A critical view on the current application of LCA for new technologies and recommendations for improved practice
Open accessAbstract
LCA is a well-known assessment tool that identifies and provides insights on the environmental impacts of products and services over their lifecycle. The guidance provided by the existing manuals typically applies to modelling and assessing environmental impacts ex-post, meaning that information is available from empirical experience after products have been commercially in use for extended periods of time. This information is not available if LCA is applied in an ex-ante manner before a technology is commercially deployed at scale. We identify the major challenges of applying LCA in an ex-ante manner and propose a route forward in dealing with these challenges that combines intuitions from other disciplinary fields. The first challenge is how to model consistent future foreground systems for the incumbent and new technology systems. Learning curves and scenario approaches are the way forward. The second challenge is how to model future background systems. Here a solution is to transform existing LCI databases towards future contexts, informed by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that provide scenarios in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Finally, uncertainty in ex-ante LCA is of a different nature as in ex-post LCAs. The main difference with conventional LCA studies is the highly uncertain information for the future. To acknowledge this. considerate attention should be attributed to the discussion on these uncertainties, both in the design of the assessment and the data used. Responsive evaluation can play a supportive role here. This will increase the transparency and efficacy of the results because the relevant stakeholders and experts are involved. In this way technology designers and other stakeholders derive insights on the influence of design choices or contextual factors (that are important, but hard to influence) on the potential environmental impacts of their foreseen technology.
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Prospective assessments require the use of expert knowledge, projected estimations and databases.
“The use of prospective assessments require the use of expert knowledge, projected estimations and databases [10 -12].”
From Assessing the future prospects of emerging technologies for shipping and aviation biofuels: A critical review (2024) · cites this paper as [11]
The ex-ante framework lacks foresight in assessing the potential and adequacy of the process/product being developed in a future scenario.
“However, one of the main weaknesses of using this framework is the lack of foresight in assessing the potential and adequacy of the process/product being developed in a future scenario [11,122,123].”
From Assessing the future prospects of emerging technologies for shipping and aviation biofuels: A critical review (2024) · cites this paper as [11]
Unexpected events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, may delay the trend in a context of low technological development and economic crisis, hindering the penetration of emerging technology in the market.
“The occurrence of unexpected events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, may definitely delay the trend in a context of low technological development and economic crisis, hindering the pene tration of emerging technology in the market [11,119].”
From Assessing the future prospects of emerging technologies for shipping and aviation biofuels: A critical review (2024) · cites this paper as [11]
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- Authors
- van der Giesen, C., Cucurachi, S., Guinée, J., Kramer, G. J., & Tukker, A.
- Affiliations
- Leiden University (NL)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Venue
- Journal of Cleaner Production
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-06
- Volume
- 259
- Pages
- 120904
- ISSN
- 0959-6526 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3009746590
- Cited by
- 386
- References
- 75
- Citations by year
- 2026: 58 · 2025: 94 · 2024: 81 · 2023: 62 · 2022: 45 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 11
- FWCI
- 13.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Cleaner Production (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Chemistry › Chemistry and Chemical Engineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- new technologies, learning curve, scenario analysis, integrated assessment models, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, uncertainty, responsive evaluation
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