The DOI matches its Crossref record; 23 of the 23 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study
Open accessAbstract
Background A novel influenza A(H7N9) virus has emerged in China during the past few months. Inter-species zoonotic transmission appears to be the predominant route of spread. Live poultry markets (LPMs) in the major cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou and Nanjing, where the majority of cases have occurred, were swiftly closed as a precautionary public health measure. Our objective was to quantify the impact of LPM closure in reducing bird-to-human transmission of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. Methods We used data on the illness onset dates and geographical locations of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H7N9) cases that were officially announced by 7 June 2013. We constructed a statistical model to explain the patterns in incident cases reported in each city based on the assumption of a constant force of infection prior to closure, and a different constant force of infection after closure. We fitted the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Findings There were 85 confirmed influenza A(H7N9) cases in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou and Nanjing out of a total of 130 confirmed cases in mainland China by 7 June 2013. Closure of LPMs in those four cities reduced the risk of human infections by 97%–99% (range 68%–100%) in each city. Given that LPMs were the predominant source of influenza A(H7N9) exposure in those locations, we estimated the mean incubation period to be 3.3 days. Interpretation LPM closures were extremely effective in controlling human risk of influenza A(H7N9). If the influenza A(H7N9) epizootic/epidemic continues, LPM closure should be sustained in at-risk areas and implemented in any urban areas where influenza A(H7N9) reappears in future. In the longer term, evidence-based discussions and deliberations about the role of central slaughtering of all live poultry should be renewed. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease and University Grants Committee, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; and the US National Institutes of Health.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Yu, H., Wu, J. T., Cowling, B. J., Liao, Q., Fang, V. J., Zhou, S., Wu, P., Zhou, H., Lau, E. H. Y., Guo, D., Ni, M. Y., Peng, Z., Feng, L., Jiang, H., Luo, H., Li, Q., Feng, Z., Wang, Y., Yang, W., & Leung, G. M.
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2014-02
- Volume
- 383
- Issue
- 9916
- Pages
- 541-548
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W2167692034
- Cited by
- 284
- References
- 23
- FWCI
- 25.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Yu, H., Wu, J. T., Cowling, B. J., Liao, Q., Fang, V. J., Zhou, S., Wu, P., Zhou, H., Lau, E. H. Y., Guo, D., Ni, M. Y., Peng, Z., Feng, L., Jiang, H., Luo, H., Li, Q., Feng, Z., Wang, Y., Yang, W., & Leung, G. M. (2014). Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(13)61904-2
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