Burden of climate change on malaria mortality
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In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8 °C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4 °C and 26.3 °C in Africa and Asia, respectively - the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century.
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Generalising the net effect of climate change, intensified malaria transmission across sub-Saharan Africa could increase the malaria related under-5 mortality by 10-15% if no measures are taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change.
“Generalising the net effect of climate change, intensified malaria transmission across sub-Saharan Africa could increase the malaria related under-5 mortality by 10-15% if no measures are taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change.57”
From Climate change and child health: A scoping review and an expanded conceptual framework (2021) · cites this paper as [57]
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Athar, H., Shoaib, M., & Latif, M. (2025) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-025-05666-2 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Transformative Adaptations for Health Impacts of Climate Change in Burkina Faso and Kenya
Yeboah, E., Bunker, A., Dambach, P., Mank, I., Sorgho, R., Sié, A., Munga, S., Bärnighausen, T., & Danquah, I. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-42091-8_119-1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
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Annan, H. G., Baran, I., & Litwin, S. P. (2024) · PEDIATRICS · doi:10.1542/peds.2024-066064 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Standardi, G., & Dasgupta, S. (2020) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
Biology, Epidemiology, and Public Health Significance of Malaria Disease Linked to Climate Changes
Hidan, M. A. E., Kahime, K., Aimrane, A., Abbaoui, A., Echchakery, M., Draoui, A., Chatoui, H., Ait-El-Mokhtar, M., Tazart, Z., Kebbou, A., et al. (2021) · IGI Global eBooks · doi:10.4018/978-1-6684-3686-8.ch089
Chen, Y.-N., Tseng, C., & Hsieh, M.-L. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1677149/v1
Assessing Progress in Reducing the Number of Disaster-affected People: Insights from ZimbabwePreprint
Mavhura, E., & Aryal, K. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1664904/v1
Phuti, M. S., Rudgard, W. E., Toska, E., Cluver, L. D., & Trisos, C. H. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5391639
Yanogo, G. T., Aka, L. B. N., Yanogo, P. K., & Meda, N. (2026) · Science Journal of Public Health · doi:10.11648/j.sjph.20261401.13
Zhu, H., Zhang, L., Khan, E. M., Srivastava, J., Croal, M., Candrinho, B. N., da Silva, M., & Searle, K. M. (2026) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-026-05959-0
Limaheluw, J., Niese, R., Schram-Bijkerk, D., Hall, L. F., de Kraker, J., Oostdijk, S. C. J., Serafim, F., & Husman, A. M. D. R. (2026) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2025-108532
- Authors
- Dasgupta, S.
- Affiliations
- Ca' Foscari University of Venice (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Dasgupta, Shouro
- ORCID
- Dasgupta, Shouro
- Venue
- International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2018-06
- Volume
- 221
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 782-791
- ISSN
- 1438-4639 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2800165713
- Cited by
- 46
- References
- 62
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 1.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- Locations
- International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ARCA (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Keywords
- malaria mortality, climate change, temperature, precipitation, child mortality, climate sensitivity, Africa, Asia, global burden of disease
- MeSH terms
- Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Malaria, Male, Climate Change
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