Lancet COVID-19 Commission Statement on the occasion of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The US death rate of 3.0 per million per day in August 2020 corresponds to about 1000 deaths per day, and Brazil's 4.4 per million per day corresponds to about 900 deaths per day.

“the US death rate in August of 3·0 deaths per million per day signifies around 1000 deaths per day, and the Brazil death rate of 4·4 deaths per million per day signifies around 900 deaths per day.”

May combine two claims.

The Asia-Pacific region largely suppressed COVID-19 transmission and mortality (less than 10 deaths per million), while western Europe and the Americas had very high transmission and mortality (several hundred deaths per million in several countries).

“The great divide in the outcomes of the epidemic has been the relative success of the Asia–Pacific region compared with western Europe and the Americas. The Asia–Pacific region has largely suppressed transmission and mortality (less than 10 deaths per million). Western Europe and the Americas have had very high transmission and mortality (several hundred deaths per million in several countries).”

• Also stated in: § Section 2: the urgency of suppressing the pandemic · plain

  “We note that ten of the 19 are in the Asia–Pacific region, the highest performing region globally.”

• Also stated in: § Section 2: the urgency of suppressing the pandemic · plain

  “We note that six of the 11 countries are in the Americas.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Many low-income countries, such as Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam, suppressed the COVID-19 epidemic.

“Many low-income countries have suppressed the epidemic, such as Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam.”

May combine two claims.

Ten of the 19 places that achieved suppression in August 2020 are in the Asia-Pacific region, the highest performing region globally.

“We note that ten of the 19 are in the Asia–Pacific region, the highest performing region globally.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Six of the 11 countries with very high transmission in August 2020 are in the Americas.

“We note that six of the 11 countries are in the Americas.”

May combine two claims.

There is suggestive evidence that school closures might reduce R, but studies cannot disentangle the effect of school closures from other simultaneous interventions.

“there is some suggestive evidence that school closures might have a role in reducing R, although studies have not been able to disentangle the effect of school closures from other interventions that occur simultaneously, such as more widespread NPIs and closures of other businesses.”

May combine two claims.

The Asia-Pacific region largely suppressed the epidemic or kept it to very low levels and low mortality rates (less than 10 deaths per million).

“The Asia–Pacific region has largely suppressed the epidemic or at least kept it to very low levels and low mortality rates (less than 10 deaths per million).”

May combine two claims.

Shortages of key medical equipment and supplies slowed the initial response to the pandemic and continue to hamper the response in many countries.

“Shortages of key medical equipment and supplies (eg, face masks, ICU beds, chemical reagents for testing) also slowed the initial response to the pandemic and continue to hamper the response in many countries.”

May combine two claims.

In Cambodia, Lao PDR, Viet Nam, and Uganda, cumulative death rates were below one per million, compared with more than 570 per million in the United States as of Sept 2, 2020.

“In these four countries, cumulative death rates have been held below one per million, compared, for instance, with more than 570 per million (as of Sept 2, 2020) in the United States.”

May combine two claims.

In many countries, after lockdown was lifted, R rose above 1 and the epidemic returned to exponential growth.

“As a result, when the lockdown was lifted, R soared above 1 again, and the epidemic reverted to its exponential upwards path.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

In western Kenya, community health worker response scaled up rapidly, covering 200,000 people in one district.

“Examples of effective and rapid scaling up of community health worker response can be observed in western Kenya, where 200 000 people in one district were covered by these efforts.”

May combine two claims.

The pandemic is soaring throughout the Americas, a region of high and chronic inequality.

“It is no coincidence that the pandemic is soaring throughout the Americas, a region of high and chronic inequality.”

May combine two claims.

Evidence of widespread viral transmission within schools is currently limited, and evidence on schools' role in community spread is mixed.

“There is currently limited evidence of widespread viral transmission within schools; evidence on their role in community spread is mixed.”

May combine two claims.

The Asia-Pacific region had relatively better epidemic outcomes than western Europe and the Americas, with most of the rest of the world in between.

“The great divide in the outcomes of the epidemic has been the relative success of the Asia–Pacific region compared with western Europe and the Americas, with most of the rest of the world somewhere in between.”

May combine two claims.

