Quantifying and reducing model-form uncertainties in Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations: A data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian approach

Abstract

Despite their well-known limitations, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models are still the workhorse tools for turbulent flow simulations in today's engineering application. For many practical flows, the turbulence models are by far the largest source of uncertainty. In this work we develop an open-box, physics-informed Bayesian framework for quantifying model-form uncertainties in RANS simulations. Uncertainties are introduced directly to the Reynolds stresses and are represented with compact parameterization accounting for empirical prior knowledge and physical constraints (e.g., realizability, smoothness, and symmetry). An iterative ensemble Kalman method is used to assimilate the prior knowledge and observation data in a Bayesian framework, and to propagate them to posterior distributions of velocities and other Quantities of Interest (QoIs). We use two representative cases, the flow over periodic hills and the flow in a square duct, to evaluate the performance of the proposed framework. Simulation results suggest that, even with very sparse observations, the posterior mean velocities and other QoIs have significantly better agreement with the benchmark data compared to the baseline results. At most locations the posterior distribution adequately captures the true model error within the developed model form uncertainty bounds. The framework is a major improvement over existing black-box, physics-neutral methods for model-form uncertainty quantification, and has potential implications in many fields in which the model uncertainty comes from unresolved physical processes. A notable example is climate modeling, where high-consequence decisions are made based on predictions (e.g., projected temperature rise) with major uncertainties originating from closure models that are used to account for unresolved or unknown physics including radiation, cloud, and boundary layer processes.