Dynamics of firm financial evolution and bankruptcy prediction
Integrity signals
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Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The optimal prediction accuracy is one year before failure; average accuracy is 85% for a one-year horizon and decreases to 69.5% for five-year horizons.
“The review also shows that the optimal prediction accuracy is one year before failure, from that point the accuracy rates decrease, where the average rate for a one-year horizon is 85% and decreases to 69.5% for five years horizons.”
From Bank failure prediction: corporate governance and financial indicators (2023) · cites this paper as du Jardin 2017
Most studies provide predictions up to three years horizons, while fewer extend it to four-or five-year horizons.
“The review shows that most studies provide predictions up to three years horizons, while fewer extend it to four-or five-year horizons.”
From Bank failure prediction: corporate governance and financial indicators (2023) · cites this paper as du Jardin 2017
Other studies suffered from decreasing accuracies as the time horizon of prediction increased using only financial ratios.
“Other studies suffered from decreasing accuracies as the time horizon of prediction increased using only financial ratios (du Jardin 2017).”
From Bank failure prediction: corporate governance and financial indicators (2023) · cites this paper as du Jardin 2017
Cites
Wolpert, D. H. (1992) · Neural Networks · doi:10.1016/s0893-6080(05)80023-1 · Cited by 7,951 · see citing works
The Strength of Weak Learnability
Schapire, R. E. (1990) · Machine Learning · doi:10.1007/bf00116037 · Cited by 4,600 · see citing works
Bankruptcy prediction by generalized additive models
Berg, D. (2007) · Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry · doi:10.1002/asmb.658 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Emery, G. W., & Cogger, K. O. (1982) · Journal of Accounting Research · doi:10.2307/2490741 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
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Bank failure prediction: corporate governance and financial indicators
Alzayed, N., Eskandari, R., & Yazdifar, H. (2023) · Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting · doi:10.1007/s11156-023-01158-z · Cited by 23 · see citing works
- Authors
- du Jardin, P.
- ORCID
- du Jardin, Philippe
- Venue
- Expert Systems with Applications
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-06
- Volume
- 75
- Pages
- 25-43
- ISSN
- 0957-4174 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2571622694
- Cited by
- 103
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 5
- FWCI
- 33.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Expert Systems with Applications (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Corporate Insolvency and Governance
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Keywords
- bankruptcy prediction, firm financial health, medium-term forecasting, ensemble learning, failure models, Basel Committee, prudential regulation, financial institutions
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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