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Cited by 3,073Fire effects on ecosystemsPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsClimate variability and models

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

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Abatzoglou, John T., Williams, A. Park·2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1607171113PMC PMC5081637
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Abstract

Significance: Increased forest fire activity across the western United States in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures. Although numerous factors aided the recent rise in fire activity, observed warming and drying have significantly increased fire-season fuel aridity, fostering a more favorable fire environment across forested systems. We demonstrate that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the cumulative forest fire area since 1984. This analysis suggests that anthropogenic climate change will continue to chronically enhance the potential for western US forest fire activity while fuels are not limiting.

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  • Land use and ongoing climate change are altering characteristics of individual fires and changing fire regimes, in some cases pushing them outside the historical range of variability in frequency, size, seasonality or severity.

    “Second, land use and ongoing climate change are altering characteristics of individual fires and changing fire regimes, in some cases pushing them outside the historical range of variability in terms of frequency, size, seasonality or severity (Abatzoglou & Williams, 2016;Balch et al., 2018;Kelly et al., 2013;Miller et al., 2019;Walker et al., 2018).”

    From Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers (2020) · cites this paper as Abatzoglou & Williams, 2016

    The paper’s main text (page unavailable in our copy) says climate change has increased fire activity in western US forests and that land management and human activity can modulate those changes. It reports increases in burned area and discusses fire-season length, but does not establish that fire regimes have moved outside their historical range of variability in frequency, size, seasonality, or severity, or analyze changes to individual fires across those dimensions. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Much of the increase in wildfire frequency and area burned has been correlated with drier conditions, earlier snowmelt, and severe droughts associated with climate change.

    “Much of the increase in wildfire frequency and area burned has been correlated with drier conditions, earlier snowmelt (especially at mid elevations) and severe droughts associated with climate change (Abatzoglou & Williams, 2016; Dennison et al., 2014; Holden et al., 2018; Westerling, 2016).”

    From Wildfire Induces Changes in Receiving Waters: A Review With Considerations for Water Quality Management (2022) · cites this paper as Abatzoglou & Williams, 2016

    In the main text (page not provided), the paper reports increases in large fires and a strong correlation between fuel aridity and forest area burned; it also attributes substantial increases in fuel aridity and burned area to human-caused climate change. The passages support the drier-conditions link, but do not establish earlier snowmelt, particularly at mid elevations, or severe droughts as the specific correlates claimed. The paper documents increased numbers of large fires but does not show the same correlation for fire frequency. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • In the western United States, evidence indicates that warming and drying, including from human-caused climate change, are associated with more frequent and larger fires and longer fire seasons.

    “In the western United States, there is strong evidence that regional warming and drying, including that directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, are linked to increased fire frequency and size and longer fire seasons (5–9).”

    From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [5]

  • Climate change has lengthened the fire-weather season over most of the world, including parts of the US, by roughly two weeks in the last thirty years.

    “Observations suggest that climate change has extended the duration of the fire weather season across most of the globe, including parts of the United States by a couple of weeks over the past three decades (5, 9)”

    From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [5]

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Cites

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Authors
Abatzoglou, J. T., & Williams, A. P.
Affiliations
  • University of Idaho (US)
  • Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
Corresponding author
Abatzoglou, John T.
ORCID
Abatzoglou, John T.
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2016-10-10
Volume
113
Issue
42
Pages
11770-11775
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1607171113
PMC
PMC5081637
OpenAlex
W2530960585
Cited by
3,073
References
7
Citations by year
2026: 394 · 2025: 418 · 2024: 387 · 2023: 390 · 2022: 385 · 2021: 417 · 2020: 267 · 2019: 188 · 2018: 144 · 2017: 74 · 2016: 2 · 2012: 2
FWCI
100.86
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
www.pnas.org/site/misc/userlicense.xhtml (vor, 182 d)
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX14AJ14G)
  • National Science Foundation (1520873)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords
forest fires, anthropogenic climate change, vapor pressure deficit, fire suppression legacy, natural climate variability, fire area, climate change projections, fire potential
MeSH terms
Wildfires, Humans, Human Activities, Models, Theoretical, Seasons, United States, Climate Change, Forests

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