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Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility

Open access
Tadesse, Getaw, Algieri, Bernardina, Kalkuhl, Matthias, von Braun, Joachim·2014·Food Policy

Abstract

The objective of this study is to explore empirical evidence on the quantitative importance of supply, demand, and market shocks for price changes in international food commodity markets. To this end, it distinguishes between root, conditional, and internal drivers of price changes using three empirical models: (1) a price spike model where monthly food price returns (spikes) are estimated against oil prices, supply and demand shocks, and excessive speculative activity; (2) a volatility model where annualized monthly variability of food prices is estimated against the same set of variables plus a financial crises index; and (3) a trigger model that estimates extreme values of price spikes and volatility using quantile regressions. The results point to the increasing linkages among food, energy, and financial markets, which explain much of the observed food price spikes and volatility. While financial speculation amplifies short-term price spikes, oil price volatility intensifies medium-term price volatility.

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Metadata

Authors
Tadesse, G., Algieri, B., Kalkuhl, M., & von Braun, J.
Venue
Food Policy
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2014-08
Volume
47
Pages
117-128
ISSN
0306-9192 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2023936764
Cited by
298
References
29
FWCI
42.67
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
hybrid

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.08.014
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Tadesse, G., Algieri, B., Kalkuhl, M., & von Braun, J. (2014). Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility. Food Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.08.014

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

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