Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market
Abstract
The efficiency of the fixed odds betting market for football in England is investigated. It is the efficiency of how market participants utilize available information that is tested. A model of bookmaker behaviour is presented in which the bookmaker maximizes their expected share of the total amount bet. It is found that an expected profit maximizing bookmaker could set market inefficient odds. Several empirical tests using the ordered probit model with data on prices and publicly available information are carried out. Evidence of market inefficiency is identified offering profitable betting opportunities.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The seminal findings of Kuypers [13] and Levitt [23] imply that sportsbooks may sometimes deliberately propose values that deviate from their estimated median to entice a preponderance of bets on the side that maximizes excess error.
“The seminal findings of Kuypers [13] and Levitt [23], however, imply that sportsbooks may sometimes deliberately propose values that deviate from their estimated median to entice a preponderance of bets on the side that maximizes excess error.”
From A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting (2023) · cites this paper as [13]
Cites
EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK*
Malkiel, B. G., & Fama, E. F. (1970) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00518.x · Cited by 15,733 · see citing works
Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work
Fama, E. F. (1970) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.2307/2325486 · Cited by 13,635 · see citing works
Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries
Thaler, R. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1988) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.2.2.161 · Cited by 621 · see citing works
Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors
Ali, M. M. (1977) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260600 · Cited by 397 · see citing works
The Formation of Inflationary Expectations
Figlewski, S., & Wachtel, P. A. (1981) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.2307/1924211 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
HORSE RACING: TESTING THE EFFICIENT MARKETS MODEL
Snyder, W. W. (1978) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1978.tb02051.x · Cited by 237 · see citing works
Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market
GANDAR, J., ZUBER, R., O'BRIEN, T., & RUSSO, B. (1988) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02617.x · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Peel, D. A., & Thomas, D. A. (1988) · Scottish Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9485.1988.tb01049.x · Cited by 180 · see citing works
Subjective Information and Market Efficiency in a Betting Market
Figlewski, S. (1979) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260740 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Beating the Spread: Testing the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games
Zuber, R. A., Gandar, J. M., & Bowers, B. D. (1985) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261332 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Information, Prices and Efficiency in a Fixed-Odds Betting Market
Pope, P. F., & Peel, D. A. (1989) · Economica · doi:10.2307/2554281 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting
Asch, P., Malkiel, B. G., & Quandt, R. E. (1984) · The Journal of Business · doi:10.1086/296257 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
On the Efficiency and Equity of Betting Markets
Dowie, J. (1976) · Economica · doi:10.2307/2553203 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Sauer, R. D. O., Brajer, V., Ferris, S. P., & Marr, M. W. (1988) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261532 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Some Evidence of Insider Knowledge in Horse Race Betting in Britain
Crafts, N. F. R. (1985) · Economica · doi:10.2307/2553853 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
An Examination of Market Efficiency in British Racetrack Betting
Gabriel, P. E., & Marsden, J. R. (1990) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261710 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Some Evidence of the Efficiency of a Speculative Market
Ali, M. M. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1914189 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Hausch, D. B., & Ziemba, W. T. (1985) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.31.4.381 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Testing efficiency in gambling markets
Even, W. E., & Noble, N. R. (1992) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036849200000106 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Horse Racing: Testing the Efficient Markets Model
Snyder, W. W. (1978) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.2307/2326943 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
An estimation of market efficiency in the NFL point spread betting market
Lacey, N. (1990) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036849000000056 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Rollin, J., & Rollin, G. (1994) · Headline eBooks · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting: Further Evidence and a Correction
Asch, P., Malkiel, B. G., & Quandt, R. E. (1986) · The Journal of Business · doi:10.1086/296321 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Betting patterns in early and late races: an exploitable opportunity?
Johnson, J., & Bruce, A. C. (1992) · ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Why are Gambling Markets Organised so Differently from Financial Markets?
