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Cited by 85Political Conflict and GovernancePeacebuilding and International SecurityTerrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

COVID-19 and armed conflict

Open access
Ide, Tobias·2021·World Development
DOI 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105355PMC PMC7833329
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Abstract

This article studies the impact of COVID-19 on armed conflict. The pandemic has significant health, economic and political effects. These can change the grievances and opportunity structures relevant for armed conflicts to either increase or decrease conflict risks. I analyse empirical evidence from Afghanistan, Colombia, India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Yemen from the first six months of 2020. Results suggest that COVID-19 provides little opportunities for health diplomacy and cooperation, but it also has not yet driven grievances to a level where they became relevant for armed conflicts. Four countries have encountered temporary declines in armed conflicts, mostly due to strategic decisions by governments or rebels to account for impeded logistics and to increase their popular support. Armed conflict levels have increased in five countries, with conflict parties exploiting either state weakness or a lack of (international) attention due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a worrisome trend given the tremendous impacts of armed conflict on human security and on the capabilities of countries to deal with health emergencies.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The article examines how the early COVID-19 pandemic affected armed conflict in nine conflict-affected countries during January–June 2020. It finds conflict declined in four countries and rose in five, with changes mostly driven by strategic calculations and shifting opportunities rather than by pandemic-related grievances or successful health diplomacy.

Key findings

  • Across nine countries, four saw temporary decreases in battles and explosions (Afghanistan, Colombia, Thailand, Yemen), often due to government or rebel decisions tied to logistics, legitimacy, or state capacity.
  • Five saw increases (India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Philippines), with conflict actors exploiting weakened state capacity or reduced international attention; COVID-19 accelerated existing conflict trends rather than altering root causes.
  • Ceasefire and health-diplomacy efforts had limited effect: armed groups in 14 countries announced COVID-related ceasefires, but in the studied cases these were mostly strategic and short-lived; Yemen’s Saudi-backed coalition ceasefire lasted one day.
  • Grievance-based escalation may matter more over longer horizons, especially via economic recession, ethnic or religious cleavages, and declining democracy, but the first six months showed little evidence that grievances had reached conflict-relevant levels.

Methods

  • Qualitative and quantitative assessment of armed conflict trends and drivers in nine countries: Afghanistan, Colombia, India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, and Yemen.
  • Period January to June 2020; uses battle and explosion event counts, COVID infection trends, a government response stringency index, and secondary qualitative sources.
  • Sample selected to cover varied geographies, politics, economies, and conflict types, but also constrained by data availability; Sub-Saharan Africa is excluded.

Limitations

  • The paper states that analysis is difficult at this stage, long-term impacts are hard to predict, and COVID-related data are uncertain and subject to political manipulation.
  • The paper states that the sample excludes Sub-Saharan Africa and was partly chosen for data availability; for Pakistan, concrete evidence that the Taliban exploited the pandemic is lacking.
  • Evident from the text: the six-month window and reliance on secondary reports limit causal inference; no explicit limitations section beyond these caveats is provided.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105355

Cites

26 of 26 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

5 of 49 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    High-intensity armed conflict increased the mortality of female non-combatants in Africa by 202%.

    “Wagner et al. (2019) find that high-intensity armed conflict increased the mortality of female non-combatants in Africa by 202%.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Wagner et al. (2019) source

      The Results report a 202% increase in mortality risk for women of childbearing age exposed to conflicts in the highest tenth of intensity, compared with no conflict. The claim omits that restriction: the paper reports a smaller, 51% increase for conflicts above the fifth decile, so 202% does not describe high-intensity conflict generally. It also does not establish the figure for female non-combatants of all ages. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    An increase in the frequency or intensity of armed conflict would seriously affect efforts to cope with the pandemic.

    “An increasing frequency or intensity of armed conflict, in turn, would seriously affect efforts to cope with the pandemic (Mehrl & Thurner, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Mehrl & Thurner, 2020 source
  • Premisecitation

    Countries with a medium level of democracy and highly repressive regimes are empirically much more likely to experience civil wars than consolidated democracies.

    “Countries with a medium level of democracy and highly repressive regimes are empirically much more likely to experience civil wars than consolidated democracies (Cederman & Vogt, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cederman & Vogt, 2017 source

      In “Civil-war Initiation” (page unavailable), the paper reports that semidemocracies are more prone to civil violence than stable autocracies and democracies, supporting the comparison for medium-level democracies. It does not report that highly repressive regimes are more likely than consolidated democracies to experience civil war; it also notes that the reported curvilinear democracy effect is not robust. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingown data

    COVID-19 has not yet raised grievances to a level that matters for armed conflicts.

