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Cited by 61Climate change impacts on agricultureHydrology and Watershed Management StudiesWater resources management and optimization

Modeling future water footprint of barley production in Alberta, Canada: Implications for water use and yields to 2064

Masud, Mohammad Badrul, McAllister, Tim, Cordeiro, Marcos R.C., Faramarzi, Monireh·2018·Science of The Total Environment
DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.004
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Abstract

Despite the perception of being one of the most agriculturally productive regions globally, crop production in Alberta, a western province of Canada, is strongly dependent on highly variable climate and water resources. We developed agro-hydrological models to assess the water footprint (WF) of barley by simulating future crop yield (Y) and consumptive water use (CWU) within the agricultural region of Alberta. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop rainfed and irrigated barley Y simulation models adapted to sixty-seven and eleven counties, respectively through extensive calibration, validation, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Eighteen downscaled climate projections from nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5 for the 2040-2064 period were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model. Based on the ensemble of GCMs, rainfed barley yield is projected to increase while irrigated barley is projected to remain unchanged in Alberta. Results revealed a considerable decrease (maximum 60%) in WF to 2064 relative to the simulated baseline 1985-2009 WF. Less water will also be required to produce barley in northern Alberta (rainfed barley) than southern Alberta (irrigated barley) due to reduced water consumption. The modeled WF data adjusted for water stress conditions and found a remarkable change (increase/decrease) in the irrigated counties. Overall, the research framework and the locally adapted regional model results will facilitate the development of future water policies in support of better climate adaptation strategies by providing improved WF projections.

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  • Increasing temperature may lead to contradictory impacts on different production areas: crop yields are expected to increase in some regions such as Canada and northern Spain, whilst other regions such as France and southern Spain are likely to experience increasing agricultural losses.

    “Notably, the increasing temperature may lead to contradictory impacts on different production areas.For example, crop yields are expected to increase in some regions such as in Canada and northern Spain, where warmer winters would improve yields (Masud et al., 2018;Bento et al., 2021), whilst other regions such as France and southern Spain are likely to experience increasing agricultural losses (G”

    From Genetic resources and precise gene editing for targeted improvement of barley abiotic stress tolerance (2023) · cites this paper as Masud et al., 2018

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Authors
Masud, M. B., McAllister, T., Cordeiro, M. R. C., & Faramarzi, M.
Affiliations
  • University of Alberta (CA)
  • Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (CA)
Corresponding author
Masud, Mohammad Badrul
ORCID
Venue
Science of The Total Environment
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2018-03
Volume
616-617
Pages
208-222
ISSN
0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.004
OpenAlex
W2770410990
Cited by
61
References
55
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 3
FWCI
4.04
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
Locations
  • The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
Alberta Agriculture and Forestry (2016E017R)
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Water resources management and optimization
Keywords
water footprint, barley production, crop yield projections, consumptive water use, rainfed agriculture, irrigated agriculture, climate change impacts on agriculture, climate change adaptation, water stress, SWAT model, Alberta

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