Levitt, S. D. (2004) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00207.x · Cited by 377 · see citing works
Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football
Hvattum, L. M., & Arntzen, H. (2010) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.10.002 · Cited by 288 · see citing works
OUTCOME UNCERTAINTY AND THE COUCH POTATO AUDIENCE
Forrest, D., Simmons, R., & Buraimo, B. (2005) · Scottish Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9485.2005.00360.x · Cited by 258 · see citing works
REFERENCE‐DEPENDENT PREFERENCES, LOSS AVERSION, AND LIVE GAME ATTENDANCE
Coates, D., Humphreys, B. R., & Zhou, L. (2014) · Economic Inquiry · doi:10.1111/ecin.12061 · Cited by 227 · see citing works
Odds setters as forecasters: the case of English football
Forrest, D., Goddard, J., & Simmons, R. (2005) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.03.003 · Cited by 245 · see citing works
Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football
Goddard, J. A. (2004) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2004.08.002 · Cited by 195 · see citing works
Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed‐odds betting
Goddard, J. A., & Asimakopoulos, I. G. (2004) · Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1002/for.877 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
The impact of managerial change on team performance in professional sports
Audas, R., Dobson, S., & Goddard, J. A. (2002) · Journal of Economics and Business · doi:10.1016/s0148-6195(02)00120-0 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
pi-football: A Bayesian network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes
Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N., & Neil, M. (2012) · Knowledge-Based Systems · doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2012.07.008 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Within-season dismissal of football coaches: Statistical analysis of causes and consequences
Tena, J. D. D., & Forrest, D. (2006) · European Journal of Operational Research · doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2006.05.024 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football
Forrest, D., & Simmons, R. (2007) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840701522895 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Stekler, H. O., Sendor, D., & Verlander, R. (2010) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.01.003 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Vlastakis, N., Dotsis, G., & Markellos, R. N. (2007) · Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1002/for.1085 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Dolores: a model that predicts football match outcomes from all over the world
Constantinou, A. C. (2019) · Machine Learning · doi:10.1007/s10994-018-5703-7 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Efficiency of online football betting markets
Angelini, G., & Angelis, L. D. (2018) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.008 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Why are Gambling Markets Organized so Differently from Financial MarketsPreprint
Levitt, S. D. (2004) · SSRN Electronic Journal · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Andrikogiannopoulou, A., & Papakonstantinou, F. (2019) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhz127 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. E. (2013) · Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports · doi:10.1515/jqas-2012-0036 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Asset Pricing and Sports Betting
Moskowitz, T. J. (2021) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.13082 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others
Buhagiar, R., Cortis, D., & Newall, P. (2018) · Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2018.01.010 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Sung, H., & Mills, B. M. (2017) · Sport Management Review · doi:10.1016/j.smr.2017.12.002 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price
Bell, A. R., Brooks, C., Matthews, D. L., & Sutcliffe, C. M. S. (2011) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2011.577017 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Sabotage in Tournaments with Heterogeneous Contestants: Empirical Evidence from the Soccer Pitch
Deutscher, C., Frick, B., Gürtler, O., & Prinz, J. (2013) · Scandinavian Journal of Economics · doi:10.1111/sjoe.12036 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Towards smart-data: Improving predictive accuracy in long-term football team performance
Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. (2017) · Knowledge-Based Systems · doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2017.03.005 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Behavioral complexity of British gambling advertising
Newall, P. W. S. (2017) · Addiction Research & Theory · doi:10.1080/16066359.2017.1287901 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Information Salience, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns: The Case of British Soccer Betting
Palomino, F. A., Renneboog, L. D. R., & Zhang, C. (2008) · Journal of Corporate Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2008.12.001 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Structural characteristics of fixed-odds sports betting products
Newall, P. W. S., Russell, A. M. T., & Hing, N. (2021) · Journal of Behavioral Addictions · doi:10.1556/2006.2021.00008 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
SENTIMENT BIAS AND ASSET PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM SPORTS BETTING MARKETS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
Feddersen, A., Humphreys, B. R., & Soebbing, B. P. (2016) · Economic Inquiry · doi:10.1111/ecin.12404 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Sentimental Preferences and the Organizational Regime of Betting Markets
Franck, E. P., Verbeek, E., & Nüesch, S. (2011) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.4284/0038-4038-78.2.502 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Live-odds gambling advertising and consumer protection
Newall, P. W. S., Ankush, T., Walasek, L., & Meyer, C. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0216876 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
PARX model for football match predictions
Angelini, G., & Angelis, L. D. (2017) · Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1002/for.2471 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
National Sentiment and Economic Behavior
Braun, S. T., & Kvasnicka, M. (2011) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002511414718 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
The Louis–Schmelling Paradox and the League Standing Effect Reconsidered
Humphreys, B. R., & Zhou, L. (2015) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002515587260 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
‘It’s basically everywhere’: young adults’ perceptions of gambling advertising in the UK
Torrance, J., Roderique‐Davies, G., Thomas, S. L., Davies, N., & John, B. (2020) · Health Promotion International · doi:10.1093/heapro/daaa126 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Do national soccer results really impact on the stock market?
