Body mass trajectories through midlife among adults with class I obesity.
Abstract
Background Little is known about the body mass trajectories for adults with class I obesity. Our objective was to map the body mass trajectories through midlife for young adults with class I obesity in the United States.Methods Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979 was used to generate a cohort of 1058 men and women, aged 25-33 years with class I obesity in 1990. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify the number and shape of the body mass index trajectories from 1990 to 2008 for this cohort.Results By 2008, about 15% of men and women with class I obesity in 1990 experienced a body mass index increase to >40 kg/m(2). The trajectory analyses showed that roughly one third of the sample were on 1 of 2 body mass index trajectory groups that culminated with an average BMI well above 35 kg/m(2).Conclusion The large majority of young adults with class I obesity are likely to gain weight over time. For many, the weight gain will be significant and greatly increase their risk of obesity-related co-morbidities and reduced life expectancy. As a result, bariatric surgery or other intensive weight management options might be warranted.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The study followed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) reporting guideline.
“This study followed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE).19”
From Factors Associated With Semaglutide Initiation Among Adults With Obesity (2025) · cites this paper as [19]
Cites
Bariatric Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Buchwald, H., Avidor, Y., Braunwald, E., Jensen, M. D., Pories, W., Fahrbach, K., & Schoelles, K. (2004) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.292.14.1724 · Cited by 6,800 · see citing works
Group-Based Trajectory Modeling in Clinical Research
Nagin, D. S., & Odgers, C. L. (2010) · Annual Review of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev.clinpsy.121208.131413 · Cited by 2,749 · see citing works
A SAS Procedure Based on Mixture Models for Estimating Developmental Trajectories
Jones, B. L., Nagin, D. S., & Roeder, K. (2001) · Sociological Methods & Research · doi:10.1177/0049124101029003005 · Cited by 2,374 · see citing works
Childhood Adiposity, Adult Adiposity, and Cardiovascular Risk Factors
Juonala, M., Magnussen, C. G., Berenson, G. S., Venn, A., Burns, T. L., Sabin, M. A., Srinivasan, S. R., Daniels, S. R., Davis, P. H., Chen, W., et al. (2011) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1010112 · Cited by 1,665 · see citing works
Dixon, J. B., O’Brien, P. E., Playfair, J., Chapman, L., Schachter, L. M., Skinner, S., Proietto, J., Bailey, M., & Anderson, M. (2008) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.299.3.316 · Cited by 1,434 · see citing works
Advances in Group-Based Trajectory Modeling and an SAS Procedure for Estimating Them
Jones, B. L., & Nagin, D. S. (2007) · Sociological Methods & Research · doi:10.1177/0049124106292364 · Cited by 1,206 · see citing works
Self-reported weight and height
Rowland, M. (1990) · The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1093/ajcn/52.6.1125 · Cited by 994 · see citing works
Nguyen, N., Magno, C. P., Lane, K., Hinojosa, M., & Lane, J. (2008) · Journal of the American College of Surgeons · doi:10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2008.08.022 · Cited by 638 · see citing works
Latent Class Growth Modelling: A Tutorial
Armstrong, H. L., Carraro, N., Thompson, A., Gaudreau, P., & Louvet, B. (2009) · Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology · doi:10.20982/tqmp.05.1.p011 · Cited by 626 · see citing works
Body Mass Definitions of Obesity
Nieto-García, F. J., Bush, T. L., & Keyl, P. M. (1990) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/00001648-199003000-00011 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Lee, W., Wang, W., Lee, Y.-C., Huang, M., Ser, K., & Chen, J. (2007) · Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery · doi:10.1007/s11605-007-0319-4 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
Broadbent, J. M., Thomson, W. M., & Poulton, R. (2008) · Journal of Dental Research · doi:10.1177/154405910808700112 · Cited by 200 · see citing works
Clegg, A. J., Colquitt, J. L., Sidhu, M., Royle, P., & Walker, A. (2003) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/sj.ijo.0802394 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Fried, M., Ribaric, G., Buchwald, J. N., Svacina, S., Dolezalova, K., & Scopinaro, N. (2010) · Obesity Surgery · doi:10.1007/s11695-010-0113-3 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass for BMI <35 kg/m2: a tailored approach
COHEN, R. V., Pinheiro, J. S., Correa, J. L., & Schiavon, C. A. (2006) · Surgery for Obesity and Related Diseases · doi:10.1016/j.soard.2006.02.011 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Østbye, T., Malhotra, R., & Landerman, L. R. (2010) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyq142 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Youth BMI Trajectories: Evidence From the NLSY97
Nonnemaker, J. M., Morgan‐López, A. A., Pais, J., & Finkelstein, E. A. (2009) · Obesity · doi:10.1038/oby.2009.5 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Italian Group for Lap-Band System®: Results of Multicenter Study on Patients with BMI ≤35 kg/m2