Several countries persistently failed to suppress the epidemic, sustaining long periods of R above 1 and incurring some of the world's highest rates of infections and deaths per million.

“Several countries have persistently failed to suppress the epidemic, sustaining long periods of R above 1 and incurring some of the world's highest rates of infections and deaths per million population.”

May combine two claims.

Western Europe and the Americas had very high spread and, in many cases, very high mortality rates (several hundred deaths per million).

“Western Europe and the Americas have had very high spread of the epidemic and, in many cases, very high mortality rates (several hundred deaths per million).”

May combine two claims.

Many countries had lockdowns but undertook insufficient efforts to instate necessary NPIs.

“Many countries engaged in periods of lockdown but undertook insufficient efforts to instate necessary NPIs.”

May combine two claims.

At every level of transmission, some countries had falling transmission (R<1) and some had rising transmission (R>1).

“At every level of transmission, from suppression to very high, there are some countries with transmission falling (R<1) and some with transmission rising (R>1).”

May combine two claims.

The pandemic can be controlled, as demonstrated by countries that have largely suppressed it.

“The pandemic can be controlled, as shown clearly by the countries that have largely suppressed it.”

May combine two claims.

The IFR of COVID-19 is very low for younger populations and much higher for older people.

“but to be very low for younger populations (about 3 deaths per 100 000 for people aged 0–19, 4 deaths per 10 000 for people aged 20–49, and 6 deaths per 1000 for people aged 50–69), and much higher for older people (5 deaths per 100 for people older than 70 years).35”

• cites [35] Barriuso R Perez-Gomez B Hernan MA SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality risk in a nationwide seroepidemiological study medRxiv 2020 published online Aug 7. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.06.20169722v1 (preprint) PMC7690290 33246972Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

As of Aug 30, 2020, there had been more than 850,000 deaths and 25,000,000 confirmed infections due to COVID-19.

“As of Aug 30, 2020, there had been more than 850 000 deaths and 25 000 000 confirmed infections due to COVID-19.10”

• cites [10] Johns Hopkins University and Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.htmlNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The COVID-19 pandemic can be suppressed through non-pharmaceutical interventions that reduce transmission, followed by the rapid introduction of effective and safe vaccines.

“The COVID-19 pandemic can be suppressed through non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that reduce the transmission of the virus, which should be followed by the introduction of effective and safe vaccines as rapidly as scientific advances permit.”

• Also stated in: § The urgency of suppressing the pandemic · plain

  “The COVID-19 epidemic can and should be suppressed through non-pharmaceutical interventions, including effective community health services, that cut transmission of the virus, to be followed by the introduction of effective and safe vaccines as rapidly as science permits.”

May combine two claims.

High case fatality rates result from structural factors including a high proportion of older people, insufficient protection of care centres, low ICU beds, poor treatment protocols and health-care coverage, high prevalence of pre-existing conditions, and environmental factors like air pollution.

“As already noted, high CFRs result from several structural factors, including a high proportion of older people (aged ≥70 years) in the population, insufficient protection of care centres for older people from infection, a low number of ICU beds per population, poor treatment protocols and health-care coverage (eg, late diagnosis and treatment), high prevalence of pre-existing health conditions (e”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The effective reproduction number R measures the change of the epidemic, not the rate of transmission, which is better measured by incidence.

“Most importantly, R measures the change of the epidemic, not the rate of transmission, which is better measured by incidence: the number of new cases per million population per day.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic requires keeping the effective reproduction number R below 1 on a sustained basis.

“On a conceptual level, suppression of the epidemic requires keeping R below 1 on a sustained basis.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Community health workers can contribute to controlling community spread and protecting vulnerable people through testing, education on prevention, and treatment.

“Community health workers can contribute to controlling community spread and protecting vulnerable people, particularly through testing, education on prevention, and treatment.”

May combine two claims.

The United States is the most unequal economy among high-income democracies, and Brazil is among the most unequal countries in the world.

“The United States is the most unequal economy of all high-income democracies, and Brazil is among the most unequal countries in the world.51”

• cites [51] Schaeffer K 6 facts about economic inequality in the U.S https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/ Feb 7, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Global hunger had been declining for decades but reversed in recent years, and the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this reversal.