Ashton, J. K., Gerrard, B., & Hudson, R. S. (2010) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036841003689762 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Inter‐market Arbitrage in Betting
Franck, E. P., Verbeek, E., & Nüesch, S. (2012) · Economica · doi:10.1111/ecca.12009 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Profiting from arbitrage and odds biases of the European football gambling market
Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. (2013) · The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics · doi:10.5750/jgbe.v7i2.630 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
OPTIMAL PRICE SETTING IN FIXED‐ODDS BETTING MARKETS UNDER INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY
Makropoulou, V., & Markellos, R. N. (2011) · Scottish Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9485.2011.00557.x · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Local Broadcast Viewership in Major League Soccer
Sung, H., Mills, B. M., & Mondello, M. J. (2018) · Journal of Sport Management · doi:10.1123/jsm.2018-0022 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Mechtel, M., Bäker, A., Brändle, T., & Vetter, K. (2010) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002510388478 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Are betting markets efficient? Evidence from European Football Championships
Direr, A. (2013) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2011.602010 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting
Feddersen, A., Humphreys, B. R., & Soebbing, B. P. (2016) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002516656726 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets
Angelini, G., Angelis, L. D., & Singleton, C. (2021) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.05.012 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Does Bettor Sentiment Affect Bookmaker Pricing?
Flepp, R., Nüesch, S., & Franck, E. P. (2014) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002514521427 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
A machine learning perspective on responsible gambling
Hassanniakalager, A., & Newall, P. W. S. (2019) · Behavioural Public Policy · doi:10.1017/bpp.2019.9 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Request-a-bet sports betting products indicate patterns of bettor preference and bookmaker profits
Newall, P. W. S., Walasek, L., Kiesel, R. V., Ludvig, E. A., & Meyer, C. (2020) · Journal of Behavioral Addictions · doi:10.1556/2006.2020.00054 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Who uses custom sports betting products?
