The DOI matches its Crossref record; 16 of the 16 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Classifying global catastrophic risks
Open accessAbstract
We present a novel classification framework for severe global catastrophic risk scenarios. Extending beyond existing work that identifies individual risk scenarios, we propose analysing global catastrophic risks along three dimensions: the critical systems affected, global spread mechanisms, and prevention and mitigation failures. The classification highlights areas of convergence between risk scenarios, which supports prioritisation of particular research and of policy interventions. It also points to potential knowledge gaps regarding catastrophic risks, and provides an interdisciplinary structure for mapping and tracking the multitude of factors that could contribute to global catastrophic risks.
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“Second, a risk is composed of hazards, vulnerabilities, and exposure, not just individual threats (IPCC, 2012; Avin et al., 2018; Currie and Ó hÉigeartaigh, 2018; Liu et al., 2018).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Avin et al., 2018
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“While there have been some alternative frameworks for classifying GCRs (Avin et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2018; Baum and Barrett, 2019), these have yet to be widely adopted.”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Avin et al., 2018
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Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
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Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
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(2009) · Disaster Prevention and Management An International Journal · doi:10.1108/dpm.2009.07318cae.003 · Cited by 409
Catastrophe: Risk and Response
Posner, R. A. (2004) · Cited by 388
The need for environmental horizon scanning
Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.04.008 · Cited by 291
Self-citationStrategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making
Cook, C. N., Inayatullah, S., Burgman, M. A., Sutherland, W. J., & Wintle, B. A. (2014) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.005 · Cited by 209
Self-citationAmanatidou, E., Butter, M., Carabias-Hütter, V., Totti Könnölä, A., Leis, M., Sarıtas, O., Schaper-Rinkel, P., & van Rij, V. (2012) · Science and Public Policy · doi:10.1093/scipol/scs017 · Cited by 173
Sustainability: Map the evidence
McKinnon, M. C., Cheng, S. H., Garside, R., Masuda, Y. J., & Miller, D. C. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/528185a · Cited by 104
Joint horizon scanning: identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
van Rij, V. (2010) · Science and Public Policy · doi:10.3152/030234210x484801 · Cited by 69
Integrating the planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk paradigms
Baum, S. D., & Handoh, I. C. (2014) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.024 · Cited by 66
Rees, M. J. (2003) · Cited by 50
Self-citationMorrison, K. D. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/440752a · Cited by 39
Feeding Everyone No Matter What
Denkenberger, D., & Pearce, J. (2015) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/c2015-0-04027-8 · Cited by 34
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Huggel, C., Bouwer, L. M., Juhola, S. K., Mechler, R., Muccione, V., Orlove, B., & Wallimann-Helmer, I. (2022) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03430-y · Cited by 126
Assessing climate change’s contribution to global catastrophic risk
Beard, S., Holt, L., Tzachor, A., Kemp, L., Avin, S., Torres, P., & Belfield, H. (2021) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2020.102673 · Cited by 98
Self-citationExistential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity
Sears, N. A. (2020) · Global Policy · doi:10.1111/1758-5899.12800 · Cited by 78
Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter
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Metadata
- Authors
- Avin, S., Wintle, B. C., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S. S., Sutherland, W. J., & Rees, M. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Avin, Shahar
- Venue
- Futures
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2018-09
- Volume
- 102
- Pages
- 20-26
- ISSN
- 0016-3287 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2789287982
- Cited by
- 116
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 5
- FWCI
- 21.05
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Futures (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Apollo (cc-by)
- Funders
- Arcadia Fund
- Templeton World Charity Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Nuclear Issues and Defense
- Keywords
- global catastrophic risk, risk classification, critical systems, risk prioritization, policy interventions, knowledge gaps
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