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Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2013 and projections for 2035
Open accessAbstract
Introduction Diabetes is a serious and increasing global health burden and estimates of prevalence are essential for appropriate allocation of resources and monitoring of trends.Methods We conducted a literature search of studies reporting the age-specific prevalence for diabetes and used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to systematically select studies to generate estimates for 219 countries and territories. Estimates for countries without available source data were modelled from pooled estimates of countries that were similar in regard to geography, ethnicity, and economic development. Logistic regression was applied to generate smoothed age-specific prevalence estimates for adults 20-79 years which were then applied to population estimates for 2013 and 2035.Results A total of 744 data sources were considered and 174 included, representing 130 countries. In 2013, 382 million people had diabetes; this number is expected to rise to 592 million by 2035. Most people with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries and these will experience the greatest increase in cases of diabetes over the next 22 years.Conclusion The new estimates of diabetes in adults confirm the large burden of diabetes, especially in developing countries. Estimates will be updated annually including the most recent, high-quality data available.
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In the citing paper
“In 2013, there were an estimated 382 million patients with diabetes globally.1”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“Concerningly, the T2D incidence continues to increase, and it is projected that there will be >590 million patients diagnosed with this condition by 2035.1,2”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“Of the 2.1 billion individuals that are obese or overweight <25% have been diagnosed with T2D.1,18”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“T2D is a chronic metabolic complex multifactorial disease, involving many organs, that has become a global pandemic in recent decades.1,28”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“Interestingly, the rise in prevalence of T2D is estimated to be almost 4x as high in developing as in developed countries.1,25,51”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“This is thought to be due to developing countries adopting ‘western lifestyles’ and the increase in obesity and the number of people being overweight in their populations.1,28,52”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“By 2045, it has been estimated that there will be over 700 million T2D patients worldwide.1,62”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“However, as highlighted in Tables 1 and 2, the future increase in the number of T2D patients will be partly due to the rise in the global population and not just increasing incidence.1”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“China has the highest number of T2D patients (~98 million) and India has the second-highest (around 65 million).1”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“Tokelau has been reported in 2013 as the country with the greatest prevalence of T2D (37.5%) in the national population.”
From A review of current trends with type 2 diabetes epidemiology, aetiology, pathogenesis, treatments and future perspectives (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“The frequency of prediabetes is increasing as the prevalence of obesity rises worldwide.”
From The Vasculature in Prediabetes (2018) · cites this paper as [2]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Guariguata, L., Whiting, D. R., Hambleton, I., Beagley, J., Linnenkamp, U., & Shaw, J. E.
- Affiliations
- International Diabetes Federation (BE)
- University of the West Indies (BB)
- Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Guariguata, L.
- Venue
- Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2014-02
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 137-149
- ISSN
- 0168-8227 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2139923324
- Cited by
- 4,642
- References
- 87
- Citations by year
- 2026: 79 · 2025: 146 · 2024: 251 · 2023: 272 · 2022: 364 · 2021: 455 · 2020: 465 · 2019: 518 · 2018: 500 · 2017: 581 · 2016: 477 · 2015: 339 · 2014: 178
- FWCI
- 264.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Eli Lilly and Company
- Pfizer
- Sanofi
- Novo Nordisk
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Keywords
- diabetes prevalence, diabetes projections, age-specific prevalence, low- and middle-income countries, global health burden, population projections, analytic hierarchy process
- MeSH terms
- Developing Countries, Diabetes Mellitus, Forecasting, Health Resources, Humans, Global Health, Prevalence
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