Bankruptcy prediction by generalized additive models
Open accessAbstract
We compare several accounting‐based models for bankruptcy prediction. The models are developed and tested on large data sets containing annual financial statements for Norwegian limited liability firms. Out‐of‐sample and out‐of‐time validation shows that generalized additive models significantly outperform popular models like linear discriminant analysis, generalized linear models and neural networks at all levels of risk. Further, important issues like default horizon and performance depreciation are examined. We clearly see a performance depreciation as the default horizon is increased and as time goes by. Finally a multi‐year model, developed on all available data from three consecutive years, is compared with a one‐year model, developed on data from the most recent year only. The multi‐year model exhibits a desirable robustness to yearly fluctuations that is not present in the one‐year model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Relevant research concerning XAI in the form of general additive models in Finance did not appear in the search.
“Relevant research concerning XAI in the form of general additive models in Finance (Berg 2007; Taylan etal. 2007; Calabrese 2012) did not appear in our search.”
From Applications of Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Finance—a systematic review of Finance, Information Systems, and Computer Science literature (2024) · cites this paper as Berg 2007
The literature search could be extended by researching more outlets, varying keywords, and including a broader publication date range.
“Although we tried to base our literature search on a broad variety of databases, there is still the possibility of researching more outlets, varying keywords, and including a broader publication date range to receive an even richer set of results”
From Applications of Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Finance—a systematic review of Finance, Information Systems, and Computer Science literature (2024) · cites this paper as Berg 2007
GAMs are understandable enough to make users feel confident for practical applications in finance, environmental studies, geology, healthcare, biology and energy.
“When compared to other models, these are understandable enough to make users feel confident on using them for practical applications in finance [193, 194, 195], environmental studies [196], geology [197], healthcare [44], biology [198, 199] and energy [200].”
From Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): Concepts, taxonomies, opportunities and challenges toward responsible AI (2020) · cites this paper as [193]
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Sopitpongstorn, N., Fenech, J.-P., & Silvapulle, P. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2310402
Improving the predictive performance of longitudinal risk models for UK SMEs
Liang, H. (2020) · ERA · doi:10.7488/era/625
Valuation of initial margin and model risk
Seitshiro, M. B. (2020) · Boloka Institutional Repository (North-west University)
- Authors
- Berg, D.
- Affiliations
- Norwegian Computing Center (NO)
- Corresponding author
- Berg, Daniel
- ORCID
- Berg, Daniel
- Venue
- Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2006-11-08
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 129-143
- ISSN
- 1524-1904 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-4025
- OpenAlex
- W2110767824
- Cited by
- 114
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 7.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- urn.nb.no
- Licence
- Locations
- Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry (publishedVersion)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Norges Teknisk-Naturvitenskapelige Universitet
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Corporate Insolvency and Governance
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Keywords
- bankruptcy prediction, generalized additive models, financial statements, out-of-sample validation, Norwegian companies
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