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Cited by 65Cutaneous Melanoma Detection and ManagementGlobal Cancer Incidence and Screeningmelanin and skin pigmentation

An Epidemiologic Analysis of Melanoma Overdiagnosis in the United States, 1975–2017

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Kurtansky, Nicholas R., Dusza, Stephen W., Halpern, Allan C., Hartman, Rebecca I., Geller, Alan C., Marghoob, Ashfaq A., Rotemberg, Veronica M., Marchetti, Michael A.·2022·Journal of Investigative Dermatology
DOI 10.1016/j.jid.2021.12.003PMC PMC9187775
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Abstract

The primary cause of the increase in melanoma incidence in the United States has been suggested to be overdiagnosis. We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result Program data from 1975 to 2017 to examine epidemiologic trends of melanoma incidence and mortality and better characterize overdiagnosis in white Americans. Over the 43-year period, incidence and mortality showed discordant temporal changes across population subgroups; trends most suggestive of overdiagnosis alone were present in females aged 55-74. Other groups showed mixed changes suggestive of overdiagnosis plus changes in underlying disease risk (decreasing risk in younger individuals and increasing risk in older males). Cohort effects were identified for male and female mortality and male incidence but were not as apparent for female incidence, suggesting that period effects have had a greater influence on changes in incidence over time in females. Encouraging trends included long-term declines in mortality in younger individuals and recent stabilization of invasive incidence in individuals aged 15-44 years and males aged 45-54 years. Melanoma in situ incidence, however, has continued to increase throughout the population. Overdiagnosis appears to be relatively greater in American females and for melanoma in situ.

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  • Several studies have demonstrated that the incidence of both melanoma and keratinocyte cancer has decreased in younger people and in more recent birth cohorts in some high-risk populations.

    “Several studies have demonstrated that the incidence of both melanoma [245–247] and keratinocyte cancer [248] has decreased in younger people and in more recent birth cohorts in some high-risk populations.”

    From Environmental consequences of interacting effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and climate: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2024 (2025) · cites this paper as [246]

    The Results (Birth Cohort Effects on Incidence and Mortality; page unavailable) report lower melanoma diagnosis risk for females born from 1990 onward than for those born in 1950. The Results (Discordant Age-Sex Trends; page unavailable) report declining incidence of thicker melanomas in males aged 15–44, but overall invasive incidence plateaued in younger age groups rather than decreased, and incidence rose in young females. The keratinocyte-cancer claim is assigned to a different citation and is not assessed here. (LLM, conf=0.86)

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Authors
Kurtansky, N. R., Dusza, S. W., Halpern, A. C., Hartman, R. I., Geller, A. C., Marghoob, A. A., Rotemberg, V. M., & Marchetti, M. A.
Affiliations
  • Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (US)
  • Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
  • Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author
Marchetti, Michael A.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Investigative Dermatology
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2022-07
Volume
142
Issue
7
Pages
1804-1811.e6
ISSN
0022-202X (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.jid.2021.12.003
PMC
PMC9187775
OpenAlex
W4200610146
Cited by
65
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 9
FWCI
4.04
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Investigative Dermatology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
Funders
  • Melanoma Research Foundation
  • Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
  • National Cancer Institute (P30 CA008748)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cutaneous Melanoma Detection and Management
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Cell Biology › melanin and skin pigmentation
Keywords
melanoma, overdiagnosis, melanoma incidence, melanoma mortality, temporal trends, cohort effects, period effects, melanoma in situ, sex differences, age differences, White Americans, SEER
MeSH terms
Overdiagnosis, Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma, Aged, Female, Humans, Male, Melanoma, Skin Neoplasms, United States, Incidence

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