumor mutation burden (TMB) are emerging as biomarkers for immune therapy [25, 26].”
BackgroundPRKCSH serves as a potential immunological and prognostic biomarker in pan-cancer
Wang, Q., Wang, X., Li, J., Yin, T., Wang, Y., & Cheng, L. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-52153-w · Cited by 9
Ma, B., & Yu, R. (2023) · Frontiers in Genetics · doi:10.3389/fgene.2023.1105900 · Cited by 7
“TMB has been recently considered a potential predictive biomarker of immunotherapy (Picard et al., 2020; Jardim et al., 2021; Rizzo et al., 2021).”
BackgroundNeoadjuvant PD-1 Plus Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Qian, T., Liu, D., Cao, G., Chen, Z., & Zhang, Q. (2024) · Technology in Cancer Research & Treatment · doi:10.1177/15330338241231610 · Cited by 7
“15 In clinical practice, a certain level of TMB expression has been found in patients with esophageal cancer.”
BackgroundJeong, A., Trando, A., Thomas, S. D., Riviere, P. J., Sakowski, P. J., Sokol, E. S., Goodman, A. M., & Kurzrock, R. (2024) · Therapeutic Advances in Medical Oncology · doi:10.1177/17588359241273053 · Cited by 7
Self-citationc-MET is an important marker for acid-driven metastasis and anti-immune in colorectal cancer
Wan, X., Li, Z., & Zhou, L. (2024) · International Immunopharmacology · doi:10.1016/j.intimp.2024.113153 · Cited by 7
Untangling cell–cell communication networks and on-treatment response in immunotherapy
Steinheuer, L. M., Klümper, N., Bald, T., & Thurley, K. (2024) · Current Opinion in Systems Biology · doi:10.1016/j.coisb.2024.100534 · Cited by 7
Coagulation factor II thrombin receptor as a promising biomarker in breast cancer management
Dong, Y.-M., & Bao, G. (2024) · Open Life Sciences · doi:10.1515/biol-2022-1001 · Cited by 7
Lewintre, E. J., Rappa, A., Ruano, D., van Egmond, D., Gallach, S., Gozuyasli, D., Durães, C., Costa, J. L., Camps, C., Lacroix, L., et al. (2025) · Molecular Diagnosis & Therapy · doi:10.1007/s40291-024-00766-2 · Cited by 7
Goodsell, K. E., Tao, A. J., & Park, J. O. (2025) · Frontiers in Surgery · doi:10.3389/fsurg.2025.1531852 · Cited by 8
The search for a TNBC vaccine: the guardian vaccine
Fines, C. B., McCarthy, H. O., & Buckley, N. E. (2025) · Cancer Biology & Therapy · doi:10.1080/15384047.2025.2472432 · Cited by 7
“100 Therefore, TNBC can be seen as a good candidate for not only immunotherapy, but also for vaccine therapy.”
Yu, Z., Luo, J., An, W., Wei, H., Li, M., He, L., Fan, X., & Wei, H. (2025) · Biomedicines · doi:10.3390/biomedicines13040773 · Cited by 7
“TMB and MSI are predictive biomarkers for ICI sensitivity, with tumors exhibiting high TMB or MSI being more likely to respond to ICIs [53].”
Therapeutic vaccine strategies in cancer: advances, challenges, and future directions
Wang, C., & Hao, P. (2025) · Clinical Cancer Bulletin · doi:10.1007/s44272-025-00039-x · Cited by 8
“Combining therapeutic vaccines with ICIs, cytokine therapies, and adoptive cell transfer has shown significant promise in overcoming immune evasion and enhancing anti-tumor responses [68].”
