Cited by 46Climate Change and Health ImpactsMalaria Research and ControlMosquito-borne diseases and control

Burden of climate change on malaria mortality

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Dasgupta, Shouro·2018·International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health

Abstract

In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8 °C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4 °C and 26.3 °C in Africa and Asia, respectively - the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century.

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Crossref · 10.1016/j.ijheh.2018.04.003

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  • Generalising the net effect of climate change, intensified malaria transmission across sub-Saharan Africa could increase the malaria related under-5 mortality by 10-15% if no measures are taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change.

    “Generalising the net effect of climate change, intensified malaria transmission across sub-Saharan Africa could increase the malaria related under-5 mortality by 10-15% if no measures are taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change.57”

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Authors
Dasgupta, S.
Affiliations
Ca' Foscari University of Venice (IT)
Corresponding author
Dasgupta, Shouro
Venue
International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2018-06
Volume
221
Issue
5
Pages
782-791
ISSN
1438-4639 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2800165713
Cited by
46
References
62
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 2
FWCI
1.73
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • ARCA (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
Keywords
malaria mortality, climate change, temperature, precipitation, child mortality, climate sensitivity, Africa, Asia, global burden of disease
MeSH terms
Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Malaria, Male, Climate Change

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