    “but it also has not yet driven grievances to a level where they became relevant for armed conflicts.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    COVID-19 offers few opportunities for health diplomacy and cooperation.

    “Results suggest that COVID-19 provides little opportunities for health diplomacy and cooperation”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 30
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 14

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    COVID-19 undermines state capability because financial demands grow while the fiscal base is strained, tourism and commodity prices collapse, and police or military personnel may be infected or redeployed.

    “But COVID-19 also undermines state capability: While financial demands to the state growth, its fiscal base is strained due to a loss of tax revenues. The collapse of tourism and primary commodity prices (such as oil) affect the income of many states as well. Furthermore, members of the police and military might get infected, or are re-deployed to assist measures to contain the disease (Ataguba, 2”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Ataguba, 2020 source

      The Microeconomic Costs section says governments face higher COVID-19 spending while declining economic activity may reduce tax revenue, and that tourism businesses will have fewer clients. The Macroeconomic Burden section reports falling oil prices in Nigeria. The copy does not support the claim about police or military personnel being infected or redeployed, nor does it establish a collapse in primary commodity prices generally. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Bagozzi, 2016 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Many consequences of the pandemic, such as poor health, poverty and economic recession, can cause significant individual frustration and are well-established predictors of armed conflict.

    “Many consequences of the pandemic such as poor health, poverty and economic recession can lead to significant individual frustration, and are well-established predictors of armed conflict (Cederman & Vogt, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cederman & Vogt, 2017 source

      The Civil-war Initiation section describes poverty as a condition under which civil war may break out and recounts a theory linking frustration to violence. It does not establish poor health or economic recession as predictors of armed conflict, or show that these pandemic consequences cause individual frustration. The Aftermath of Civil War section discusses health harms as consequences of war, not predictors. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Four of the nine countries studied saw temporary declines in armed conflict during the first six months of 2020.

    “Four countries have encountered temporary declines in armed conflicts”
    • Also stated in: § Discussion and conclusion · plain
      “Results show that in four of the nine countries under study, the number of armed conflict events declined after the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    By the end of June 2020, all countries under study had bent their infection curves, making them broadly comparable.

    “Until the end of June 2020, all countries under study were able to bend their infection curves, hence making them broadly comparable.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Eight of the nine countries experienced a rapid spike of COVID-19 infections starting in mid to late March, while Yemen's infections rose only in late April.

    “As shown by Fig. 2 , eight of the nine countries experienced a rapid spike of COVID-19 infections starting in mid to late March, while infections in Yemen only rose in late April.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    All countries started with low to moderate restrictions in March, accelerated in April and May to index values above 80, with Thailand and Yemen as exceptions, and eased restrictions in June.

    “All countries started with low to moderate restrictions in March, accelerating in April and May to index values above 80, which indicate very tight restrictions (with the exceptions of Thailand and Yemen, which also saw the lowest case numbers). In June, governments eased restrictions in the face of plateauing case numbers (Yemen is again an exception).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Armed conflict levels increased in five of the nine countries during the first months of the pandemic.

    “Armed conflict levels have increased in five countries”
    • Also stated in: § Discussion and conclusion · plain
      “In five of the nine countries analysed, armed conflict prevalence increased in the face of the pandemic.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The Colombian government and military did not commit to a ceasefire but instigated fewer attacks.

    “The Colombian government and military did not commit to a ceasefire at all, but instigated fewer attacks.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Due to the pandemic, the international coalition supporting the Iraqi government stopped training activities and some joint missions, and pulled out troops.

    “Due to the pandemic, the international coalition supporting the government has also stopped training activities and some joint missions, and pulled out troops.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The military of Pakistan engaged in more battles with the Indian army and local Taliban groups from April 2020 onwards.

    “The military of Pakistan engaged in more battles with the Indian army and local Taliban groups from April 2020 onwards.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The rise of violence in Iraq during the first months of the pandemic was modest and non-linear, but there was a clear upward trend of IS-initiated attacks.

    “The rise of violence in Iraq during the first months of the pandemic has been modest and non-linear (perhaps due to Ramadan in late April and May), but there was a clear upward trend of IS-initiated attacks (Hanna, 2020, Sattar, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Hanna, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Sattar, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    When infections declined in late April, the Thai government resumed the war against the BRN while the BRN still lacked the capabilities for a full-scale response.

    “When infections declined in late April, it resumed the war against the BRN, while the latter still lacked the capabilities for a full-scale response (Keating, 2020, Pathan, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Keating, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Pathan, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Yemen was hit relatively late but hard by COVID-19.

