Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition
Abstract
Aims To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045. Methods A total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. For countries without high quality in-country data, estimates were extrapolated from similar countries matched by economy, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates (including previously undiagnosed diabetes) in adults aged 20-79 years. Results The global diabetes prevalence in 2019 is estimated to be 9.3% (463 million people), rising to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. The prevalence is higher in urban (10.8%) than rural (7.2%) areas, and in high-income (10.4%) than low-income countries (4.0%). One in two (50.1%) people living with diabetes do not know that they have diabetes. The global prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance is estimated to be 7.5% (374 million) in 2019 and projected to reach 8.0% (454 million) by 2030 and 8.6% (548 million) by 2045. Conclusions Just under half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide and the number is projected to increase by 25% in 2030 and 51% in 2045.
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Physical activity can delay the onset of type 2 diabetes or potentially prevent it through improvements in glycemic control.
“Physical activity can delay the onset of T2DM or potentially prevent it through improvements in glycemic control (11, 12).”
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- Authors
- Saeedi, P., Petersohn, I., Salpea, P., Malanda, B., Karuranga, S., Unwin, N., Colagiuri, S., Guariguata, L., Motala, A. A., Ogurtsova, K., Shaw, J. E., Bright, D., & Williams, R.
- Affiliations
- International Diabetes Federation (BE)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- The University of Sydney (AU)
- University of the West Indies (BB)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal (ZA)
- Deutsches Diabetes-Zentrum e.V. (DE)
- Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute (AU)
- Swansea University (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Saeedi, Pouya
- ORCID
- Venue
- Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2019-11
- Volume
- 157
- Pages
- 107843
- ISSN
- 0168-8227 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2972869264
- Cited by
- 10,792
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1040 · 2025: 1578 · 2024: 1817 · 2023: 1760 · 2022: 2035 · 2021: 1841 · 2020: 701 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 2 · 2016: 1 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 606.33
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Pfizer-
- MSD Alliance, with an additional support of Lilly Diabetes and Novo Nordisk
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Keywords
- diabetes prevalence, diabetes projections, age-specific prevalence, undiagnosed diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance, urban-rural differences
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Global Health, Prevalence, History, 21st Century, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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