Cited by 114Financial Distress and Bankruptcy PredictionCorporate Insolvency and GovernanceForecasting Techniques and Applications

Bankruptcy prediction by generalized additive models

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Berg, Daniel·2007·Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry

Abstract

We compare several accounting‐based models for bankruptcy prediction. The models are developed and tested on large data sets containing annual financial statements for Norwegian limited liability firms. Out‐of‐sample and out‐of‐time validation shows that generalized additive models significantly outperform popular models like linear discriminant analysis, generalized linear models and neural networks at all levels of risk. Further, important issues like default horizon and performance depreciation are examined. We clearly see a performance depreciation as the default horizon is increased and as time goes by. Finally a multi‐year model, developed on all available data from three consecutive years, is compared with a one‐year model, developed on data from the most recent year only. The multi‐year model exhibits a desirable robustness to yearly fluctuations that is not present in the one‐year model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Crossref · 10.1002/asmb.658

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Authors
Berg, D.
Affiliations
Norwegian Computing Center (NO)
Corresponding author
Berg, Daniel
Venue
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2006-11-08
Volume
23
Issue
2
Pages
129-143
ISSN
  • 1524-1904 (ISSN-L)
  • 1526-4025
OpenAlex
W2110767824
Cited by
114
References
22
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 4
FWCI
7.64
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry (publishedVersion)
  • NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders
Norges Teknisk-Naturvitenskapelige Universitet
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Corporate Insolvency and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Keywords
bankruptcy prediction, generalized additive models, financial statements, out-of-sample validation, Norwegian companies

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