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Blood pressure and incidence of twelve cardiovascular diseases: lifetime risks, healthy life-years lost, and age-specific associations in 1.25 million people
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: The associations of blood pressure with the different manifestations of incident cardiovascular disease in a contemporary population have not been compared. In this study, we aimed to analyse the associations of blood pressure with 12 different presentations of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We used linked electronic health records from 1997 to 2010 in the CALIBER (CArdiovascular research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records) programme to assemble a cohort of 1·25 million patients, 30 years of age or older and initially free from cardiovascular disease, a fifth of whom received blood pressure-lowering treatments. We studied the heterogeneity in the age-specific associations of clinically measured blood pressure with 12 acute and chronic cardiovascular diseases, and estimated the lifetime risks (up to 95 years of age) and cardiovascular disease-free life-years lost adjusted for other risk factors at index ages 30, 60, and 80 years. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01164371. FINDINGS: During 5·2 years median follow-up, we recorded 83,098 initial cardiovascular disease presentations. In each age group, the lowest risk for cardiovascular disease was in people with systolic blood pressure of 90-114 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure of 60-74 mm Hg, with no evidence of a J-shaped increased risk at lower blood pressures. The effect of high blood pressure varied by cardiovascular disease endpoint, from strongly positive to no effect. Associations with high systolic blood pressure were strongest for intracerebral haemorrhage (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·32-1·58]), subarachnoid haemorrhage (1·43 [1·25-1·63]), and stable angina (1·41 [1·36-1·46]), and weakest for abdominal aortic aneurysm (1·08 [1·00-1·17]). Compared with diastolic blood pressure, raised systolic blood pressure had a greater effect on angina, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease, whereas raised diastolic blood pressure had a greater effect on abdominal aortic aneurysm than did raised systolic pressure. Pulse pressure associations were inverse for abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR per 10 mm Hg 0·91 [95% CI 0·86-0·98]) and strongest for peripheral arterial disease (1·23 [1·20-1·27]). People with hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or those receiving blood pressure-lowering drugs) had a lifetime risk of overall cardiovascular disease at 30 years of age of 63·3% (95% CI 62·9-63·8) compared with 46·1% (45·5-46·8) for those with normal blood pressure, and developed cardiovascular disease 5·0 years earlier (95% CI 4·8-5·2). Stable and unstable angina accounted for most (43%) of the cardiovascular disease-free years of life lost associated with hypertension from index age 30 years, whereas heart failure and stable angina accounted for the largest proportion (19% each) of years of life lost from index age 80 years. INTERPRETATION: The widely held assumptions that blood pressure has strong associations with the occurrence of all cardiovascular diseases across a wide age range, and that diastolic and systolic associations are concordant, are not supported by the findings of this high-resolution study. Despite modern treatments, the lifetime burden of hypertension is substantial. These findings emphasise the need for new blood pressure-lowering strategies, and will help to inform the design of randomised trials to assess them. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, and Wellcome Trust.
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“High blood pressure (BP) is the single leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease worldwide,1–4”
From International Consensus on Standardized Clinic Blood Pressure Measurement – A Call to Action (2023) · cites this paper as [4]
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“Admittedly, the differences of 5.11 and 3.12 mm Hg respectively for systolic and diastolic BP between the welders and controls in the longitudinal study are rather subtle in relation to known risks of CVD ( 10, 23 ).”
InfluentialChowdhury, M. A. B., Islam, M., Rahman, J., Uddin, M. T., Haque, M. R., & Uddin, M. J. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0259507 · Cited by 25
Puberty Timing and Sex-Specific Trajectories of Systolic Blood Pressure: a Prospective Cohort Study
O’Neill, K., Bell, J. A., Smith, G. D., Tilling, K. M., Kearney, P. M., & O’Keeffe, L. M. (2022) · Hypertension · doi:10.1161/hypertensionaha.121.18531 · Cited by 25
Sharp, A. S. P., Cao, K. N., Esler, M., Kandzari, D. E., Lobo, M. D., Schmieder, R. E., & Pietzsch, J. B. (2024) · European Heart Journal - Quality of Care and Clinical Outcomes · doi:10.1093/ehjqcco/qcae001 · Cited by 27
Hemingway, H., Feder, G. S., Fitzpatrick, N. K., Denaxas, S., Shah, A. D., & Timmis, A. (2017) · Programme Grants for Applied Research · doi:10.3310/pgfar05040 · Cited by 27
Self-citationPredictors of Undiagnosed and Uncontrolled Hypertension in the Local Community of Byblos, Lebanon
Kanj, H., Khalil, A., Kossaify, M., & Kossaify, A. (2018) · Health Services Insights · doi:10.1177/1178632918791576 · Cited by 25
Omboni, S., & Volpe, M. (2018) · Advances in Therapy · doi:10.1007/s12325-018-0859-x · Cited by 25
“The rise in systolic blood pressure (SBP) has a greater effect on angina, myocardial infarction and peripheral artery disease, whereas increased diastolic blood pressure (DBP) is mainly associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm [3].”
