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Cited by 104Climate change impacts on agricultureDemographic Trends and Gender PreferencesClimate Change Policy and Economics

Climate shocks constrain human fertility in Indonesia

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Sellers, Samuel, Gray, Clark·2019·World Development
DOI 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.02.003PMC PMC6581515
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Abstract

Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household- and individual-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviors and outcomes. These responses may have important implications for human and economic development and women's empowerment. Drawing on the literature linking climate conditions to rice cultivation in Indonesia, we use longitudinal household survey and high-resolution climate data to explore changes in childbearing intentions, family planning use, and births following community-level climate shocks from 1993 to 2015. We find that fertility intentions increase and family planning use declines in response to delays in monsoon onset occurring within the previous year, particularly for wealthier populations. However, women on farms are significantly more likely to use family planning and less likely to give birth following abnormally high temperatures during the previous five years. We also measure parallel shifts in household well-being as measured by rice, food, and non-food consumption expenditures. Our findings advance the environmental fertility literature by showing that longer duration environmental shocks can have impacts on fertility behaviors and outcomes. Collectively, our results illustrate human fertility responses to climate change in a country vulnerable to its effects, and demonstrate that in some cases, climate shocks can constrain human fertility.

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  • Climate-related extreme weather events tend to depress fertility.

    “While findings indicate that climate-related extreme weather events tend to depress fertility (Sellers & Gray 2019)”

    From Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences (2024) · cites this paper as Sellers & Gray 2019

    The Results and Discussion report lower fertility intentions after sustained high temperatures and fewer births among farm households after delayed monsoon onset. But the Discussion also reports increased fertility intentions after monsoon delays in other groups and little effect from short-term temperature shocks. The paper therefore supports some fertility-depressing effects, not a general tendency across climate-related extreme weather events; page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.87)

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Authors
Sellers, S., & Gray, C.
Affiliations
  • University of Washington (US)
  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
Corresponding author
Sellers, Samuel
ORCID
Venue
World Development
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2019-05
Volume
117
Pages
357-369
ISSN
0305-750X (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.02.003
PMC
PMC6581515
OpenAlex
W2917069865
Cited by
104
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 15 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 1
FWCI
7.24
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations
  • World Development (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina
  • Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Keywords
climate shocks, fertility, fertility intentions, family planning, monsoon onset, temperature anomalies, rice cultivation, household welfare, food consumption expenditure, Indonesia

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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