Clonal lineage tracing of innate immune cells in human cancer
Liu, V., Sándor, K., Yan, P., Miao, Z., Yin, Y., Stickels, R. R., Chen, A. Y., Hiam-Galvez, K. J., Gutierrez, J. C., Zhang, W., et al. (2026) · Cancer Cell · doi:10.1016/j.ccell.2026.05.006 · Cited by 8
Established and emerging biomarkers approaches in urothelial carcinoma
Membribes, S. C., Nally, E., Jackson‐Spence, F., Graham, C., Lalwani, S., Szabados, B. E., & Powles, T. B. (2025) · Expert Review of Anticancer Therapy · doi:10.1080/14737140.2025.2543454 · Cited by 7
“At the same time, the development of novel biomarkers, including tumor mutational burden (TMB) [10], cell surface proteins such as Nectin-4 [11] or trophoblast cell-surface antigen 2 (TROP-2) [12], as well as immune-related signatures, reflects an expanding focus on multidimensional tumor profiling…”
Oncolytic virotherapy: Sparking durable anti-tumor immunity through microenvironment modulation
Kollmann, C. F., van Montfoort, N., Cordelier, P., Pol, J. G., & Olagnier, D. P. (2025) · Seminars in Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.smim.2025.101994 · Cited by 7
Huang, S., Liang, Y., Liu, N., & Ma, J. (2025) · Frontiers of Medicine · doi:10.1007/s11684-025-1151-5 · Cited by 8
Peripheral blood biomarkers for predicting response to PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors
Chen, S., Hu, Y., Cheng, H., Guo, S., Han, Y., & Li, K. (2026) · Biomarker Research · doi:10.1186/s40364-026-00892-5 · Cited by 7
“…- c e ll l u n g c a n c e r , between ctDNA decline and T-cell expansion in responders [67], while the neoantigen burden reflected by bTMB must be coupled with competent major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-mediated presentation and a diverse T TCR repertoire for effective immune targeting [68].”
Nishizaki, D., Law, A., Li, B., Abbott, C. W., Chen, Y., Lee, S., Pyke, R. M., Keough, K. C., Daniels, G. A., Yeung, K. T., et al. (2026) · npj Precision Oncology · doi:10.1038/s41698-026-01287-3 · Cited by 7
“Currentpredictivebiomarkers, includingmicrosatelliteinstability(MSI)status 1 , PD-L1 expression 2 and tumor mutation burden (TMB) 3 , have shown limitations in predicting treatment response and duration of response, and conventional imaging techniques may not accurately assess therapeutic outcomes,…”
Influential
Metadata
- Authors
- Jardim, D. L., Goodman, A., de Melo Gagliato, D., & Kurzrock, R.
- Affiliations
- Hospital Sírio-Libanês (BR)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kurzrock, Razelle
- Venue
- Cancer Cell
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-02
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 154-173
- ISSN
- 1535-6108 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7878292
- OpenAlex
- W3097803258
- Cited by
- 1,192
- References
- 151
- Citations by year
- 2026: 134 · 2025: 263 · 2024: 294 · 2023: 276 · 2022: 171 · 2021: 53
- FWCI
- 13.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/open-access/userlicense/1.0/ (vor, 372 d)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-017 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-037 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-012 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-029 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-004 (stm-asf)
- Locations
- Cancer Cell (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Astellas Pharma US
- National Cancer Institute (P30 CA023100)
- Janssen Pharmaceuticals
- AstraZeneca
- Bristol-Myers Squibb
- Genentech
- Roche
- EMD Serono
- Pfizer
- Meso Scale Diagnostics
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer Immunotherapy and Biomarkers
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Immunology › Immunotherapy and Immune Responses
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Cancer Research › Cancer Genomics and Diagnostics
- Keywords
- tumor mutational burden, immunotherapy biomarkers, immune checkpoint inhibitors, neoantigens, MHC class I antigen presentation, T cell receptor repertoire, cancer immunotherapy response prediction
- MeSH terms
- Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors, Humans, Immunotherapy, Major Histocompatibility Complex, Mutation, Neoplasms, T-Lymphocytes, Biomarkers, Tumor
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