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Cited by 90Species Distribution and Climate ChangeUrban Arborization and Environmental StudiesBotany and Plant Ecology Studies

Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change

Burley, Hugh, Beaumont, Linda J., Ossola, Alessandro, Baumgartner, John B., Gallagher, Rachael, Laffan, Shawn, Esperon-Rodriguez, Manuel, Manea, Anthony +1 more·2019·Science of The Total Environment
DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.287
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Abstract

Globally, local governments are increasing investment in urban greening projects. However, there is little consideration of whether the species being planted will be resilient to climate change. We assessed the distribution of climatically suitable habitat, now and in the future, for 176 tree species native to Australia, commonly planted across Australia's Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) and currently grown by commercial nurseries. Species' occurrence records were obtained from inventories and herbaria, globally and across Australia, and combined with baseline climate data (WorldClim, 1960-1990) and six climate scenarios for 2030 and 2070 using climatic suitability models (CSMs). CSMs for each species were calibrated and projected onto baseline and future scenarios. We calculated changes in the size of climatically suitable habitat for each species across each SUA, and identified urban areas that are likely to have suitable climate for either fewer or more of our study species under future climate. By 2070, climatically suitable habitat in SUAs is predicted to decline for 73% of species assessed. For 18% of these species, climatically suitable area is predicted to be more than halved, relative to their baseline extent. Generally, for urban areas in cooler regions, climatically suitable habitat is predicted to increase. By contrast, for urban areas in warmer regions, a greater proportion of tree species may lose climatically suitable habitat. Our results highlight changing patterns of urban climatic space for commonly planted species, suggesting that local governments and the horticultural industry should take a proactive approach to identify new climate-ready species for urban plantings.

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  • Ecological relevance of any NbS can often come down to understanding which native species and their traits are most relevant to a specific area, also as climate change may cause range shifts stressing species' ability to adapt and thrive in NbS designs.

    “Ecological relevance of any NbS can often come down to understanding which native species (and their traits) are most relevant to a specific area, also as climate change may cause range shifts (80) stressing species’ ability to adapt and thrive in NbS designs (17).”

    From Global synthesis and regional insights for mainstreaming urban nature-based solutions (2025) · cites this paper as [80]

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Authors
Burley, H., Beaumont, L. J., Ossola, A., Baumgartner, J. B., Gallagher, R., Laffan, S., Esperon-Rodriguez, M., Manea, A., & Leishman, M. R.
Affiliations
  • Macquarie University (AU)
  • UNSW Sydney (AU)
Corresponding author
Burley, Hugh
ORCID
Venue
Science of The Total Environment
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2019-10
Volume
685
Pages
451-462
ISSN
0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.287
OpenAlex
W2945619247
Cited by
90
References
71
Citations by year
2026: 7 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 9
FWCI
13.58
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
Locations
  • The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • Hort Innovation
  • Macquarie University
  • Western Sydney University
  • NSW Office of Environment and Heritage
  • Australian Government
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Urban Arborization and Environmental Studies
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Botany and Plant Ecology Studies
Keywords
urban trees, climate change impacts, climate suitability, habitat loss, native tree species, urban greening, species distribution modeling, climate change scenarios, horticultural industry, climate resilience
MeSH terms
Australia, Cities, Environmental Monitoring, Forecasting, Models, Theoretical, Trees, Ecosystem, Climate Change

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