“Decades of decline in hunger have reversed in recent years, and the pandemic has accelerated this worrying trend.93, 94”

• cites [93] UN Food and Agriculture Organization The state of food security and nutrition in the world, 2019 http://www.fao.org/3/ca5162en/ca5162en.pdf 2019Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites [94] UN Food and Agriculture Organization Keeping food and agricultural systems alive: analyses and solutions in response to COVID-19 http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/ca8822en/ 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The COVID-19 pandemic reveals and exacerbates pre-existing social, economic, and political inequalities, including inequalities of wealth, health, wellbeing, social protection, and access to basic goods and services.

“The COVID-19 pandemic both reveals and exacerbates pre-existing social, economic, and political inequalities,56 including inequalities of wealth, health, wellbeing, social protection, and access to basic goods and services (eg, food, health care, education).”

• cites [56] Myers J 5 things COVID-19 has taught us about inequality https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/08/5-things-covid-19-has-taught-us-about-inequality/ Aug 18, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Student accountability and engagement are considerable concerns in remote learning environments.

“Student accountability and engagement are considerable concerns in remote learning environments.”

May combine two claims.

Although men and women are infected with COVID-19 in similar proportions, men appear to be at greater risk of worse outcomes and death, independent of age.

“Although men and women are infected by COVID-19 to similar proportions, men appear to be more at risk for worse outcomes and death, independent of age.103”

• cites [103] Jin J-M Bai P He W Gender differences in patients with COVID-19: focus on severity and mortality Front Public Health 8 2020 152 32411652 PMC7201103Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

NPIs as a package have proven sufficient to keep R below 1 while enabling the economy to function at a moderate level, albeit with some closures and reduced travel.

“Taken as a whole, NPIs offer a package of measures that have proven sufficient to keep R below 1 while enabling the economy to function at a moderate level, albeit with the ongoing closure of some facilities and events and with reduced travel.”

May combine two claims.

In an urgent context, shutting non-essential workplaces causes a rapid decline in transmission and substantially reduces R.

“In such an urgent context, the shutdown of workplaces other than essential operations causes a rapid decline in transmission and brings R down substantially.”

• cites [42] Hsiang S Allen D Annan-Phan S The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic Nature 584 2020 262 267 32512578Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Low-income food-importing countries, especially in Africa, have been among the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, and poor people in those countries face rising food prices.

“Many low-income, food-importing countries, especially in Africa, have been hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the poor within those countries face rising food prices.95”

• cites [95] UN Food and Agriculture Organization Responding to COVID-19 food disruptions in Africa http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cb0551en 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam had recent experience with the SARS epidemic, and Uganda had extensive experience with the AIDS epidemic.

“Notable examples include Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam, which had some recent experience in dealing with the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic, and Uganda, which has had extensive experience with the AIDS epidemic.39, 40”

• cites [39] UN Sustainable Development Group Policy brief: the impact of COVID-19 on south-east Asia https://unsdg.un.org/resources/policy-brief-impact-covid-19-south-east-asia July 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites [40] Biryabarema E Uganda's tough approach curbs COVID, even as Africa nears 1 million cases https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-uganda-idUSKCN251159 Aug 5, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Schools provide food, safety, nurturance, sociality, cognitive development, and education.

“Schools provide food, safety, nurturance, sociality, cognitive development, and education, resources permitting.45”

• cites [45] UN Sustainable Development Group Policy brief: education during COVID-19 and beyond https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2020/08/sg_policy_brief_covid-19_and_education_august_2020.pdf August, 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Low testing and high transmission are mutually reinforcing: insufficient testing and tracing lead to high transmission, and high transmission overwhelms testing and tracing capacity.

“This low level of testing is both cause and effect. Insufficient testing and tracing lead to high disease transmission, and high transmission overwhelms the limited capacity of testing and tracing.”

May combine two claims.

Effective and timely implementation of NPIs avoids excessive burdens on hospitals and other health facilities and enables continuity in treatment of non-COVID-19 diseases.

“The effective and timely implementation of NPIs also avoids excessive burdens on hospitals and other health facilities, and it enables continuity in the treatment of non-COVID-19 diseases.”

May combine two claims.

A CDC study found that suicidal ideation and psychological distress were particularly high among essential care workers, Black and Hispanic respondents compared with non-Hispanic white respondents, and young people in the United States.

