Are chartists artists? the determinants and profitability of recommendations based on technical analysis
Open accessThe claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(93)90023-5 · Cited by 25,754 · see citing works
On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance
Carhart, M. M. (1997) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x · Cited by 17,283 · see citing works
Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work
Fama, E. F. (1970) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.2307/2325486 · Cited by 13,635 · see citing works
Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency
JEGADEESH, N., & TITMAN, S. (1993) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.x · Cited by 11,584 · see citing works
The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices
Fama, E. F. (1965) · The Journal of Business · doi:10.1086/294743 · Cited by 8,803 · see citing works
Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1988) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/1.1.41 · Cited by 3,747 · see citing works
On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance
Carhart, M. M. (1997) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.2307/2329556 · Cited by 3,063 · see citing works
Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns
BROCK, W., LAKONISHOK, J., & LeBARON, B. (1992) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04681.x · Cited by 2,301 · see citing works
Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?
WOMACK, K. L. (1996) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb05205.x · Cited by 1,931 · see citing works
Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide
STUDENMUND, A. H. (1987) · Cited by 1,409 · see citing works
Lo, A. W., Mamaysky, H., & Wang, J. (2000) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00265 · Cited by 1,131 · see citing works
The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market
Taylor, M., & Allen, H. (1992) · Journal of International Money and Finance · doi:10.1016/0261-5606(92)90048-3 · Cited by 1,071 · see citing works
Data-snooping, technical trading rule performance and the Bootstrap
Sullivan, R., Timmermann, A., & White, H. (1999) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00163 · Cited by 1,028 · cited 2× · see citing works
“Asan example, Sullivan et al. (1999) considered in total 7846 different trading rules.”
Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?
Cowles, A. (1933) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1907042 · Cited by 739 · see citing works
Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1987) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w2168 · Cited by 735 · see citing works
WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE PROFITABILITY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS?
Park, C., & Irwin, S. H. (2007) · Journal of Economic Surveys · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00519.x · Cited by 606 · see citing works
Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?
Womack, K. L. (1996) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.2307/2329305 · Cited by 471 · see citing works
Technical Analysis in Financial MarketsPreprint
Griffioen, G. A. W. (2004) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.566882 · Cited by 376 · see citing works
The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence
Menkhoff, L. (2010) · Journal of Banking & Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.04.014 · Cited by 304 · see citing works
Lo, A. W., Mamaysky, H., & Wang, J. (2000) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w7613 · Cited by 262 · see citing works
How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market
Wong, W.-K., Manzur, M., & Chew, B.-K. (2003) · Applied Financial Economics · doi:10.1080/0960310022000020906 · Cited by 236 · see citing works
The Long‐Lasting Momentum in Weekly Returns
Gutierrez, R. C., & Kelley, E. K. (2008) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01320.x · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Technical analysis and the London stock exchange: Testing the MACD and RSI rules using the FT30
Chong, T. T.-L., & Ng, W.-K. (2008) · Applied Economics Letters · doi:10.1080/13504850600993598 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
Trading frequency and event study test specification
Cowan, A. R., & Sergeant, A. M. A. (1996) · Journal of Banking & Finance · doi:10.1016/s0378-4266(96)00021-0 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Stock Exchange Listings, Firm Value, and Security Market Efficiency: The Impact of NASDAQ
Sanger, G. C., & McConnell, J. J. (1986) · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis · doi:10.2307/2330987 · Cited by 180 · see citing works
The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Reconsidered
Brown, S. J., Goetzmann, W. N., & Kumar, A. (1998) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00054 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Cesari, R., & Cremonini, D. (2003) · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control · doi:10.1016/s0165-1889(02)00052-0 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Technical trading strategies and return predictability: NYSE
Kwon, K.-Y., & Kish, R. J. (2002) · Applied Financial Economics · doi:10.1080/09603100010016139 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?
Schulmeister, S. (2008) · Review of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.rfe.2008.10.001 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
The value of stock analysts' recommendations: Evidence from emerging markets
Moshirian, F., Ng, D., & Wu, E. (2008) · International Review of Financial Analysis · doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2008.11.001 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
When do stop-loss rules stop losses?
Kaminski, K. M., & Lo, A. W. (2013) · Journal of Financial Markets · doi:10.1016/j.finmar.2013.07.001 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Investment information content in Bollinger Bands?
