Cited by 126Risk Perception and ManagementDisaster Management and ResilienceNuclear Issues and Defense

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 16 of the 16 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Classifying global catastrophic risks

Open access

Avin, Shahar, Wintle, Bonnie C., Weitzdörfer, Julius, Ó hÉigeartaigh, Seán S., Sutherland, William J., Rees, Martin J.·2018·Futures

DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2018.02.001

Open this paper in CoChat — free account Open PDF

Abstract

We present a novel classification framework for severe global catastrophic risk scenarios. Extending beyond existing work that identifies individual risk scenarios, we propose analysing global catastrophic risks along three dimensions: the critical systems affected, global spread mechanisms, and prevention and mitigation failures. The classification highlights areas of convergence between risk scenarios, which supports prioritisation of particular research and of policy interventions. It also points to potential knowledge gaps regarding catastrophic risks, and provides an interdisciplinary structure for mapping and tracking the multitude of factors that could contribute to global catastrophic risks.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.futures.2018.02.001

Cites

16 of 16 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1259855 · Cited by 12,527
Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Chapin, F. S. I., Lambin, E., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H. J., et al. (2009) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-03180-140232 · Cited by 7,187
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030
Nationen, V. (2018) · Human Rights Documents online · doi:10.1163/2210-7975_hrd-9813-2015016 · Cited by 3,392
Untitled work
(2002) · Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford) · Cited by 421
Global Catastrophic Risks
(2009) · Disaster Prevention and Management An International Journal · doi:10.1108/dpm.2009.07318cae.003 · Cited by 409
Catastrophe: Risk and Response
Posner, R. A. (2004) · Cited by 388
The need for environmental horizon scanning
Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.04.008 · Cited by 291
Self-citation
Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making
Cook, C. N., Inayatullah, S., Burgman, M. A., Sutherland, W. J., & Wintle, B. A. (2014) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.005 · Cited by 209
Self-citation
On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues
Amanatidou, E., Butter, M., Carabias-Hütter, V., Totti Könnölä, A., Leis, M., Sarıtas, O., Schaper-Rinkel, P., & van Rij, V. (2012) · Science and Public Policy · doi:10.1093/scipol/scs017 · Cited by 173
Sustainability: Map the evidence
McKinnon, M. C., Cheng, S. H., Garside, R., Masuda, Y. J., & Miller, D. C. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/528185a · Cited by 104

