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Cited by 73Smoking Behavior and CessationGlobal Public Health Policies and EpidemiologyEconomic and Fiscal Studies

Raising taxes to reduce smoking prevalence in the US: A simulation of the anticipated health and economic impacts

Open access
Ahmad, Sajjad, Franz, Gregor A.·2008·Public Health
DOI 10.1016/j.puhe.2007.02.020PMC PMC2246022
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Abstract

Objective To estimate health and economic outcomes of raising the excise taxes on cigarettes.Methods We use a dynamic computer simulation model to estimate health and economic impacts of raising taxes on cigarettes (up to 100% price increase) for the entire population of the USA over 20 years. We also perform sensitivity analysis on price elasticity.Results A 40% tax-induced cigarette price increase would reduce smoking prevalence from 21% in 2004 to 15.2% in 2025 with large gains in cumulative life years (7 million) and quality adjusted life years (13 million) over 20 years. Total tax revenue will increase by $365 billion in that span, and total smoking-related medical costs would drop by $317 billion, resulting in total savings of $682 billion. These benefits increase greatly with larger tax increases, and tax revenues continue to rise even as smoking prevalence falls.Conclusions Increasing taxes on cigarettes is a unique policy intervention that reduces smoking prevalence, generates additional tax revenue, and results in significant savings in medical care costs.

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  • In the United States, modeling techniques have estimated that a 40% increase in cigarette prices due to taxes would reduce smoking prevalence from 21% in 2004 to 15.2% in 2025, producing large gains in cumulative life-years (7 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (13 million) and a total cost savings of $682 billion.

    “In the United States, modeling techniques have estimated that a 40% increase in cigarette prices due to taxes would reduce smoking prevalence from 21% in 2004 to 15.2% in 2025, producing large gains in cumulative life-years (7 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (13 million) and a total cost savings of $682 billion.211”

    From Population Approaches to Improve Diet, Physical Activity, and Smoking Habits: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association (2012) · cites this paper as [211]

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  1. [24]Orzechowski W, Walker R. The Tax Burden on Tobacco. Volume 35, 2000. Arlington, VA: Orzechowski and Walker; 2001. [[Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The%20Tax%20Burden%20on%20Tobacco.%20Volume%2035,%202000&author=W%20Orzechowski&author=R%20Walker&publication_year=2001&)]
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  5. [32]Molimard R, Amrioui F, Martin C, Carles P. Poids des mégots et contraintes économiques (Weight of Cigarette Butts and Economic Constraints) La Presse Médicale. 1994;23:824–6. [[Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?journal=La%20Presse%20M%C3%A9dicale&title=Poids%20des%20m%C3%A9gots%20et%20contraintes%20%C3%A9conomiques%20(Weight%20of%20Cigarette%20Butts%20and%20Economic%20Constraints)&author=R%20Molimard&author=F%20Amrioui&author=C%20Martin&author=P%20Carles&volume=23&publication_year=1994&pages=824-6&)]
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Authors
Ahmad, S., & Franz, G. A.
Affiliations
  • University of Nevada, Las Vegas (US)
  • University of California, Irvine (US)
Corresponding author
Ahmad, Sajjad
ORCID
Ahmad, Sajjad
Venue
Public Health
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2008-01
Volume
122
Issue
1
Pages
3-10
ISSN
0033-3506 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.puhe.2007.02.020
PMC
PMC2246022
OpenAlex
W2120632174
Cited by
73
References
36
Citations by year
2024: 3 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 3
FWCI
1.57
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations
  • Public Health (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • Digital Scholarship - UNLV (University of Nevada Reno) (submittedVersion)
Funders
National Institute on Drug Abuse (P50DA013332, DA 13332)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Fiscal Studies
Keywords
cigarette excise tax, tobacco taxation, smoking prevalence, price elasticity, quality-adjusted life years, tax revenue, tobacco control, United States
MeSH terms
Computer Simulation, Health Expenditures, Health Services, Humans, Quality of Life, Smoking, Taxes, United States, Prevalence, Models, Econometric

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