    “Yemen was hit relatively late, yet hard by COVID-19.1”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    On April 9, the Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen's internationally recognised government declared a unilateral ceasefire to support the pandemic response, but it lasted only one day.

    “On April 9, the coalition supporting the internationally recognised Yemenite government led by Saudi Arabi declared a unilateral ceasefire to support the pandemic response, but the ceasefire only lasted one day.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    As GDPs decline, unemployment rises and international remittance flows are reduced by around 20%, livelihood insecurity will grow.

    “As GDPs decline, unemployment is on the rise and international remittance flows are reduced by around 20% (World Bank, 2020), livelihood insecurity will grow.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites World Bank, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Grievances are too widespread to explain relatively rare phenomena like armed conflict.

    “However, Fearon and Laitin (2003) argue that grievances are far too widespread to explain relatively rare phenomena like armed conflict.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Capable states can deal with the impacts of COVID-19 by extending social security nets, mediating emerging conflicts, and disarming violent groups.

    “Capable states can deal with these impacts of COVID-19 by extending social security nets, mediating emerging conflicts, and disarming violent groups (Sobek, 2010).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Sobek, 2010 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Armed conflicts can be driven by grievances and opportunities.

    “Broadly speaking, armed conflicts can be driven by grievances and opportunities (Taydas, Enia, & James, 2011).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Taydas, Enia, & James, 2011 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Explanations of armed conflict should focus on factors that give aggrieved groups the opportunity to start and sustain violent confrontations.

    “In their view, explanations should instead focus on factors that provide aggrieved groups with the opportunity to start and sustain violent confrontations, such as the availability of recruits, weapons, and hideouts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Rebel groups and militias face challenges in raising money and food, convincing members to take part in operations, and dealing with logistical constraints of lockdowns and border closures.

    “They need to raise money and food to supply to their fighters during an economic recession, convince their members to take part in operations rather than staying at home (to reduce infection risks and support their family or community), and deal with the logistical constraints of lockdowns and border closures.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Xenophobic attributes and actions harden pre-existing cleavages.

    “Such xenophobic attributes and actions harden pre-existing cleavages.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    COVID-19 might provide a chance to demonstrate solidarity and good intentions, and thereby lessen grievances.

    “COVID-19 might also provide a chance to demonstrate solidarity and good intentions, and hence lessen grievances.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    High levels of disease prevalence and the associated loss in life expectancy reduce the relative risks of individuals joining dangerous activities like rebellion.

    “In the same vein, Kustra (2017) argues that high levels of disease prevalence and the associated loss in life expectancy reduces the relative risks of individuals for joining dangerous activities like rebellion.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kustra (2017) source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    GDP decline and poor health are established predictors of civil war.

    “Factors like GDP decline and poor health are also among the established predictors of civil war (Cederman & Weidmann, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cederman & Weidmann, 2017 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Clashes between the Indian and Pakistani militaries were a result of longer-standing tensions and thus unrelated to the pandemic.

    “Clashes between both countries’ militaries were a result of longer-standing tensions and thus unrelated to the pandemic (Staniland, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Staniland, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The presence of Indian state security forces on the ground was reduced due to fears of infection, and the Maoists' supply lines were negatively affected by a comprehensive lockdown.

    “The presence of state security forces on the ground has been reduced due to fears of infection and the Maoists’ supply lines were negatively affected by a comprehensive lockdown.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Similar concerns exist regarding recruitment in Colombia and India.

    “Similar concerns exist regarding recruitment in Colombia and India.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    There are concerns that rebels use the lack of state presence and economic deprivation caused by a heavy lockdown to recruit for future offensives.

    “There are concerns, however, that the rebels use the lack of state presence and economic deprivation caused by a heavy lockdown to recruit for future offensives (Bhardwaj, 2020, Kujur, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Bhardwaj, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Kujur, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    It is plausible that groups like the Taliban attempted to exploit a situation of state weakness, more difficult border controls with Afghanistan, widespread dissatisfaction with the government's response, and increased poverty that makes recruitment easier.

    “It is plausible that groups like the Taliban have attempted to exploit a situation where the state is weakened, border controls with Afghanistan get more difficult, dissatisfaction with the government’s response is widespread (especially among religious groups), and a rise in poverty makes recruitment easier (Ahmed, 2020, Guz, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Ahmed, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Guz, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The Islamic State sought to exploit the current weakness of the Iraqi state to expand its territorial control, thus launching additional attacks.