Show all 16 references

Sorted by citations

The importance of achieving foundational Sustainable Development Goals in reducing global risk
Cernev, T., & Fenner, R. A. (2019) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2019.102492 · Cited by 217
The existential risk space of climate change
Huggel, C., Bouwer, L. M., Juhola, S. K., Mechler, R., Muccione, V., Orlove, B., & Wallimann-Helmer, I. (2022) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03430-y · Cited by 126
Assessing climate change’s contribution to global catastrophic risk
Beard, S., Holt, L., Tzachor, A., Kemp, L., Avin, S., Torres, P., & Belfield, H. (2021) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2020.102673 · Cited by 98
Self-citation
Existential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity
Sears, N. A. (2020) · Global Policy · doi:10.1111/1758-5899.12800 · Cited by 78
Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter
Cotton‐Barratt, O., Daniel, M., & Sandberg, A. (2020) · Global Policy · doi:10.1111/1758-5899.12786 · Cited by 64
Global catastrophic risk from lower magnitude volcanic eruptions
Mani, L., Tzachor, A., & Cole, P. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25021-8 · Cited by 63
Governing Boring Apocalypses: A new typology of existential vulnerabilities and exposures for existential risk research
Liu, H.-Y., Lauta, K. C., & Maas, M. M. (2018) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.04.009 · Cited by 59
A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk
Tang, A., & Kemp, L. (2021) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.720312 · Cited by 58
“While there have been some alternative frameworks for classifying GCRs (Avin et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2018; Baum and Barrett, 2019), these have yet to be widely adopted.”
BackgroundInfluential
International Politics in the Age of Existential Threats
Sears, N. A. (2020) · Journal of Global Security Studies · doi:10.1093/jogss/ogaa027 · Cited by 51
Current and Near-Term AI as a Potential Existential Risk Factor
Bucknall, B. S., & Dori-Hacohen, S. (2022) · Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on AI Ethics and Society · doi:10.1145/3514094.3534146 · Cited by 62
An analysis and evaluation of methods currently used to quantify the likelihood of existential hazards
Beard, S., Rowe, T. D., & Fox, J. (2019) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2019.102469 · Cited by 48
The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario
Moersdorf, J., Rivers, M., Denkenberger, D., Breuer, L., & Jehn, F. U. (2023) · Global Challenges · doi:10.1002/gch2.202300206 · Cited by 47
Existential risk, creativity & well-adapted science
Currie, A. (2018) · Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A · doi:10.1016/j.shpsa.2018.09.008 · Cited by 40
Android Noahs and embryo Arks: ectogenesis in global catastrophe survival and space colonization
Edwards, M. R. (2021) · International Journal of Astrobiology · doi:10.1017/s147355042100001x · Cited by 38
Governing Complexity: Design Principles for the Governance of Complex Global Catastrophic Risks
Kreienkamp, J., & Pegram, T. (2020) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/viaa074 · Cited by 41
Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight‐reducing catastrophes
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2022) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.14072 · Cited by 34
Preliminary Automated Determination of Edibility of Alternative Foods: Non-Targeted Screening for Toxins in Red Maple Leaf Concentrate
Pearce, J. M., Khaksari, M., & Denkenberger, D. (2019) · Plants · doi:10.3390/plants8050110 · Cited by 29
Working together to face humanity's greatest threats: Introduction to the Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk
Currie, A., & Ó hÉigeartaigh, S. (2018) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.07.003 · Cited by 21
Self-citation
Reforming EU Company Law to Secure the Future of European Business
Sjåfjell, B. (2021) · European Company and Financial Law Review · doi:10.1515/ecfr-2021-0009 · Cited by 21
A Safe Governance Space for Humanity: Necessary Conditions for the Governance of Global Catastrophic Risks
Fisher, L., & Sandberg, A. (2022) · Global Policy · doi:10.1111/1758-5899.13030 · Cited by 19
Existential Risk, Climate Change, and Nonideal Justice
McLaughlin, A. (2024) · The Monist · doi:10.1093/monist/onae007 · Cited by 19
Existential Risks to Humanity Should Concern International Policymakers and More Could Be Done in Considering Them at the International Governance Level
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2020) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.13566 · Cited by 19
Global policymakers and catastrophic risk
Nathan, C., & Hyams, K. (2021) · Policy Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11077-021-09444-0 · Cited by 18
Exploring dependencies among global environmental, socioeconomic, and technological risks
Qazi, A. J., & Al-Mhdawi, M. K. S. (2022) · Environmental Impact Assessment Review · doi:10.1016/j.eiar.2022.106912 · Cited by 17
Psychological Well-Being and Adaptation to the Risks of Digital World at a Young Age
Belinskaya, E. P., & Shaekhov, Z. D. (2023) · Moscow University Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.11621/lpj-23-35 · Cited by 17
The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2019) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.13398 · Cited by 17
