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Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment
Open accessAbstract
We use a panel of annual data for over 100 developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine the composition of the debt as well as its level, and a variety of other macroeconomic factors, external and foreign. Crashes tend to occur when: output growth is low; the growth of domestic credit is high; and the level of foreign interest rates are high. A low ratio of FDI to debt is consistently associated with a high likelihood of a crash.
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Research works printed but not linked: 9
- Calvo, 1993, Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors, IMF Staff Papers, 40, 108, 10.2307/3867379 · DOI
- Chuhan, 1994, Equity and Bond Flows to Latin America and Asia: The Role of Global and Country Factors, World Bank mimeo
- Chuhan, 1995, International Capital Flows: Do Short-Term Investment and Direct Investment Differ?, World Bank mimeo
- Cole, 1995, Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, mimeo
- Connolly, 1986, The Speculative Attack on the Peso and the Real Exchange Rate, J. Int. Money Finance, 5, 117, 10.1016/0261-5606(86)90025-2 · doi:10.1016/0261-5606(86)90025-2
- Dooley, 1994, Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?, NBER WP No. 4792
- Kaminsky, 1995, The Twin Crises, IMF mimeo
- Krugman, 1979, A Model of Balance of Payments Crises, J. Money, Credit and Banking, 11, 311, 10.2307/1991793 · DOI · Paper page
- Santaella, 1995, Four Decades of Fund Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stylized Facts before the Adjustment Programs, IMF WP/95/74
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Metadata
- Authors
- Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K.
- Venue
- Journal of International Economics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1996-11
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 3-4
- Pages
- 351-366
- ISSN
- 0022-1996 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2059893430
- Cited by
- 1,934
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 71.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- Licence
- www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
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