Up in smoke: California's greenhouse gas reductions could be wiped out by 2020 wildfires
Open accessAbstract
In this short communication, we estimate that California's wildfire carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions from 2020 are approximately two times higher than California's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions since 2003. Without considering future vegetation regrowth, CO2e emissions from the 2020 wildfires could be the second most important source in the state above either industry or electrical power generation. Regrowth may partly of fully occur over a long period, but due to exigencies of the climate crisis most of the regrowth will not occur quickly enough to avert greater than 1.5 degrees of warming. Global monetized damages caused by CO2e from in 2020 wildfire emissions amount to some $7.1 billion USD. Our analysis suggests that significant societal benefits could accrue from larger investments in improved forest management and stricter controls on new development in fire-prone areas at the wildland-urban interface.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
California plans to treat 1 million acres of forestland annually to help restore forests to more healthy stand conditions.
“California plans to treat 1 million acres of forestland annually, helping to restore forests to more healthy stand conditions (Forest Management Task [12, 22]).”
From DIY mass timber: development of low-tech and low-cost structural mass timber manufacturing to support forest utilization in California (2025) · cites this paper as [22]
The Conclusions state that California and the federal government agreed to increase forest treatment to 1 million acres per year to prevent wildfires. They do not say that the treatments will restore forests to healthier stand conditions; that part of the claim is not supported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
Abatzoglou, J. T., & Williams, A. P. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1607171113 · Cited by 3,073 · see citing works
Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016
(2017) · doi:10.5194/essd-9-697-2017 · Cited by 2,493 · see citing works
Critical Review of Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke Exposure
Reid, C. E., Brauer, M., Johnston, F. H., Jerrett, M., Balmes, J. R., & Elliott, C. T. (2016) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.1409277 · Cited by 1,396 · see citing works
Self-citationEstimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
Hsiang, S., Kopp, R., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado, M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen, D. J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., et al. (2017) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aal4369 · Cited by 1,239 · see citing works
Self-citationRapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk
Radeloff, V. C., Helmers, D. P., Kramer, H. A., Mockrin, M. H., Alexandre, P. M., Bar-Massada, A., Butsic, V., Hawbaker, T. J., Martinuzzi, S., Syphard, A. D., et al. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1718850115 · Cited by 1,225 · see citing works
Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene
Bowman, D. M. J. S., Kolden, C. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Johnston, F. H., van der Werf, G. R., & Flannigan, M. (2020) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-020-0085-3 · Cited by 1,148 · see citing works
Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California
Williams, P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Gershunov, A., Guzman‐Morales, J., Bishop, D. A., Balch, J. K., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001210 · Cited by 1,100 · see citing works
Wildland fire smoke and human health
Cascio, W. E. (2018) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.086 · Cited by 642 · see citing works
Particulate air pollution from wildfires in the Western US under climate change
Liu, J. C., Mickley, L. J., Sulprizio, M. P., Dominici, F., Yue, X., Ebisu, K., Anderson, G. B., Khan, R. F. A., Bravo, M. A., & Bell, M. L. (2016) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1762-6 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
Economic footprint of California wildfires in 2018
Wang, D., Guan, D., Zhu, S., Kinnon, M. M., Geng, G., Zhang, Q., Zheng, H., Lei, T., Shao, S., Gong, P., et al. (2020) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-020-00646-7 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
Future Fire Impacts on Smoke Concentrations, Visibility, and Health in the Contiguous United States
Ford, B., Martin, M. V., Zelasky, S., Fischer, E. V., Anenberg, S. C., Heald, C. L., & Pierce, J. R. (2018) · GeoHealth · doi:10.1029/2018gh000144 · Cited by 311 · see citing works
The health impacts and economic value of wildland fire episodes in the U.S.: 2008–2012
Fann, N. L., Alman, B. L., Broome, R. A., Morgan, G. G., Johnston, F. H., Pouliot, G., & Rappold, A. G. (2017) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.024 · Cited by 284 · see citing works
We’re Not Doing Enough Prescribed Fire in the Western United States to Mitigate Wildfire Risk
