When the background matters: using scenarios from integrated assessment models in prospective life cycle assessment
Open accessAbstract
Summary Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) needs to deal with the large epistemological uncertainty about the future to support more robust future environmental impact assessments of technologies. This study proposes a novel approach that systematically changes the background processes in a prospective LCA based on scenarios of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the IMAGE model. Consistent worldwide scenarios from IMAGE are evaluated in the life cycle inventory using ecoinvent v3.3. To test the approach, only the electricity sector was changed in a prospective LCA of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and an electric vehicle (EV) using six baseline and mitigation climate scenarios until 2050. This case study shows that changes in the electricity background can be very important for the environmental impacts of EV. Also, the approach demonstrates that the relative environmental performance of EV and ICEV over time is more complex and multifaceted than previously assumed. Uncertainty due to future developments manifests in different impacts depending on the product (EV or ICEV), the impact category, and the scenario and year considered. More robust prospective LCAs can be achieved, particularly for emerging technologies, by expanding this approach to other economic sectors beyond electricity background changes and mobility applications as well as by including uncertainty and changes in foreground parameters. A more systematic and structured composition of future inventory databases driven by IAM scenarios helps to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies.
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- Authors
- Mendoza Beltran, A., Cox, B., Mutel, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Font Vivanco, D., Deetman, S., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Guinée, J., & Tukker, A.
- Affiliations
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Department of Industrial Ecology Leiden University The Netherlands
- Paul Scherrer Institute (CH)
- Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) Aargau Switzerland
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) Den Haag The Netherlands
- UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources University College London London UK
- Leiden University (NL)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Industrial Ecology
- Published
- 2018-11-21
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 64-79
- ISSN
- 1088-1980 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9290
- OpenAlex
- W2901229363
- Cited by
- 301
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2026: 53 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 58 · 2023: 41 · 2022: 45 · 2021: 31 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 6.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2019-04-17)
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Industrial Ecology (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- DORA PSI (Paul Scherrer Institute) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Virtual Community of Pathological Anatomy (University of Castilla La Mancha) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (H2020‐MSCA‐IF‐2015, 702869)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- prospective life cycle assessment, integrated assessment models, image models, electric vehicles, internal combustion engine vehicles, epistemic uncertainty, climate change mitigation scenarios, life cycle inventory databases, emerging technologies
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