BackgroundJohnson, K., Oparil, S., Davis, B. R., & Tereshchenko, L. G. (2019) · Journal of the American Heart Association · doi:10.1161/jaha.119.011961 · Cited by 25
Brunt, A., Albines, D., & Hopkins-Rosseel, D. H. (2019) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm8030294 · Cited by 27
Cortese, F., Cecere, A., Cortese, A. M., Andriani, A., Truncellito, L., Valente, F., Giordano, P., & Ciccone, M. M. (2020) · Journal of Human Hypertension · doi:10.1038/s41371-020-0307-7 · Cited by 25
Socioeconomic Status Transition Throughout Life and Risk of Dementia
Sakaniwa, R., Shirai, K., Cadar, D., Saito, T., Kondo, K., Kawachi, I. I., Steptoe, A., & Iso, H. (2024) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.12303 · Cited by 24
Omboni, S., & Volpe, M. (2018) · Cardiovascular Therapeutics · doi:10.1111/1755-5922.12471 · Cited by 24
Blood Pressure and Risk of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in China
McGurgan, I. J., Clarke, R., Lacey, B., Kong, X. L., Chen, Z., Chen, Y., Yu, C., Bian, Z., Li, L., & Lewington, S. (2018) · Stroke · doi:10.1161/strokeaha.118.022239 · Cited by 24
Rietsema, S., Eelderink, C., Joustra, M. L., van Vliet, I. M. Y., van Londen, M., Corpeleijn, E., Singh‐Povel, C. M., Geurts, J. M. W., Kootstra‐Ros, J. E., Westerhuis, R., et al. (2019) · American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1093/ajcn/nqz116 · Cited by 24
Satoh, M., Ohkubo, T., Asayama, K., Murakami, Y., Sugiyama, D., Waki, T., Tanaka‐Mizuno, S., Yamada, M., Saitoh, S., Sakata, K., et al. (2020) · Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis · doi:10.5551/jat.52613 · Cited by 24
Wagata, M., Kogure, M., Nakaya, N., Tsuchiya, N., Nakamura, T., Hirata, T., Narita, A., Metoki, H., Ishikuro, M., Kikuya, M., et al. (2020) · Hypertension Research · doi:10.1038/s41440-020-0463-8 · Cited by 24
Piko, N., Bevc, S., Hojs, R., Naji, F. H., & Ekart, R. (2021) · BMC Cardiovascular Disorders · doi:10.1186/s12872-021-01859-0 · Cited by 24
“CVD is one of the leading causes of death in Western countries, contributing to over one-third of deaths in patients aged 35 years or more [4], with men more often affected than women [5].”
BackgroundStewart, S., Chan, Y., Playford, D. A., & Strange, G. A. (2021) · European Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1183/13993003.00832-2021 · Cited by 24
“Our data is consistent with similar studies in systemic hypertension [30], in which minor elevations in systemic blood pressure have profound implications on LYL when applied across an entire cohort.”
Racial Differences in Blood Pressure Control Following Stroke: The REGARDS Study
Akinyelure, O. P., Jaeger, B. C., Moore, T. L., Hubbard, D. M., Oparil, S., Howard, V. J., Howard, G., Buie, J. N., Magwood, G. S., Adams, R. J., et al. (2021) · Stroke · doi:10.1161/strokeaha.120.033108 · Cited by 24
Identifying peripheral arterial disease in the elderly patients using machine-learning algorithms
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“HTN is the most important risk factor for heart failure (HF) development, with recent evidence indicating that HTN is present in 76% of incident HF cases [4], and the lifetime risk of HF is almost twice as high in people with HTN as in those with normal blood pressure (BP) [5,6].”
BackgroundHendriks, M. E., Rosendaal, N. T. A., Wit, F. W. N. M., Bolarinwa, O. A., Kramer, B., Brals, D., Gustafsson‐Wright, E., Adenusi, P., Brewster, L. M., Osagbemi, G. K., et al. (2015) · International Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.ijcard.2015.09.036 · Cited by 24
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Zhang, Y., Jiang, X., Bo, J., Yin, L., Chen, H., Wang, Y., Yu, H., Wang, X., & Li, W. (2017) · Journal of Hypertension · doi:10.1097/hjh.0000000000001528 · Cited by 24
“Prospective observational studies suggest that the risk of cardiovascular disease in the general population starts to increase when blood pressure (BP) level is beyond 114/74 mmHg [12,13].”