Kolden, C. A. (2019) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire2020030 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Liu, T., Mickley, L. J., Marlier, M. E., DeFries, R., Khan, M. F., Latif, M. T., & Karambelas, A. (2019) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2019.111557 · Cited by 238 · see citing works
Self-citationLarge California wildfires: 2020 fires in historical context
Keeley, J. E., & Syphard, A. D. (2021) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-021-00110-7 · Cited by 228 · see citing works
Vast CO2 release from Australian fires in 2019–2020 constrained by satellite
van der Velde, I. R., van der Werf, G. R., Houweling, S., Maasakkers, J. D., Borsdorff, T., Landgraf, J., Tol, P. J. J., van Kempen, T. A., van Hees, R. M., Hoogeveen, R. W. M., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03712-y · Cited by 200 · see citing works
Carter, T. S., Heald, C. L., Jimenez, J. L., Campuzano‐Jost, P., Kondo, Y., Moteki, N., Schwarz, J. P., Wiedinmyer, C., Darmenov, A., da Silva, A., et al. (2020) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-20-2073-2020 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
Historical patterns of wildfire ignition sources in California ecosystems
Keeley, J. E., & Syphard, A. D. (2018) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf18026 · Cited by 175 · see citing works
Decreases in Near-Road NO and NO2 Concentrations during the COVID-19 Pandemic in California
Liu, J. Z., Lipsitt, J. M., Jerrett, M., & Zhu, Y. (2020) · Environmental Science & Technology Letters · doi:10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00815 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationMulti-temporal Remote Sensing of Vegetation Regrowth After a Large Wildfire
Kibler, C. L. (2019) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 21 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- California Air Resources Board (CARB), 2017. California's 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan, pp. 1-132.
- Feo, T.J., Evans, S., Mace, A.J., Brady, S.E., Lindsey, B., 2020. The Costs of Wildfire in California: an Independent Review of Scientific and Technical Information. California Council on Science and Technology. California Council on Science and Technology, pp. 1-248.
- IPCC, 2018. Global Warming of 1.5 • C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 • C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In: The Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
- State of California, 2020. USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Region. Agreement for Shared Stewardship of California's Forest and Rangelands, pp. 1-9.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Connections Between Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Cardiovascular Health
Alahmad, B., Khraishah, H., Althalji, K., Borchert, W., Al‐Mulla, F., & Koutrakis, P. (2023) · Canadian Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.cjca.2023.03.025 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Mortality attributable to PM 2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018
Connolly, R. E., Marlier, M. E., Garcia-Gonzales, D. A., Wilkins, J. L., Su, J. G., Bekker, C., Jung, J., Bonilla, E. X., Burnett, R. T., Zhu, Y., et al. (2024) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl1252 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Self-citationQuantifying fire-specific smoke exposure and health impacts
Wen, J., Heft‐Neal, S., Baylis, P., Boomhower, J. P., & Burke, M. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2309325120 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Wildfires Increase Concentrations of Hazardous Air Pollutants in Downwind Communities
Rice, R. B., Boaggio, K. L., Olson, N. E., Foley, K. M., Weaver, C. P., Sacks, J. D., McDow, S. R., Holder, A. L., & LeDuc, S. D. (2023) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.3c04153 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Jerrett, M., Connolly, R. E., Garcia-Gonzales, D. A., Bekker, C., Nguyen, J. T., Su, J. G., Li, Y., & Marlier, M. E. (2024) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2310081121 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Self-citationKhatri, P., Nepal, P., Sahoo, K., Bergman, R. D., Nicholls, D. G., & Gray, A. N. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163918 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Kayastha, S. G., Ghahremanloo, M., Park, J., Singh, D., Westenbarger, D. A., & Choi, Y. (2024) · Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems · doi:10.1175/aies-d-24-0028.1 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Hamilton, S. D., Wu, D., Johnson, M. S., Turner, A. J., Fischer, M. L., Dadheech, N., & Jeong, S. (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2024gl111150 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
An Optimization of UAV-Based Remote Monitoring for Improving Wildfire Response in Power Systems
