Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Cites
Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market
Kuypers, T. (2000) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840050151449 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games
Boulier, B. L., & Stekler, H. O. (2003) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(01)00144-3 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
BRIER, G. W. (1950) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078%3c0001:vofeit%3e2.0.co;2 · cited 1×
“The quadratic loss, which we will denote as L2, is sometimes referred to as the Brier score, due to the fact that it was introduced by Brier (1950) as a way of evaluating weather forecasts.”
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Dolores: a model that predicts football match outcomes from all over the world
Constantinou, A. C. (2019) · Machine Learning · doi:10.1007/s10994-018-5703-7 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Predictions of european basketball match results with machine learning algorithms
Lampis, T., Ioannis, N., Vasilios, V., & Stavrianna, D. (2023) · Journal of Sports Analytics · doi:10.3233/jsa-220639 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting
Dmochowski, J. P. (2023) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0287601 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
- Authors
- Hvattum, L. M., & Arntzen, H.
- Affiliations
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
- Molde University College (NO)
- Corresponding author
- Hvattum, Lars Magnus
- ORCID
- Hvattum, Lars Magnus
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2010-07
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 460-470
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2063948020
- Cited by
- 288
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 27 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 3.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Sports Performance and Training
- Keywords
- Elo rating, match outcome prediction, soccer, sports betting markets, team rating, forecasting model comparison
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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