BackgroundBoos, C. J., Hein, A., & Khattab, A. (2024) · Journal of Clinical Hypertension · doi:10.1111/jch.14755 · Cited by 23
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Therapeutic Approach to Hypertension Urgencies and Emergencies During Acute Coronary Syndrome
Tocci, G., Figliuzzi, I., Presta, V., Miceli, F., Citoni, B., Coluccia, R., Musumeci, B., Ferrucci, A., & Volpe, M. (2018) · High Blood Pressure & Cardiovascular Prevention · doi:10.1007/s40292-018-0275-y · Cited by 23
Drug-induced hypertension: Know the problem to know how to deal with it
Masi, S., Uliana, M., Gesi, M., Taddei, S., & Virdis, A. (2019) · Vascular Pharmacology · doi:10.1016/j.vph.2019.02.002 · Cited by 27
Yan, W., Gao, Y., Zhang, Y., Guo, Y., Wang, J., Jiang, L., Li, Y., & Yang, Z. (2021) · Cardiovascular Diabetology · doi:10.1186/s12933-021-01262-1 · Cited by 23
Shimada, T., Mascha, E. J., Yang, D., Bravo, M., Rivas, E., Ince, I., Turan, A., & Sessler, D. I. (2022) · European Journal of Anaesthesiology · doi:10.1097/eja.0000000000001656 · Cited by 23
Marazzato, J., Blasi, F., Golino, M., Verdecchia, P., Angeli, F., & Ponti, R. D. (2022) · Journal of Cardiovascular Development and Disease · doi:10.3390/jcdd9040110 · Cited by 23
Ma, T., He, L., Luo, Y., Li, J., Zhang, G., Cheng, X., & Bai, Y. (2022) · European Journal of Nutrition · doi:10.1007/s00394-022-02889-w · Cited by 23
“Participants who reported other CMDs combined with hypertension (n = 40,514) at baseline, or had missing data on the use of fish oil and covariates (n = 1222 in fish oil use, n = 19 in the dates of outcome occurrences, n = 23,511 in physical activity, and n = 2303 in other covariates) were excluded.”
ResultInfluential
Metadata
- Authors
- Rapsomaniki, E., Timmis, A., George, J., Pujades-Rodriguez, M., Shah, A. D., Denaxas, S., White, I. R., Caulfield, M. J., Deanfield, J. E., Smeeth, L., Williams, B., Hingorani, A., & Hemingway, H.
- Affiliations
- Farr Institute (GB)
- Queen Mary University of London (GB)
- MRC Biostatistics Unit (GB)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Rapsomaniki, Eleni
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2014-05
- Volume
- 383
- Issue
- 9932
- Pages
- 1899-1911
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC4042017
- OpenAlex
- W2169428949
- Cited by
- 1,643
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 79 · 2025: 117 · 2024: 145 · 2023: 161 · 2022: 162 · 2021: 192 · 2020: 168 · 2019: 163 · 2018: 142 · 2017: 117 · 2016: 94 · 2015: 66 · 2014: 34
- FWCI
- 71.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (RP-PG-0407–10314)
- Wellcome Trust (086091/Z/08/Z, 0938/30/Z/10/Z)
- Medical Research Council Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) Partnership (G0902393/99558)
- Medical Research Council, Arthritis Research UK, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chief Scientist Office, Economic and Social Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, NIHR, National Institute for Social Care and Health Research, and Wellcome Trust (MR/K006584/1)
- NIHR Doctoral Fellowship (DRF-2009–02–50)
- Medical Research Council (U105260558)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Blood Pressure and Hypertension Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Disease Prevention
- Health Sciences › Nursing › Nutrition and Dietetics › Sodium Intake and Health
- Keywords
- blood pressure, cardiovascular disease incidence, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, lifetime risk, healthy life years lost, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, myocardial infarction, stable angina, peripheral arterial disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm, stroke, hypertension, age-specific associations, blood pressure-lowering treatment, J-curve
- MeSH terms
- Acute Disease, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Angina Pectoris, Antihypertensive Agents, Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases, Chronic Disease, England, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Hypertension, Male, Medical Record Linkage, Middle Aged, Subarachnoid Hemorrhage, Incidence, Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal, Age Distribution, Risk Assessment, Intracranial Hemorrhage, Hypertensive
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