Angrisani, L., Favretti, F., Furbetta, F., Iuppa, A., Doldi, S. B., Paganelli, M., Basso, N., Lucchese, M., Zappa, M. A., Lesti, G., et al. (2004) · Obesity Surgery · doi:10.1381/096089204322917963 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
O'Brien, P. E., Dixon, J. B., Laurie, C., Skinner, S., Proietto, J., McNeil, J., Strauss, B., Marks, S., Schachter, L., Chapman, L., et al. (2006) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-144-9-200605020-00005 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Ribaric, G., Buchwald, J. N., & McGlennon, T. W. (2013) · Obesity Surgery · doi:10.1007/s11695-013-1160-3 · Cited by 267 · see citing works
Vistisen, D., Witte, D. R., Tabák, Á. G., Herder, C., Brunner, E. J., Mika Kivimaki, B., & Færch, K. (2014) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001602 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Wang, L., Lee, Y., Wu, Y., Zhang, X., Jin, C., Huang, Z., Wang, Y., Wang, Z., Kris‐Etherton, P. M., Wu, S., et al. (2020) · American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1093/ajcn/nqaa331 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Prediction of adult class II/III obesity from childhood BMI: the i3C consortium
Woo, J. G., Zhang, N., Fenchel, M. C., Jacobs, D. R., Hu, T., Urbina, E. M., Burns, T. L., Raitakari, O. T., Steinberger, J., Bazzano, L., et al. (2019) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/s41366-019-0461-6 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Body Mass Index Trajectories among Middle-Aged and Elderly Canadians and Associated Health Outcomes
Wang, M., Yi, Y., Roebothan, B., Colbourne, J., Maddalena, V., Wang, P., & Sun, G. (2016) · Journal of Environmental and Public Health · doi:10.1155/2016/7014857 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Dhana, K., van Rosmalen, J., Vistisen, D., Ikram, M. A., Albert Hofman, D., Franco, O. H., & Kavousi, M. (2016) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-016-0131-0 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Jeon, J., Jung, K. J., & Jee, S. H. (2019) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-019-7077-6 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Factors Associated With Semaglutide Initiation Among Adults With Obesity
Podolsky, M. I., Raquib, R., Shafer, P. R., Hempstead, K., Ellis, R. P., & Stokes, A. C. (2025) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.55222 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
BMI Trajectories from Birth to Young Adulthood
McGinty, S. M., Osganian, S. K., Feldman, H. A., Milliren, C. E., Field, A. E., & Richmond, T. K. (2018) · Obesity · doi:10.1002/oby.22176 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Trajectories of Body Mass Index from Young Adulthood to Middle Age among Canadian Men and Women
Wang, M., Yi, Y., Roebothan, B., Colbourne, J., Maddalena, V., Wang, P., & Sun, G. (2015) · Advances in Epidemiology · doi:10.1155/2015/121806 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Liu, R., Mi, B., Zhao, Y., Dang, S., & Yan, H. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92319-4 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Dutton, G. R., Kinsey, A. W., Howell, C. R., Pisu, M., Dobelstein, A., Allison, D. B., Xun, P., Levitsky, D. A., & Fontaine, K. R. (2021) · Contemporary Clinical Trials · doi:10.1016/j.cct.2021.106463 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Dreyer, N., Dixon, J., Okerson, T., Finkelstein, E., & Globe, D. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0078971 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Pereira, D. B. D. S., dos Santos, I. K. S., Pastorello, C. C. G., Mazzeti, C. M. D. S., Pereira, M. H. Q., Pereira, M. L. A. S., de Oliveira, M. H., & Conde, W. L. (2023) · American Journal of Human Biology · doi:10.1002/ajhb.24000 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Impact of self‐efficacy on risk aversion in the context of surgical weight loss decision scenarios
Turner, M. M., Johnson, A. C., & Lantz, P. M. (2019) · Clinical Obesity · doi:10.1111/cob.12311 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Wang, M. (2015) · Memorial University Research Repository (Memorial University)
Körpergewicht und Schwangerschaft – Grundlagen
Strauss, A. S. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-61906-3_1
- Authors
- Finkelstein, E. A., Østbye, T., & Malhotra, R.
- Affiliations
- National University of Singapore (SG)
- Corresponding author
- Malhotra, Rahul
- Venue
- Surgery for Obesity and Related Diseases
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2013-07
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 547-553.e1
- ISSN
- 1550-7289 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2036883276
- Cited by
- 17
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 1 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 1.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Surgery for Obesity and Related Diseases (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- National University of Singapore (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Bariatric Surgery and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Pharmacy › Obesity and Health Practices
- Keywords
- class I obesity, body mass index trajectories
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Body Height, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Obesity, Time Factors, Weight Gain, Body Mass Index, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution, Overweight
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