Umunnakwe, A., & Davis, K. (2023) · IEEE Open Access Journal of Power and Energy · doi:10.1109/oajpe.2023.3337760 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Mayer, A. C. R., Mayer, J., Wyser, M., Legerer, F., Czerwiński, J., Lutz, T. W., Johnson, T. V., & Jacobson, M. Z. (2024) · Emission Control Science and Technology · doi:10.1007/s40825-023-00236-x · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Aditi, K., Pandey, A., & Banerjee, T. (2024) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2024.125441 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Real-Time On-Orbit Fire Detection on FOREST-2
Schöttl, F., Spichtinger, A., Franquinet, J., & Langer, M. (2024) · IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS) · doi:10.1109/igarss53475.2024.10641618 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Chafe, O., Broz, A., Levenson, E. S., Farinacci, M. D., Anderson, R. O., & Silva, L. C. R. (2024) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1273632 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Deak, A. L., Lucash, M. S., Coughlan, M. R., Weiss, S. A., & Silva, L. C. R. (2024) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.4827 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Pervasive fire danger continued under a negative emission scenario
Kim, H.-J., Kim, J., An, S.-I., Shin, J.-W., Oh, J., & Kug, J. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-54339-2 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Wildfire Smoke in the United States
Gellman, J., & Wibbenmeyer, M. J. (2025) · Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · doi:10.1086/732404 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Jiao, A., Zhu, S., Chen, X., He, Q., Benmarhnia, T., & Wu, J. (2026) · Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2026.124195 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Atedhor, G. O., & Atedhor, C. N. (2024) · Scientific African · doi:10.1016/j.sciaf.2024.e02271 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Long, X., Xu, M., Dong, W., Xiu-mei, Y., Cui, L., & Tong, Q. (2024) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2024.125470 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Stavros, E. N., Gezon, C., Denis, L. S., Iglesias, V., Zapata, C. B., Byrne, M., Cooper, L., Cook, M., Doyle, E., Stephens, J., et al. (2023) · Applied Sciences · doi:10.3390/app131911034 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Quantifying fire-specific smoke severityPreprint
Wen, J., Baylis, P., Boomhower, J. P., & Burke, M. (2023) · doi:10.31223/x5qm1h · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Mapping Soil Organic Carbon in Wildfire-Affected Areas of the McKenzie River Basin, Oregon, USAPreprint
Katz, S., Gavin, D. G., & Silva, L. C. R. (2023) · doi:10.22541/essoar.168695523.32925211/v1 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Hossain, M. E., Kanwal, S., Fatima, S., Önden, A., Rehman, M. Z., & Alnour, M. (2025) · International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology · doi:10.1080/13504509.2025.2557199 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Short-Term total and wildfire fine particulate matter exposure and work loss in California
Meng, Y., Yu, Y., Al‐Hamdan, M. Z., Marlier, M. E., Wilkins, J. L., Garcia-Gonzales, D. A., Chen, X., & Jerrett, M. (2023) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2023.108045 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationHu, Q., He, C., Zhang, L., Su, Y., Zou, X., & Zhang, L. (2025) · ACS ES&T Water · doi:10.1021/acsestwater.4c00826 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
State-wide California 2020 carbon dioxide budget estimated with OCO-2 and OCO-3 satellite data
Johnson, M. S., Hamilton, S. D., Jeong, S., Cui, Y. Y., Wu, D., Turner, A. J., & Fischer, M. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-8475-2025 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Ma, Y., Chen, C., Aguilera, R., Gershunov, A., Jerrett, M., Connolly, R. E., Marlier, M. E., & Benmarhnia, T. (2026) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000001970 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationKozanitas, M., Rosenblad, K. C., & Ackerly, D. D. (2026) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123706 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Mayencourt, P., & Swagemakers, J. (2025) · Architecture, Structures and Construction · doi:10.1007/s44150-025-00147-1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Carbon Accounting for Forest Products: Carbon Debt and the Time Dimension
Loehle, C. (2025) · Forest Science · doi:10.1007/s44391-024-00007-3 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The Carbon Conundrum: Forests’ Dual Role as Carbon Absorber and Emitter During Forest Fire
Agnihotri, V. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-89967-6_4 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Observational evidence of land and atmosphere precursors regulating forest fire in the Himalayas
Aditi, K., Adeyeri, O. E., & Banerjee, T. (2026) · Atmospheric research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109153 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Characterizing emissions, chemistry, and health impacts of aged wildfire smoke in a western US city