Lento, C., Gradojevic, N., & Wright, C. S. (2007) · Applied Financial Economics Letters · doi:10.1080/17446540701206576 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Chasing trends: recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks
Fong, W. M., & Yong, L. H. M. (2004) · Journal of Empirical Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2003.07.002 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Security analysis and portfolio management
Carter, R. B., & Auken, H. E. V. (1990) · The Journal of Portfolio Management · doi:10.3905/jpm.1990.409271 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
An empirical comparison of moving average envelopes and Bollinger Bands
Leung, J. M.-J., & Chong, T. T. (2003) · Applied Economics Letters · doi:10.1080/1350485022000041032 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules
Metghalchi, M., Chang, Y.-H., & Marcucci, J. (2007) · International Review of Financial Analysis · doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2007.05.001 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap
Sullivan, R. J., Timmermann, A., & White, H. (1997) · London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Behavioral Portfolio Analysis of Individual InvestorsPreprint
Hoffmann, A. O. I., Shefrin, H., & Pennings, J. M. E. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1629786 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Tian, G. G., Wan, G. H., & Guo, M. (2002) · Asia-Pacific Financial Markets · doi:10.1023/a:1024181515265 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
The New Science of Technical Analysis
DeMark, T. R. (1994) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 44 · see citing works
The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-ConsideredPreprint
Brown, S. J., Kumar, A., & Goetzmann, W. N. (1998) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.58690 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Marshall, B. R., & Cahan, R. H. (2005) · Research in International Business and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2005.05.001 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday DataPreprint
Schulmeister, S. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1714980 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Marshall, B. R., Sun, Q., & Young, M. R. (2007) · Applied Financial Economics · doi:10.1080/09603100802446591 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
When Do Stop-Loss Rules Stop Losses?Preprint
Kaminski, K. M., & Lo, A. W. (2007) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.968338 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
The source and consequences of stop orders: A conjecture
Tschoegl, A. E. (1988) · Managerial and Decision Economics · doi:10.1002/mde.4090090111 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Marshall, B. R., Sun, Q., & Young, M. R. (2007) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.929954 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Tian, G. G., Wan, G., & Guo, M. (2014) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2496167 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Singapore share recommendations using technical analysis
Dawson, S. M. (1985) · Asia Pacific Journal of Management · doi:10.1007/bf01734395 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The impact of analyst recommendations and revisions on the prices of JSE-listed companies
Gerritsen, D. F., & Lötter, R. (2014) · Investment Analysts Journal · doi:10.1080/10293523.2014.11082575 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationGerritsen, D. F. (2014) · Maandblad Voor Accountancy en Bedrijfseconomie · doi:10.5117/mab.88.31192 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- [1]1. Belsley, D. A., Kuh, E., & Welsch, R. E. (1980). Regression diagnostics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The profitability of technical trading rules in the Bitcoin market
Gerritsen, D. F., Bouri, E., Ramezanifar, E., & Roubaud, D. (2020) · Finance Research Letters · doi:10.1016/j.frl.2019.08.011 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Self-citationExamination of the profitability of technical analysis based on moving average strategies in BRICS
de Souza, M. J. S., Ramos, D. G. F., Pena, M. G., Sobreiro, V. A., & Kimura, H. (2018) · Financial Innovation · doi:10.1186/s40854-018-0087-z · Cited by 79 · see citing works
A CREDIBILISTIC MEAN-SEMIVARIANCE-PER PORTFOLIO SELECTION MODEL FOR LATIN AMERICA
García, F., González-Bueno, J., Oliver, J., & Tamošiūnienė, R. (2019) · Journal of Business Economics and Management · doi:10.3846/jbem.2019.8317 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Crude oil futures trading and uncertainty
Czudaj, R. (2019) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2019.01.002 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Influencers and Consumer Financial Decision‐Making
Gerritsen, D. F., & de Regt, A. (2025) · International Journal of Consumer Studies · doi:10.1111/ijcs.70037 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationEffectiveness of the Relative Strength Index Signals in Timing the Cryptocurrency Market
Zatwarnicki, M., Zatwarnicki, K., & Stolarski, P. (2023) · Sensors · doi:10.3390/s23031664 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“Despite many studies confirming the effectiveness of the strategies based on technical analysis, its moderate criticism may be accurate as it does not consider only one of the many factors driving the market [10].”
BackgroundA technical approach to equity investing in emerging markets
Metghalchi, M., Hayes, L. A., & Niroomand, F. (2018) · Review of Financial Economics · doi:10.1002/rfe.1041 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Chaos, overfitting and equilibrium: To what extent can machine learning beat the financial market?
