A method for regional estimation of climate change exposure of coastal infrastructure: Case of USVI and the influence of digital elevation models on assessments
Open accessAbstract
Objective This study tests the impacts of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data on an exposure assessment methodology developed to quantify flooding of coastal infrastructure from storms and sea level rise on a regional scale. The approach is piloted on the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) for a one-hundred-year storm event in 2050 under the IPCC's 8.5 emission scenario (RCP 8,5).Method Flooding of individual infrastructure was tested against three different digital elevation models using a GIS-based coastal infrastructure database created specifically for the project using aerial images. Inundation for extreme sea levels is based on dynamic simulations using Lisflood-ACC (LFP).Results The model indicates transport and utility infrastructure in the USVI are considerably exposed to sea level rise and modeled storm impacts from climate change. Prediction of flood extent was improved with a neural network processed SRTM, versus publicly available SRTM (~30 m) seamless C-band DEM but both SRTM based models underestimate flooding compared to LIDAR DEM. The modeled scenario, although conservative, showed significant flood exposure to a large number of access roads to facilities, 113/176 transportation related buildings, and 29/66 electric utility and water treatment buildings including six electric power transformers and six waste water treatment clarifiers.Conclusion The method bridges a gap between large-scale non-specific flood assessments and single-facility detailed assessments and can be used to efficiently quantify and prioritize parcels and large structures in need of further assessment for regions that lack detailed data to assess climate exposure to sea level rise and flooding caused by waves. The method should prove particularly useful for assessment of Small Island Developing State regions that lack LIDAR data, such as the Caribbean.
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Displacement from low-lying islands and river deltas will be a widespread issue within a few decades.
“Displacement from these areas will be a widespread issue within a few decades [36–38].”
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Citizens’ Perspectives on Coastal Erosion and Inundation Along the Gulf of Guinea
Kusimi, J. M., & Akyeampong, E. K. (2025) · Advances in global change research · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-85359-3_4
Microscale coastal flood risk assessment methods amid climate change
Kaur, A., Lakra, H. S., Ali, S., Shaw, R., & Ahirwar, A. (2026) · Marine Development · doi:10.1007/s44312-026-00083-8
Nuskiya, M. H. F., & Sathyaseelan, S. (2026) · Springer climate · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-24533-5_3
Reuter, H. I., Grohmann, C. H., & Lecours, V. (2026) · Developments in psychiatry · doi:10.1016/b978-0-44-333376-7.00044-6
Geomorphometry in a time of climate change
Gesch, D. B., & Hawker, L. P. (2026) · Developments in psychiatry · doi:10.1016/b978-0-44-333376-7.00040-9
Coastal barrier response to energetic storms: A global process-based modelling overview
Fanti, V., Ferreira, Ó., Kümmerer, V., & Loureiro, C. (2026) · Geomorphology · doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2026.110538
- Authors
- Bove, G., Becker, A., Sweeney, B., Vousdoukas, M., & Kulp, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Rhode Island (US)
- European Commission (BE)
- Climate Central (US)
- Venue
- Science of The Total Environment
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-03
- Volume
- 710
- Pages
- 136162
- ISSN
- 0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2996539760
- Cited by
- 53
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 4
- FWCI
- 2.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- Locations
- The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Journal of Media Literacy Education (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Joint Research Centre (European Commission) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Cruise Ship Charitable Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Civil and Structural Engineering › Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
- Keywords
- coastal infrastructure, climate change exposure, sea level rise, storm floods, digital elevation model, SRTM, LiDAR, flood inundation modeling, infrastructure vulnerability, U.S. Virgin Islands, small island developing states, electric utility infrastructure, transport infrastructure
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