Jin, L., Tan, L., Ketcherside, D., Selimovic, V., Nauman, K. D., Yokelson, R. J., & Hu, L. (2026) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-26-11047-2026 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Agroforestry and net-zero in the European agriculture, forestry and land use sector
LAWSON, G., Bertomeu, M., den Herder, M., Kay, S., Deranja, D., Boeck, A. D., & Burgess, P. J. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-13985-7.00011-7 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Comings, D. E. (2024) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202408.1979.v1
Short-term atmospheric pollution monitoring in a selection of European capitals
Condurache-Bota, S., Draşovean, R., & Popa, G. (2022) · Annals of the ”Dunarea de Jos” University of Galati Fascicle II Mathematics Physics Theoretical Mechanics · doi:10.35219/ann-ugal-math-phys-mec.2022.2.05
Hu, Q., Liu, L., Ni, J., Zhang, M., Du, S., Chu, L., Li, Y., Zhang, P., Zhang, L., & He, C. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4610218
Hu, Q., Wang, Y., Wang, Y., & He, C. (2024) · Atmospheric Pollution Research · doi:10.1016/j.apr.2024.102303 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The Sudd Marshes: A Threat to Regional Wetland Drainage
Abtew, W. (2025) · Springer geography · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-78657-0_10
The Everglades Drainage: A Lesson for Regional Wetlands
Abtew, W. (2025) · Springer geography · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-78657-0_9
Mishra, Y., & Mahalingam, H. (2025) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-5937363/v1
Wildfire and financial stability of U.S. regional banks in CaliforniaPreprint
Koch, J.-A., Islam, M. S., & Sabir, K. M. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5503112
The wider consequences of weather, climate and ocean extremes
Hay, J. E. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-95102-9.00003-3
Planning for Community Fire Resilience The Case of Wildland Sprawl in CaliforniaPreprint
Olshansky, R., Chapple, K., Kerchof, C., & Harris, M. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5764588
Hysteretic response of Western North American fire weather to CO₂ removal
Wei, T., Dong, W., & Chen, Y. (2025) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-025-05875-4
Wildfire and Financial Stability of U.S. Regional Banks in CaliforniaPreprint
Koch, J.-A., Islam, M. S., & Sabir, K. M. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5404817
Life Cycle Assessment of Using Wood Waste for Production of Structural Engineered Wood Panels
Jahani, S., & Sowlati, T. (2026) · Waste and Biomass Valorization · doi:10.1007/s12649-026-03503-4
Wildfires and financial stability of U.S. regional banks in California
Koch, J.-A., Islam, M. S., & Khan, M. S. (2026) · Finance research letters · doi:10.1016/j.frl.2026.110001
Tesch, L., Bandarra, B. S., Craveiro, H., & Gervásio, H. (2026) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111612
Wildfire drives a net decrease in forest live biomass across the Western United StatesPreprint
Zarakas, C. M., Badgley, G., Goulden, M. L., & Randerson, J. T. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.04.30.720232
Wildfire Dynamics in South Africa: Causes, Consequences, and Management Strategies
Mangala, O., Shikwambana, L., & Kosch, M. J. (2026) · Springer proceedings in earth and environmental sciences · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-27507-3_5
Ayompe, L. M., & Elias, M. (2026) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2026.1870338
Bimouhen, M., Karaoui, I., Amrabd, K., Noury, Y., Nait-taleb, O., Arioua, A., Elhamdouni, D., & Roy, A. (2026) · Environmental Monitoring and Assessment · doi:10.1007/s10661-026-15812-1
Fire-adapted natural climate solutions to reduce wildfire emissions in US forests
Truettner, C., DeLyser, K., Markovchick, L., Pansing, E. R., Walker, X. J., Mack, M. C., Link, N. T., Sternberg, M. A., Hurteau, M. D., McCarley, T. R., et al. (2026) · BioScience · doi:10.1093/biosci/biag128
Cale, A. B., Ren, J., Burke, W. D., Kennedy, M. C., Sullivan, B. W., & Hanan, E. J. (2026) · Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences · doi:10.1029/2026jg009930
- Authors
- Jerrett, M., Jina, A. S., & Marlier, M. E.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- University of Chicago (US)
- Corresponding author
- Jerrett, Michael
- Venue
- Environmental Pollution
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2022-10
- Volume
- 310
- Pages
- 119888
- ISSN
- 0269-7491 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4289942728
- Cited by
- 55
- References
- 21
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 4.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Pollution (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Knowledge@UChicago (University of Chicago) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- University of Chicago (cc-by)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- wildfire emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 equivalent, vegetation recovery, forest management, wildland-urban interface, climate change mitigation
- MeSH terms
- Greenhouse Gases, Wildfires, California, Carbon Dioxide, Greenhouse Effect, Forests
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
