Towards a dynamic assessment of raw materials criticality: Linking agent-based demand — With material flow supply modelling approaches
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Emerging technologies such as information and communication-, photovoltaic- or battery technologies are expected to increase significantly the demand for scarce metals in the near future. The recently developed methods to evaluate the criticality of mineral raw materials typically provide a 'snapshot' of the criticality of a certain material at one point in time by using static indicators both for supply risk and for the impacts of supply restrictions. While allowing for insights into the mechanisms behind the criticality of raw materials, these methods cannot account for dynamic changes in products and/or activities over time. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework intended to overcome these limitations by including the dynamic interactions between different possible demand and supply configurations. The framework integrates an agent-based behaviour model, where demand emerges from individual agent decisions and interaction, into a dynamic material flow model, representing the materials' stocks and flows. Within the framework, the environmental implications of substitution decisions are evaluated by applying life-cycle assessment methodology. The approach makes a first step towards a dynamic criticality assessment and will enhance the understanding of industrial substitution decisions and environmental implications related to critical metals. We discuss the potential and limitation of such an approach in contrast to state-of-the-art methods and how it might lead to criticality assessments tailored to the specific circumstances of single industrial sectors or individual companies.
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The environmental benefit of recycling of minerals depends in part on the comparative transportation distances of virgin and secondary resources.
“The environmental benefit of recycling of minerals depends in part on the comparative transportation distances of virgin and secondary resources [102, 103].”
From Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review (2019) · cites this paper as [103]
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- Authors
- Knoeri, C., Wäger, P. A., Stamp, A., Althaus, H.-J., & Weil, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Empa (CH)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Knoeri, Christof
- Venue
- Science of The Total Environment
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2013-09
- Volume
- 461-462
- Pages
- 808-812
- ISSN
- 0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2012529975
- Cited by
- 83
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 9.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.dora.lib4ri.ch
- Licence
- Locations
- The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanical Engineering › Extraction and Separation Processes
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
- Keywords
- critical raw materials, agent-based modeling, supply risk, life cycle assessment, emerging technologies, supply and demand dynamics
- MeSH terms
- Conservation of Natural Resources, Environment, Industry, Metals, Rare Earth, Models, Economic
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