Development and validation of a deep learning-based framework for automated lung CT segmentation and acute respiratory distress syndrome prediction: a multicenter cohort study
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Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a life-threatening condition with a high incidence and mortality rate in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing ARDS is crucial for timely intervention and improved clinical outcomes. However, the complex pathophysiology of ARDS makes early prediction challenging. This study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI) model for automated lung lesion segmentation and early prediction of ARDS to facilitate timely intervention in the intensive care unit. Methods: A total of 928 ICU patients with chest computed tomography (CT) scans were included from November 2018 to November 2021 at three centers in China. Patients were divided into a retrospective cohort for model development and internal validation, and three independent cohorts for external validation. A deep learning-based framework using the UNet Transformer (UNETR) model was developed to perform the segmentation of lung lesions and early prediction of ARDS. We employed various data augmentation techniques using the Medical Open Network for AI (MONAI) framework, enhancing the training sample diversity and improving the model's generalization capabilities. The performance of the deep learning-based framework was compared with a Densenet-based image classification network and evaluated in external and prospective validation cohorts. The segmentation performance was assessed using the Dice coefficient (DC), and the prediction performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. The contributions of different features to ARDS prediction were visualized using Shapley Explanation Plots. This study was registered with the China Clinical Trial Registration Centre (ChiCTR2200058700). Findings: The segmentation task using the deep learning framework achieved a DC of 0.734 ± 0.137 in the validation set. For the prediction task, the deep learning-based framework achieved AUCs of 0.916 [0.858-0.961], 0.865 [0.774-0.945], 0.901 [0.835-0.955], and 0.876 [0.804-0.936] in the internal validation cohort, external validation cohort I, external validation cohort II, and prospective validation cohort, respectively. It outperformed the Densenet-based image classification network in terms of prediction accuracy. Moreover, the ARDS prediction model identified lung lesion features and clinical parameters such as C-reactive protein, albumin, bilirubin, platelet count, and age as significant contributors to ARDS prediction. Interpretation: The deep learning-based framework using the UNETR model demonstrated high accuracy and robustness in lung lesion segmentation and early ARDS prediction, and had good generalization ability and clinical applicability. Funding: This study was supported by grants from the Shanghai Renji Hospital Clinical Research Innovation and Cultivation Fund (RJPY-DZX-008) and Shanghai Science and Technology Development Funds (22YF1423300).
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Only 5 studies reported calibration metrics.
“In addition, only 5 studies reported calibration metrics, which are crucial for assessing model reliability [38,63,113,120,121].”
From Multimodal Artificial Intelligence for Precision Critical Care: A Scoping Review (2026) · cites this paper as [113]
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- Authors
- Zhou, Y., Mei, S., Wang, J., Xu, Q., Zhang, Z., Qin, S., Feng, J., Li, C., Xing, S., Wang, W., Zhang, X., Li, F., Zhou, Q., He, Z., & Gao, Y.
- Affiliations
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN)
- Fudan University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Zhou, Quanhong
- He, Zhengyu
- Gao, Yuan
- ORCID
- Venue
- eClinicalMedicine
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2024-09
- Volume
- 75
- Pages
- 102772
- ISSN
- 2589-5370 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC11338113
- OpenAlex
- W4401057490
- Cited by
- 26
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 1
- FWCI
- 3.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- EClinicalMedicine (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Shanghai Science and Technology Development Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition › Medical Image Segmentation Techniques
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › COVID-19 diagnosis using AI
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Radiomics and Machine Learning in Medical Imaging
- Keywords
- acute respiratory distress syndrome, ARDS prediction, lung lesion segmentation, chest CT, UNETR, deep learning, intensive care unit patients, early risk stratification, Shapley value, explainable AI, C-reactive protein, albumin, bilirubin, external validation, data augmentation, MONAI, clinical decision support
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