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The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation
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Summary We investigate the role of firm low-carbon resources in decarbonizing power generation in combination with variable renewable resources, battery energy storage, demand flexibility, and long-distance transmission. We evaluate nearly 1,000 cases covering varying CO2 limits, technological uncertainties, and geographic differences in demand and renewable resource potential. Availability of firm low-carbon technologies, including nuclear, natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration, and bioenergy, reduces electricity costs by 10%–62% across fully decarbonized cases. Below 50 gCO2/kWh, these resources lower costs in the vast majority of cases. Additionally, as emissions limits decrease, installed capacity of several resources changes non-monotonically. This underscores the need to evaluate near-term policy and investment decisions based on contributions to long-term decarbonization rather than interim goals. Installed capacity for all resources is also strongly affected by uncertain technology parameters. This emphasizes the importance of a broad research portfolio and flexible policy support that expands rather than constrains future options.
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“Although future marginal abatement costs are intrinsically uncertain25, there is evidence that the marginal abatement cost curve may be (highly) convex34.”
From COVID-19, Green Deal and recovery plan permanently change emissions and prices in EU ETS Phase IV (2022) · cites this paper as [34]
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“Moreover, fl exible consumer loads (e.g., EVs and water heaters) were cost competitive with batteries in providing peak ‐ load reduction, with 74 – 116 GW across scenarios (Sepulveda et al., 2018).”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Sepulveda, N. A., Jenkins, J. D., de Sisternes, F. J., & Lester, R. K.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Sepulveda, Nestor A.
- Lester, Richard K.
- Venue
- Joule
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2018-11
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 2403-2420
- ISSN
- 2542-4351 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2889797253
- Semantic Scholar
- 574594c8bdce53a5c5b1a4ed513e8e1c5ba484d6
- Cited by
- 592
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 95 · 2025: 89 · 2024: 74 · 2023: 85 · 2022: 96 · 2021: 85 · 2020: 45 · 2019: 19 · 2018: 4
- FWCI
- 14.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Joule (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Chilean Navy
- MIT
- Martin Family Society of Fellows
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Power System Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Renewable energy and sustainable power systems
- Keywords
- variable renewable energy, battery energy storage, demand-side flexibility, long-distance transmission, nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage, bioenergy, electricity cost, technological uncertainty, installed capacity, energy policy
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