Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?
Abstract
This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly compared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial progress in this field.
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GDP decline and poor health are established predictors of civil war.
“Factors like GDP decline and poor health are also among the established predictors of civil war (Cederman & Weidmann, 2017).”
From COVID-19 and armed conflict (2021) · cites this paper as Cederman & Weidmann, 2017
In cases where the effectiveness of specific conflict resolution methods is associated with high uncertainty, early warning systems may be of limited use even if their predictive performance were to improve considerably.
“In cases where the effectiveness of specific conflict resolution methods is associated with high uncertainty, early warning systems may be of limited use even if their predictive performance were to improve considerably (Cederman and Weidmann 2017).”
From Dynamics and Logics of Civil War (2017) · cites this paper as Cederman and Weidmann 2017
Cites
Muchlinski, D., Siroky, D., He, J., & Kocher, M. (2016) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpv024 · Cited by 234 · see citing works
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Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration
Salganik, M. J., Lundberg, I., Kindel, A. T., Ahearn, C. E., Al-Ghoneim, K., Almaatouq, A., Altschul, D. M., Brand, J. E., Carnegie, N. B., Compton, R. J., et al. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1915006117 · Cited by 322 · see citing works
Dynamics and Logics of Civil War
Cederman, L.-E., & Vogt, M. (2017) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002717721385 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
Self-citationMulti-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk
Ide, T., Brzoska, M., Donges, J. F., & Schleussner, C.-F. (2020) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Ide, T. (2021) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105355 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of “Big Data” and Machine Learning
Blair, R. A., & Sambanis, N. (2020) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002720918923 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Wang, Y. (2019) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1017/pan.2018.40 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
The Macroeconomic Costs of Conflict
Novta, N., & Pugacheva, E. (2020) · IMF Working Papers · doi:10.5089/9781513547756.001 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
- Authors
- Cederman, L.-E., & Weidmann, N. B.
- Affiliations
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- University of Konstanz (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Cederman, Lars-Erik
- Weidmann, Nils B.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2017-02-03
- Volume
- 355
- Issue
- 6324
- Pages
- 474-476
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2585642493
- Cited by
- 156
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 20 · 2019: 22 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 9
- FWCI
- 42.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Alexander von Humboldt Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Peacebuilding and International Security
- Keywords
- political violence, early warning systems
- MeSH terms
- Armed Conflicts, Forecasting, Humans, Violence
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