Newall, P. W. S., Cassidy, R., Walasek, L., Ludvig, E. A., & Meyer, C. (2020) · Addiction Research & Theory · doi:10.1080/16066359.2020.1792887 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
How Do Markets Function? An Empirical Analysis of Gambling on the National Football League
Levitt, S. D. (2003) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w9422 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market
Elaad, G., Reade, J. J., & Singleton, C. (2019) · Finance research letters · doi:10.1016/j.frl.2019.09.006 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
A conditional fuzzy inference approach in forecasting
Hassanniakalager, A., Sermpinis, G., Stasinakis, C., & Verousis, T. (2019) · European Journal of Operational Research · doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2019.11.006 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Are Sports Betting Markets Semi-Strong Efficient? Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic
Meier, P. F., Flepp, R., & Franck, E. P. (2021) · International Journal of Sport Finance · doi:10.32731/ijsf/163.082021.01 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Paul, R. J., Weinbach, A. P., & Humphreys, B. R. (2013) · The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics · doi:10.5750/jgbe.v5i2.569 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data
Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., Deutscher, C., & Makarewicz, T. (2023) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/15270025231204997 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Weather biases in the NFL totals market
Borghesi, R. (2008) · Applied Financial Economics · doi:10.1080/09603100701335432 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Gambling with leadership succession in Brazilian football: head coach turnovers and team performance
Galdino, M., Wicker, P. V., & Soebbing, B. P. (2020) · Sport Business and Management An International Journal · doi:10.1108/sbm-06-2020-0059 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Football is becoming more predictable; network analysis of 88 thousand matches in 11 major leagues
Maimone, V. M., & Yasseri, T. (2021) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.210617 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Optimal Betting Strategies for Simultaneous Games
Grant, A. R., Johnstone, D. J., & Kwon, O. K. (2008) · Decision Analysis · doi:10.1287/deca.1080.0106 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball
Angelis, L. D., & Reade, J. J. (2022) · Annals of Operations Research · doi:10.1007/s10479-022-04950-7 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Bernardo, G., Ruberti, M., & Verona, R. (2018) · The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.qref.2018.08.007 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Forrest, D. (2008) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-044450744-0.50023-8 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Corruption and Referee Bias in Football: The Case of CalciopoliPreprint
Distaso, W., Leonida, L., Patti, D. M. A., & Navarra, P. M. (2012) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2004385 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Effects of inducements on sports gambling and decision-errors: An experimental study
Ceallaigh, D. O., Timmons, S., Robertson, D. A., & Lunn, P. (2025) · Journal of Behavioral Addictions · doi:10.1556/2006.2025.00056 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Contest incentives, team effort, and betting market outcomes in European football
Feddersen, A., Humphreys, B. R., & Soebbing, B. P. (2021) · European Sport Management Quarterly · doi:10.1080/16184742.2021.1898432 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Statistical risk warnings in gambling
Newall, P. W. S., Walasek, L., Hassanniakalager, A., Russell, A. M. T., Ludvig, E. A., & Browne, M. (2020) · Behavioural Public Policy · doi:10.1017/bpp.2020.59 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Forecasting the FIFA World Cup – Combining Result- and Goal-Based Team Ability Parameters
Robberechts, P., & Davis, J. J. (2019) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-17274-9_2 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Over the Moon or Sick as a Parrot: The Effects of Football Results on a Club's Share PricePreprint
Bell, A. R., Brooks, C., Matthews, D. L., & Sutcliffe, C. M. S. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1428452 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Weak form information efficiency in betting markets
Williams, L. V. (2005) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511493614.003 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Balancing the book: Is it necessary and sufficient?
Stark, D., & Cortis, D. (2017) · The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics · doi:10.5750/jgbe.v11i1.1280 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
How quickly is temporary market inefficiency removed?
Marshall, B. R. (2009) · The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.qref.2009.04.006 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
The Italian Job: Match Rigging, Career Concerns and Media Concentration in Serie aPreprint
Boeri, T., & Severgnini, B. (2008) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1282967 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
A study of a market anomaly: “White Men Can’t Jump”, but would you bet on it?
