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Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Open accessAbstract
Abstract Backgrounds An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city of China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. Methods Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate ( γ ), we estimated R 0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. Findings The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R 0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R 0 . Conclusion The mean estimate of R 0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.
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Donnelly, C. A., Ghani, A. C., Leung, G. M., Hedley, A. J., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Ho, L.-M., Thach, T.-Q., Chau, P., et al. (2003) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13410-1 · Cited by 940
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The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
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Metadata
- Authors
- Zhao, S., Lin, Q., Ran, J., Musa, S. S., Yang, G., Wang, W., Lou, Y., Gao, D., Yang, L., He, D., & Wang, M. H.
- Venue
- International Journal of Infectious Diseases
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-03
- Volume
- 92
- Pages
- 214-217
- ISSN
- 1201-9712 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3004397688
- Cited by
- 1,853
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 68.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- The paper
- Zhao, S., Lin, Q., Ran, J., Musa, S. S., Yang, G., Wang, W., Lou, Y., Gao, D., Yang, L., He, D., & Wang, M. H. (2020). Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050
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