Peng, Y., & Souza, J. G. D. M. (2024) · International Review of Financial Analysis · doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103474 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Return Predictability and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Bulgarian Stock Market
Metghalchi, M., Hajilee, M., & Hayes, L. A. (2018) · Eastern European Economics · doi:10.1080/00128775.2018.1542601 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Trading rules and excess returns: evidence from Turkey
Metghalchi, M., Durmaz, N., Cloninger, P. A., & Farahbod, K. (2021) · International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management · doi:10.1108/imefm-01-2020-0043 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
The role of uncertainty on agricultural futures markets momentum trading and volatility
Czudaj, R. (2019) · Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics · doi:10.1515/snde-2018-0054 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Nor, S. M., Zawawi, N. H. M., Wickremasinghe, G. B., & Halim, Z. A. (2023) · Axioms · doi:10.3390/axioms12020127 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Leading research trends on trading strategies
Oliver, J., & García, F. (2020) · Finance Markets and Valuation · doi:10.46503/lhtp1113 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Ghanem, S., Harasheh, M., Sbaih, Q., & Ajmal, T. (2024) · Cogent Business & Management · doi:10.1080/23311975.2024.2428781 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Serkan, U. N. A. L. (2022) · Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi · doi:10.17153/oguiibf.991524 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Day, M.-Y., & Ni, Y. (2023) · International Review of Financial Analysis · doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102856 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Evaluating the predictive power of intraday technical trading in China's crude oil market
Jin, X. (2022) · Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1002/for.2873 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
A spectral relevance analysis approach to pattern recognition of financial time series
Distler, C., Okhrin, Y., & Pfahler, J. (2025) · Expert Systems with Applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2025.129555 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Metric-based technical indicators for yield forecasting
Choi, I., Lim, S., Kim, S., Choi, Y., Han, S., & Kim, W. C. (2026) · Pacific-Basin Finance Journal · doi:10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103169 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Return Predictability and Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Iceland
Metghalchi, M., Hajilee, M., & Hayes, L. A. (2018) · The Journal of Alternative Investments · doi:10.3905/jai.2018.21.1.068 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Performance of intraday technical trading in China’s gold market
Jin, X. (2021) · Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money · doi:10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101481 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Intraday Bitcoin price shocks: when bad news is good news
Quirós, J. L. M., & Quirós, M. D. M. M. (2022) · Journal of Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/15140326.2022.2151253 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
PROFITABILITY OF TECHNICAL TRADING RULES IN THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET
Quirós, J. L. M., Quirós, M. D. M. M., & Gonçalves, L. M. V. (2018) · Revista Evidenciação Contábil & Finanças · doi:10.18405/recfin20180208 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Ceballos, L. E. F., Gómez, L. M. J., Gonzales, C. D. C. P., & Torres, G. A. A. (2017) · Revista En-contexto · doi:10.53995/23463279.451
Equity Analysis in Buying Company Shares on the Philippine Stock Exchange
Medina, P. T., Castaño, M. C. N., & Tiu, T. S. (2018) · GATR Journal of Finance and Banking Review · doi:10.35609/jfbr.2018.3.4(4
En-contexto, R. (2017) · Revista En-contexto · doi:10.53995/23463279.691
Ming, K. L. Y., Jais, M., & Ling, P.-S. (2022) · International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting Finance and Management Sciences · doi:10.6007/ijarafms/v12-i3/15371
When Bollinger Meets Edgeworth: An Application to the Contrarian Trading StrategyPreprint
Bedoya, D. A. L., Camacho, B. L., Mora‐Valencia, A., & Perote, J. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4634850
Krishna R. Kedia, T. D. (2024) · Journal of Informatics Education and Research · doi:10.52783/jier.v4i2.768
dos Santos, C. R., Rzezak, L., Rocha, P. A. B., Junior, R. D. J. O., Chehuan, S. F., & Futenma, T. T. (2024) · Revista Contemporânea · doi:10.56083/rcv4n6-082
Hassan, A. F. S., Yong, T. J., & Yahya, M. H. D. H. (2025) · International Journal of Economics and Management · doi:10.47836/ijeam.19.3.08
- Authors
- Gerritsen, D. F.
- Affiliations
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Gerritsen, Dirk F.
- ORCID
- Gerritsen, Dirk F.
- Venue
- International Review of Financial Analysis
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2016-10
- Volume
- 47
- Pages
- 179-196
- ISSN
- 1057-5219 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2464393272
- Cited by
- 32
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 2
- FWCI
- 6.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- International Review of Financial Analysis (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Stock Market Forecasting Methods
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Financial Analysis and Corporate Governance
- Keywords
- technical analysis, chartists, investment advice, abnormal returns, technical trading rules, price trends, stock returns, market index returns, Dutch stock market
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