Igan, D. O., Pinheiro, M., & Smith, J. B. (2015) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2015.02.005 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
‘It ain’t over till it's over.’ Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets
Page, L. (2011) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2010.498578 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Team performance and race: evidence from the English and French national soccer teams
Bachan, R., Reilly, B., & Witt, R. (2014) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2013.875108 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Efficiency of the odds on English professional football matches
Forrest, D., & Simmons, R. (2005) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511493614.016 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Sung, H., & Pyun, H. (2023) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/15270025231160760 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga
von Hanau, T., Wicker, P. V., & Soebbing, B. P. (2014) · Soccer and Society · doi:10.1080/14660970.2014.882823 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
To bet or not to bet: a reality check for tennis betting market efficiency
Lyócsa, Š., & Výrost, T. (2017) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2017.1394973 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Outcome uncertainty, reference-dependent preferences and live game attendance.Preprint
Coates, D., Humphreys, B. R., & Zhou, L. (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Are Sports Betting Markets Semistrong Efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 PandemicPreprint
Meier, P. F., Flepp, R., & Franck, E. P. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3676515 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Betting market efficiency and prediction in binary choice models
Koning, R. H., & Zijm, R. (2022) · Annals of Operations Research · doi:10.1007/s10479-022-04722-3 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
IS THE SOCCER BETTING MARKET EFFICIENT? A CROSS-COUNTRY INVESTIGATION USING THE FIBONACCI STRATEGY
Demir, E., Danış, H., & Rigoni, U. (2013) · The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics · doi:10.5750/jgbe.v6i2.580 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Uncertainty of Outcome, Match Quality and Television Viewership of NPC Rugby MatchesPreprint
Yang, Q. G., & Kumareswaran, D. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1413683 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Optimal Mark-Up and Arbitrages in the Betting Market
Montone, M. (2012) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.007 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
The Efficiency of Sport Betting Markets: An Analysis Using Arbitrage Trading within Super Rugby
Buckle, M., & Huang, C. (2018) · International Journal of Sport Finance · doi:10.1177/155862351801300305 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
On the importance of the probabilistic model in identifying the most decisive games in a tournament
Corona, F., Tena, J. D. D., & Wiper, M. P. (2017) · Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports · doi:10.1515/jqas-2016-0013 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Red Cards: Not Such Bad News For Penalized Guest TeamsPreprint
Mechtel, M., Brändle, T., Bäker, A., & Vetter, K. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1571867 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Against All Odds? - National Sentiment and Wagering On European FootballPreprint
Braun, S. T., & Kvasnicka, M. (2008) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1132766 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is riggedPreprint
Kaunitz, L., Zhong, S., & Kreiner, J. (2017) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1710.02824 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Beating thy Neighbor: Derby Effects in German Professional Soccer
Bäker, A., Mechtel, M., & Vetter, K. (2012) · Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik · doi:10.1515/jbnst-2012-0304 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds
Fischer, K., & Haucap, J. (2022) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/kykl.12291 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Optimal Setting of Point Spreads
Sandford, J. A., & Shea, P. (2012) · Economica · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0335.2012.00939.x · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Hidden Power of Trading Activity: The FLB in Tennis Betting Exchanges
Abínzano, I., Muga, L., & Aquilué, R. S. (2017) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002517731875 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Modeling Fixed Odds Betting For Future Event Prediction1
Chen, W., Li, X., & Zeng, D. D. (2017) · MIS Quarterly · doi:10.25300/misq/2017/41.2.14 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Hassan, A. R., & Londoño, M. G. (2017) · International Journal of Sport Finance · doi:10.1177/155862351701200405 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting
Dmochowski, J. P. (2023) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0287601 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Soebbing, B. P., Wicker, P. V., Weimar, D., & Orlowski, J. (2020) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002520975827 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Simple is beautiful: Toward light prediction markets
Chen, W., Li, X., & Zeng, D. D. (2015) · IEEE Intelligent Systems · doi:10.1109/mis.2015.54 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Missed a live match? Determinants of League of Legends Champions Korea highlights viewership
Ryu, Y., Hwang, H., Jeong, J.-H., Jang, W., Lee, G., & Pyun, H. (2023) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1213600 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Dobson, S., & Goddard, J. A. (2007) · Chapman & Hall/CRC eBooks · doi:10.1201/9781584888697.ch6 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Inter-Market Arbitrage in BettingPreprint
Franck, E. P., Verbeek, E., & Nüesch, S. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1503375 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
- Authors
- Kuypers, T.
- Corresponding author
- Kuypers, Tim
- Venue
- Applied Economics
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2000-09
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1353-1363
- ISSN
- 0003-6846 (ISSN-L)
- 1466-4283
- OpenAlex
- W2022909726
- Cited by
- 172
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 1.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Applied Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Keywords
- fixed-odds betting, market efficiency, football betting, publicly available information, arbitrage opportunities, English football
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