    “Nonetheless, the group sought to exploit the current weakness of the Iraqi state to expand its territorial control, thus launching additional attacks.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Theoretically, the pandemic could affect conflict risks through increased grievances, possibilities to demonstrate solidarity, or modified opportunity structures for armed groups.

    “Theoretically, the pandemic could affect conflict risks through increased grievances, possibilities to demonstrate solidarity, or modified opportunity structures for armed groups.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    COVID-19 can impact armed conflict risks, and armed conflicts themselves are an important obstacle in dealing with the pandemic.

    “Besides its immediate health and economic effects, COVID-19 can also impact armed conflict risks, with these conflicts themselves being an important obstacle in dealing with the pandemic.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Reports indicate that increased poverty and school closures due to the pandemic facilitate recruitment by the ELN, which would increase conflict risks over the long term.

    “There are reports, however, that increased poverty and school closures due to the pandemic facilitate recruitment by the ELN, which would increase conflict risks over the long term (Alsema, 2020, Burnyeat and Gomez-Suarez, 2020, Loaiza, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Alsema, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Burnyeat and Gomez-Suarez, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Loaiza, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    In the five countries with increased conflict, COVID-19 did not change the root causes or principal dynamics of the armed conflicts, but it accelerated existing trends and provided strategic opportunities for armed groups to exploit.

    “COVID-19 did not change the root causes or principal dynamics of the armed conflicts in any of these five countries, but it accelerated existing trends and provided strategic opportunities for armed groups to exploit.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The economic repercussions associated with the current global spike in infections could exceed the coping capacities of households that did relatively well during the first COVID-19 wave.

    “The economic repercussions associated with the current global spike in infections could exceed the coping capacities of households that did relatively well during the first COVID-19 wave.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Two factors are particularly relevant: the weakening of state institutions and a lack of international public attention.

    “Two factors are particularly relevant here: The weakening of state institutions (providing incentives for rebels to intensify military pressure) and a lack of (international) public attention (allowing to extend military operations without backlashes).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Both Libyan parties aimed to launch decisive strikes and received significant logistical and material support from their international patrons.

    “Both parties aimed to launch decisive strikes and received significant logistical and material support from their international patrons.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    In coincidence with ethnic or religious cleavages, this could raise discontent to a level at which armed conflicts erupt.

    “In coincidence with ethnic or religious cleavages, this could raise discontent to a level at which armed conflicts erupt.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The Colombian government and military instigated fewer attacks likely because resources were shifted to support the pandemic response.

    “However, this is likely because resources were shifted to support the pandemic response.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    In Iraq, the government's capabilities were severely strained by the crisis, partly because oil prices collapsed and military forces were preoccupied with COVID-19 responses.

    “In Iraq, the capabilities of the government have been severely strained by the crisis, among others because oil prices collapsed and military forces were preoccupied with COVID-19 responses (e.g., enforcing curfews).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The Houthi rebels had to devote more resources to managing the pandemic and associated grievances in areas they controlled, while support from Iran declined.

    “Likewise, the other main party to the conflict, the Houthi rebels, had to devote more resources to manage the pandemic and deal with the associated grievances in the areas it controlled, while support from Iran (heavily affected by COVID-19 and US sanctions) declined.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The pandemic accelerated the Libya escalation in two minor ways: it distracted world attention from both sides ignoring the January 2020 peace agreement, and both sides believed the other might collapse under military and virus pressure.

    “But the pandemic accelerated this escalation in two minor ways: It distracted the world’s attention from the fact that both sides ignored the peace agreement concluded in January 2020. Furthermore, the GNA and the LNA believed that the other side might collapse very soon under the combined pressure of military offensives and the virus (Allahoum, 2020, Mustasilta, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Allahoum, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Mustasilta, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

42 of 42

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Grievances usually take time to translate into organised armed activities.

    “However, grievances usually take time to translate into organised armed activities.”
1 of 1

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Related

Authors
Ide, T.
Affiliations
The University of Melbourne (AU)
Corresponding author
Ide, Tobias
ORCID
Ide, Tobias
Venue
World Development
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2021-04
Volume
140
Pages
105355
ISSN
0305-750X (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105355
PMC
PMC7833329
OpenAlex
W3040506214
Semantic Scholar
ec64ff7c43d6742b3d372b13ddfc2db4f0733f5b
Cited by
85
References
27
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 2
FWCI
21.39
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • World Development (publishedVersion)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Murdoch University Research Portal (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
Australian Research Council
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Peacebuilding and International Security
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, armed conflict, conflict escalation, conflict de-escalation, health diplomacy, grievances, armed groups, state weakness, global attention, human security, health emergencies

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