Ripples on the Great Sea of Life: A Brief History of Existential Risk StudiesPreprint
Beard, S., & Torres, P. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3730000 · Cited by 17
Assumptions, uncertainty, and catastrophic/existential risk: National risk assessments need improved methods and stakeholder engagement
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2023) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.14123 · Cited by 16
Covid-19 pandemic and future global catastrophic risks as a challenge for health-care ethics
Szocik, K., & Abylkasymova, R. (2021) · International Journal of Human Rights in Healthcare · doi:10.1108/ijhrh-12-2020-0107 · Cited by 15
A forward-looking approach to climate change and the risk of societal collapse
Steel, D. P., Phillips, C., Giang, A., & Mintz‐Woo, K. (2024) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2024.103361 · Cited by 17
An interdisciplinary review of systemic risk factors leading up to existential risks
Undheim, T. A. (2024) · Progress in Disaster Science · doi:10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100326 · Cited by 15
Climate change, uncertainty, and global catastrophic risk
Baum, S. D. (2024) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2024.103432 · Cited by 21
Resilient foods for preventing global famine: a review of food supply interventions for global catastrophic food shocks including nuclear winter and infrastructure collapse
Martínez, J. B. G., Behr, J., Pearce, J. M., & Denkenberger, D. (2025) · Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition · doi:10.1080/10408398.2024.2431207 · Cited by 20
Accumulating evidence using crowdsourcing and machine learning: A living bibliography about existential risk and global catastrophic risk
Shackelford, G. E., Kemp, L., Rhodes, C., Sundaram, L. S., hÉigeartaigh, S. Ó., Beard, S., Belfield, H., Weitzdörfer, J., Avin, S., Sørebø, D., et al. (2019) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2019.102508 · Cited by 15
Self-citation
Sustainable Development Goals and risks: The Yin and the Yang of the paths towards sustainability
Eckert, N., Rusch, G. M., Lyytimäki, J. M., Lepenies, R., Giacona, F., Panzacchi, M., Mosoni, C., Pedersen, A. B., Jyri Mustajoki, A., Mille, R., et al. (2022) · AMBIO · doi:10.1007/s13280-022-01800-5 · Cited by 18
Assessing natural global catastrophic risks
Baum, S. D. (2022) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05660-w · Cited by 18
The Weaponization of Emerging Technologies and Their Impact on Global Risk: A Perspective from the PfPC Emerging Security Challenges Working Group
Rickli, J.-M., & Vllasi, G. (2025) · Connections The Quarterly Journal · doi:10.11610/connections.24.1.07 · Cited by 13
Blueprint for forever: Securing human far futures with ectogenesis
Edwards, M. R. (2022) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2022.103085 · Cited by 12
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review
Jehn, F. U., Engler, J., Arnscheidt, C. W., Wache, M., Ilin, E., Cook, L., Sundaram, L. S., Hanusch, F., & Kemp, L. (2025) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025 · Cited by 12
Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation
Jones, A. W., Bridle, S., Denby, K., Bhunnoo, R., Morton, R., Stanbrough, L., Coupe, B., Pilley, V., Benton, T. G., Falloon, P., et al. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su152014783 · Cited by 12
Legal Priorities Research: A Research AgendaPreprint
Winter, C. K., Schuett, J., Martínez, E., Arsdale, S. V., Araújo, R., Hollman, N., Sebo, J., Stawasz, A., O’Keefe, C., & Rotola, G. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3931256 · Cited by 12
Optimizing Island Refuges against global Catastrophic and Existential Biological Threats: Priorities and Preparations
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2021) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.13735 · Cited by 11
In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help
Undheim, T. A. (2024) · Technology in Society · doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102505 · Cited by 10
Four Global Catastrophic Risks – A Personal View
Blong, R. (2021) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2021.740695 · Cited by 10
NASA and the Search for Technosignatures: A Report from the NASA Technosignatures Workshop
Balbi, A. (2018) · Cited by 10
Why shouldn’t we cut the human-biosphere umbilical cord?
Holt, L. (2021) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2021.102821 · Cited by 9
R&D priority-setting for global catastrophic risks: The case of the NASA planetary defense mission
Janzwood, S. (2021) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2021.104225 · Cited by 10
Understanding energy system dynamics in a changing climate: Insights for first responders and risk managers
Mille, J., Charlton, D., de Ruiter, M., Stevens, R., Haklay, M., & Edwards, S. J. (2025) · iScience · doi:10.1016/j.isci.2025.113320 · Cited by 9
Internet regulation and crisis-related resilience: from Covid-19 to existential risks
Asmolov, G. (2022) · The Communication Review · doi:10.1080/10714421.2022.2129124 · Cited by 9
Review of potential high-leverage and inexpensive mitigations for reducing risk in epidemics and pandemics
Manheim, D., & Denkenberger, D. (2020) · Journal of Global Health Reports · doi:10.29392/001c.12530 · Cited by 8
Prioritization of Different Kinds of Natural Disasters and Low-Probability, High-Consequence Events
