Climate variability and educational attainment: Evidence from rural Ethiopia
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This paper examines the effects of climate variability on schooling outcomes in rural Ethiopia. Investments in education serve as an important pathway out of poverty, yet reduced agricultural productivity due to droughts or temperature shocks may affect educational attainment if children receive poorer nutrition during early childhood, are required to participate in household income generation during schooling ages, or if households can no longer pay for school-related expenses. We link longitudinal socioeconomic, demographic, and schooling data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey to high-resolution gridded climate data to measure exposure to temperature and precipitation relative to historical norms. We then estimate a set of multivariate regression models to understand how climate variability impacts grade attainment and school enrollment. Results indicate that early life climatic conditions - namely milder temperatures during all seasons and greater rainfall during the summer agricultural season - are associated with an increased likelihood of a child having completed any education. In addition, greater summer rainfall during both early life and school ages is associated with having completed any schooling as well as with attending school at the time of the survey. These findings suggest that future climate change may reduce children's school participation in rural Sub-Saharan Africa, slowing progress toward human development goals and poverty alleviation.
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Climate change may diminish educational outcomes for some populations, due to its negative effects on agricultural productivity and household income.
“As climate change itself may diminish educational outcomes for some populations, due to its negative effects on agricultural productivity and household income [666,667], this makes providing high-quality educational interventions globally all the more important.”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [666]
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Verdin, A., Grace, K. L., Davenport, F., Funk, C. C., & Husak, G. J. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-02974-9 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“…in less-developed regions indicates that adverse health and development impacts are experienced in the short term following an extreme temperature event, as well as far into the future (Grace et al. 2015; Davenport et al. 2017; Randell and Gray 2016; Randell and Gray 2019; Burke et al. 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialClimate change and international migration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Effects and transmission channels
Aurélien, A. B. H., & Marthe, E. M. (2025) · Environmental Economics and Policy Studies · doi:10.1007/s10018-024-00433-0 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Pham, T. (2025) · Current Issues in Comparative Education · doi:10.52214/cice.v27i1.13331 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
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Essays on development economics
Ahmed, M. H. (2023) · doi:10.26481/dis.20230516mh · Cited by 2 · see citing works
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Weather variability and malnutrition among farming households in Ethiopia
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“…have lasting effects on long-term human capital outcomes, including health (Rose 1999; Cornwell & Inder 2015; Freudenreich et al. 2022; Pasha et al. 2023), education (Alderman 2006; Akresh et al. 2012; Randell & Gray 2016; Pham 2022), and labor market earnings (Maccini & Yang 2009; Carrillo 2020).”
The impacts of seasonal weather anomalies on Italian farms’ total factor productivity
Baldoni, E., Pagliacci, F., & Coderoni, S. (2025) · European Review of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1093/erae/jbaf063 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
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“Heat extremes during the previous agricultural season may have contributed to the loss of livelihood income and subsequent reductions in food availability, thereby leading to poor health and nutrition (Randell and Gray 2016).”
InfluentialNoor, J., Flanagan, E., Lacap, L. M., Farooq, M., Bezgrebelna, M., Fung, K., Andari, S., Anthonj, C., Boateng, G. O., Gislason, M., et al. (2026) · The Lancet Public Health · doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(26)00075-7 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
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“, 2019), or displace students and teachers permanently (Anderson, 2019) or lead to lower academic performance (Randell et al., 2016; Chuang et al., 2018).”
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The social development model of immigrants to Mars based on differential equation
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Exposure, Contemporaneousness and the Effect of Droughts on Children's Cognitive DevelopmentPreprint
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Essays on Income Shocks and Human Capital
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Essays on Rural Household Decision-Making under Climate Risk
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Using Geographic Data in Environmental Sociology
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Detour from the Poverty Reduction Path
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Stewards of Tomorrow: Best Practices for Transformative Environmental EducationPreprint
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Climate, environment, geography, and spatial education inequality in sub-Saharan Africa
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“And given the role of climate change and unexpected climate shocks on increasing OOS populations (Randell & Gray, 2016, 2019; Serdeczny et al., 2017), there is an urgent need to design policies which may mitigate and counterbalance these negative climate impacts within the educational sector.”
Martey, E., Asante, B. O., Prah, S., & Etwire, P. M. (2025) · International Journal of Educational Development · doi:10.1016/j.ijedudev.2025.103401
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Climate change and food security in Ethiopia
Ghebremicael, S. T., Gray, C., & Randell, H. (2026) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-025-00516-4
“…data from Ethiopia have found that drought can reduce fertilizer use (Alem et al., 2010), alter migration patterns (Gray & Mueller, 2012), undermine educational attainment (Randell & Gray, 2016 ), reduce household consumption (Gao & Mills, 2018), and lower agricultural revenues (Das et al., 2023).”
Self-citationWu, X., Zhao, J., & Tian, J. (2026) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-026-04115-6
“Reduced income may lead to lower school enrollment rates, increased dropout risks, and declining educational performance (Randell and Gray 2016).”
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Remittances, Financial Inclusion, and Food Insecurity: Evidence From Cameroon
Mukong, A. K., Ntuli, H., Aquilas, N. A., & Nyambe, J. M. (2026) · World Food Policy · doi:10.1002/wfp2.70025
The impacts of temperature on reading and math test scores in West and Central Africa
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“For example, a study from Ethiopia shows that the negative impact of heat on university entrance exam performance is larger for boys compared to girls (Srivastava et al., 2024).”
InfluentialDrought Exposure and Gender Disparities in School Dropout Among Children in IndiaPreprint
Jana, A., Pathak, P. K., Chattopadhyay, A., & Ghosh, R. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10519589/v1
A sociological research regarding the interaction between educational practices and climate
Gürbüz, M., & Sever, M. (2026) · SN Social Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43545-026-01745-6
“Randell and Gray (2016, p.111) emphasized that climate affects the educational institution in Africa, and further noted (Randell and Gray 2019 , p. 8840) that hot climates have negative effects on educational institutions in Asia.”
Eshetu, S., & Feleke, T. G. (2026) · Plant-Environment Interactions · doi:10.1002/pei3.70207
Drought, women’s time poverty, and the development costs of water collection in Sub-Saharan Africa
Wang, X., & Liu, W. (2026) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107592
- Authors
- Randell, H., & Gray, C.
- Affiliations
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (US)
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- Corresponding author
- Randell, Heather
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2016-11
- Volume
- 41
- Pages
- 111-123
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6594713
- OpenAlex
- W2528937361
- Cited by
- 81
- References
- 62
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 3
- FWCI
- 5.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council
- Swedish International Development Agency
- United States Agency for International Development
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare
- Keywords
- climate variability, educational attainment, student enrollment, grade attainment, thermal shock, precipitation shocks, drought, rural Ethiopia, child nutrition, school participation, climate change and education, human development
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