Fujita, M., & Yamashiki, Y. (2022) · Journal of Disaster Research · doi:10.20965/jdr.2022.p0246 · Cited by 7
Known and Unknown Transboundary Infectious Diseases as Hybrid Threats
Valdivia-Granda, W. (2021) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2021.668062 · Cited by 7
6. Natural Global Catastrophic Risks
Mani, L., Erwin, D. H., & Johnson, L. N. (2022) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0336.06 · Cited by 7
Global Social Risks in the Field of Labor: Lack of Decent Employment in Ukraine
Novak, I., & Zhuk, І. (2023) · Demography and social economy · doi:10.15407/dse2023.02.110 · Cited by 6
Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk
Arnscheidt, C. W., Beard, S., Hobson, T., Ingram, P., Kemp, L., Mani, L., Marcoci, A., Mbeva, K., hÉigeartaigh, S. Ó., Sandberg, A., et al. (2025) · Global Sustainability · doi:10.1017/sus.2025.20 · Cited by 7
Self-citation
Pandemic refuges: Lessons from 2 years of COVID‐19
Baum, S. D., & Adams, V. M. (2022) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.13953 · Cited by 6
19. The Cartography of Global Catastrophic Governance
Rhodes, C., & Kemp, L. (2024) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0360.19 · Cited by 5
A Research-Based Approach to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. A Prerequisite to Sustainable BusinessPreprint
Sjåfjell, B., Häyhä, T., & Cornell, S. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3526744 · Cited by 5
Seven Questions for Existential Risk StudiesPreprint
Sundaram, L., Maas, M. M., & Beard, S. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4118618 · Cited by 6
2. Democratising Risk
Cremer, Z., & Kemp, L. (2024) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0360.02 · Cited by 4
Foresight methods for multilateral collaboration in space situational awareness (SSA) policy & operations
Peldszus, R. (2018) · Journal of Space Safety Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.jsse.2018.07.001 · Cited by 4
Mapping Australia's Risk Landscape: A Comparative Analysis of Global Catastrophic Risks and Traditional HazardsPreprint
Graham, J., Boyd, M., Sadler, G., & Noetel, M. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5253625 · Cited by 4
Historical futures and the pull of the past: on the poverty of imagination
Simon, Z. B. (2025) · Rethinking History · doi:10.1080/13642529.2025.2490390 · Cited by 3
Managing and mitigating future public health risks: Planetary boundaries, global catastrophic risk, and inclusive wealth
McLaughlin, E., & Beck, M. P. (2025) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.17703 · Cited by 3
1. A Brief History of Existential Risk and the People Who Worked to Mitigate It
Beard, S., & Bronson, R. (2023) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0336.01 · Cited by 3
Conceptual Issues in COVID-19 Pandemic: An Example of Global Catastrophic Risk
Szocik, K. (2020) · Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics · doi:10.1017/s0963180120000687 · Cited by 3
Resource and traffic control optimization in MMAP[c]/PH[c]/S queueing system with PH retrial times and catastrophe phenomenon
Raj, R., & Jain, V. (2023) · Telecommunication Systems · doi:10.1007/s11235-023-01053-x · Cited by 3
Is artificial intelligence a hazardous technology? Economic trade-off model
Herzog, B. (2024) · European Journal of Futures Research · doi:10.1186/s40309-024-00241-5 · Cited by 3
Systemic contributions to global catastrophic riskPreprint
Arnscheidt, C. W., Beard, S., Hobson, T., Ingram, P., Kemp, L., Mani, L., Marcoci, A., Mbeva, K., hÉigeartaigh, S. Ó., Sandberg, A., et al. (2024) · SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/wcj9e · Cited by 3
Self-citation
Economic assessment of SRM under socio-political and geophysical tipping dynamics
Estrada, F., Bastien-Olvera, B. A., Calderón-Bustamante, Ó., Altamirano, M. A., Muñoz-Sánchez, R., Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Botzen, W. J. W. (2026) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ae33df · Cited by 2
Lessons from COVID-19 for GCR governance: a research agenda
Rietveld, J., Hobson, T., Avin, S., Sundaram, L. S., & Mani, L. (2022) · F1000Research · doi:10.12688/f1000research.111331.1 · Cited by 2
Self-citation
ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS TO SUPPORT THE POPULATION AND ELIMINATE THE CONSEQUENCES OF APPLYING EMERGENCY MEASURES TO PROTECT THE COUNTRY'S SECURITY
Шаймардановна, К. Г., Gridneva, Y. E., Assanova, S. S., Syzdykova, K., & Sauranbay, S. B. (2020) · Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues · doi:10.9770/jssi.2020.10.1(7 · Cited by 2
Earth Observation Data Cubes
Giuliani, G., Câmara, G., Killough, B., & Minchin, S. (2020) · MDPI eBooks · doi:10.3390/books978-3-03928-093-3 · Cited by 2
Pre-planning transformation to avoid collapse—Is it possible?
Ruhl, J. B., & Ruhl, H. J. (2022) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2022.103058 · Cited by 4
Life-Suspending Technologies, Cryonics, and Catastrophic Risks
Sauchelli, A. (2024) · Science and Engineering Ethics · doi:10.1007/s11948-024-00498-w · Cited by 2
12. Global Catastrophic Risk From Low Magnitude Volcanic Eruptions
Mani, L., Tzachor, A., & Cole, P. (2024) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0360.12 · Cited by 1
The Agents of Resilience
Asmolov, G. (2024) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003375296-7 · Cited by 1
Taking Finance Seriously
Sjåfjell, B. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009483971.004 · Cited by 1
Capturing the expanding research areas of the future of humanity within the field of futures studies: The case for a transcendental futures subdiscipline
Tonn, B. E., & Hill, C. J. (2025) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2025.103692 · Cited by 1
Cascading global catastrophic risks toward 2075: How optimism and expertise shape perceptions of systemic threats
Duncan, I., Lin, J. A.-J., Gill, L., & Undheim, T. A. (2026) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2025.103757 · Cited by 1
A strategic lifecycle sustainability framework for cislunar habitat deployment
Maldonado-Romo, J., Ponce, P., & Montesinos, L. (2026) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2026.103818 · Cited by 1
The Impact of COVID-19 on Values and Religiosity in a Multi-Ethnic Population
Koh, M.-Y., Lai, S.-T., Lim, K. S., Lim, S. Y. H., Chin, J., Chia, Z.-J., Chan, M. M.-Y., Khor, S.-B., Fong, S., & Tan, C. (2023) · Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health · doi:10.1177/10105395231207238 · Cited by 1
Introduction
Pellegrino, G. (2023) · Handbooks in philosophy · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-07002-0_1 · Cited by 1
5. Existential Risk, Creativity and Well-Adapted Science
Currie, A. (2024) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0360.05 · Cited by 1
A Transformative Concept: From Data Being Passive Objects to Data Being Active Subjects
Plag, H., & Jules-Plag, S. (2019) · Data · doi:10.3390/data4040135 · Cited by 1
Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sun-reducing catastrophesPreprint
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1927222/v2 · Cited by 1
Precognition of Known And Unknown Biothreats: A Risk-Based Approach
Lapitan, R. L. (2024) · Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases · doi:10.1089/vbz.2023.0169 · Cited by 1
Survivability and failure risks of steel frame structures: conceptual framework
Chichulina, K., & Chichulin, C. (2019) · ACADEMIC JOURNAL Series Industrial Machine Building Civil Engineering · doi:10.26906/znp.2019.52.1682
Future Political Framework for Moral Enhancement
Rakić, V., & Ćirković, M. M. (2020) · Journal of Ethics and Emerging Technologies · doi:10.55613/jeet.v30i1.78
Why catastrophic events, human enhancement and progress in robotics may limit individual health rights
Szocik, K. (2022) · Bioethics News · doi:10.1007/s40592-021-00150-4
Foundations
Taylor, N. B. (2023) · Rethinking peace and conflict studies · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-24315-8_2
Psychedelic therapies: The case for a new focus in the EU’s mental health care approach
Hawrot, T. (2023) · Open Access Government · doi:10.56367/oag-039-110-edit
Introduction
Pellegrino, G. (2023) · Handbooks in philosophy · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-16960-2_1-1
Open Access: Internet regulation and crisis-related resilience: From Covid-19 to existential risks
Asmolov, G. (2023) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003436768-5
Responding to Existential Risks: Grounds, Targets, and Strategies
Usami, M. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-99-4771-3_5
Globalization and Its Impact on World and National Economies
(2023) · Advances in business strategy and competitive advantage book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-7998-8669-3.ch003
Comparison between TED Talks and scientific articles: global catastrophe risks
Vitor, A. D. V., Maximo, E. Z., de Souza, J. A., & Costa, E. M. D. (2023) · Cuadernos de Educación y Desarrollo · doi:10.55905/cuadv15n10-070
How the first two decades of the twenty-first century are reshaping the science world. The perspective of synthetic organic chemistry
Trombini, C. (2023) · doi:10.30682/annalesps2301g
A safe governance space for humanity: necessary conditions for the governance of Global Catastrophic Risks
Fisher, L., & Sandberg, A. (2022) · Journal and proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales · doi:10.5962/p.389580
6. An Analysis and Evaluation of Methods Currently Used to Quantify the Likelihood of Existential Hazards
Beard, S., Rowe, T., & Fox, J. (2024) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0360.06

Authors: Avin, S., Wintle, B. C., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S. S., Sutherland, W. J., & Rees, M. J.
Affiliations: University of Cambridge (GB)
Corresponding author: Avin, Shahar
ORCID: Avin, Shahar
Wintle, Bonnie C.
Weitzdörfer, Julius
Sutherland, William J.
Rees, Martin J.
Venue: Futures
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2018-09
Volume: 102
Pages: 20-26
ISSN: 0016-3287 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2018.02.001
OpenAlex: W2789287982
Cited by: 116
References: 16
Citations by year: 2026: 6 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 5
FWCI: 21.05
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Futures (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Apollo (cc-by)
Funders: Arcadia Fund
Templeton World Charity Foundation
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Nuclear Issues and Defense
Keywords: global catastrophic risk, risk classification, critical systems, risk prioritization, policy interventions, knowledge gaps

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Classifying global catastrophic risks

Abstract

Overview

Integrity signals

Verification

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Self-check

Citations

Cites

Cited by

Related

Metadata

Record

About these checks