“A CDC study22 found that suicidal ideation and psychological distress is particularly high among essential care workers, Black and Hispanic respondents (compared to non-Hispanic white respondents), and young people in the United States.”

• cites [22] Czeisler MÉ Lane RI Petrosky E Mental health, substance use, and suicidal ideation during the COVID-19 pandemic—United States, June 24–30, 2020 MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 69 2020 1049 1057 32790653 PMC7440121 sourceNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Medical populism frustrates implementation of NPIs, stokes opposition to face masks, and breeds misinformation and rumour trafficking.

“Not only does medical populism frustrate the implementation of NPIs, but it also stokes opposition to simple measures such as wearing face masks, and it breeds misinformation and rumour trafficking.”

• cites [52] Lasco G Medical populism and the COVID-19 pandemic Glob Public Health 2020 published online Aug 11. 10.1080/17441692.2020.1807581 32780635Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Community health workers promote essential trust, local context, culturally sensitive interventions, and essential public health information for the community.

“Community health workers promote essential trust, local context, culturally sensitive interventions, and essential public health information for the community.”

May combine two claims.

Within airplane cabins, disease spread is limited by the environmental control system providing localised ventilation and high-efficiency filtration, though sporadic cases have been reported.

“Within the airplane cabin, disease spread is limited by the environmental control system on airplanes, which provide localised ventilation and high-efficiency filtration, although sporadic cases have been reported.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Community health workers are especially important for successful behavioural changes, for trust needed to implement NPIs, and for high uptake of effective vaccines.

“Community health workers are especially important for the successful implementation of behavioural changes in communities, for the trust needed to implement NPIs, and eventually for the high uptake of effective vaccines.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Many governments will benefit from borrowing costs that are at historical lows.

“Many governments will benefit from borrowing costs that are at historical lows.”

May combine two claims.

Although this approach will probably lead to sharp increases in public debt in many countries, fiscal retrenchment earlier than warranted would present an even greater risk of derailing the recovery and could ultimately be more costly.

“Although this approach will probably lead to sharp increases in public debt in many countries, fiscal retrenchment earlier than warranted would present an even greater risk of derailing the recovery, and could ultimately be more costly.117”

• cites [117] Gaspar V Gopinath G Fiscal policies for a transformed world https://blogs.imf.org/2020/07/10/fiscal-policies-for-a-transformed-world July 10, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The first vaccines are likely to be only partly effective and last for a limited duration, so transmission might continue even with increasing vaccine coverage.

“The first vaccines are likely to be only partly effective and last for a limited duration, such that transmission of disease might continue even with increasing vaccine coverage.”

May combine two claims.

Although vaccine candidates are likely to begin implementation during 2021, their introduction will not mark the end of the pandemic or the end of the crucial need for non-pharmaceutical interventions.

“We note that although vaccine candidates are likely to begin implementation during 2021, their introduction will not mark the end of the pandemic or the end of the crucial need for NPIs.”

May combine two claims.

The world will be afflicted by high and pervasive unemployment for years to come, putting hundreds of millions of individuals at risk of poverty, financial insecurity, hunger, and mental health problems, including clinical depression and anxiety disorders.

“The world will be afflicted by high and pervasive unemployment for years to come, putting hundreds of millions of individuals at risk of poverty, financial insecurity, hunger, and mental health problems, including clinical depression and anxiety disorders.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The new online world of work will also create new opportunities for skills and employment.

“Yet the new online world of work will also create new opportunities for skills and employment.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Many activities will have shifted permanently from the brick-and-mortar economy of offices, shops, schools, and clinics to the online world of working from home, e-commerce, e-education, and telemedicine.

“Many activities will have shifted permanently from the brick-and-mortar economy of offices, shops, schools, and clinics, to the online world of working from home, e-commerce, e-education, and telemedicine.”

May combine two claims.

Women make up 70% of the global health workforce, which puts them at greater risk of infection and stress from overworking.

“Women make up 70% of the global health workforce, putting them at greater risk of infection and stress from overworking.109”

• cites [109] Ghebreyesus TA Female health workers drive global health: we will drive gender-transformative change https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/female-health-workers-drive-global-health March 20, 2019Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The scientific community has produced accurate, trustworthy data and research through one of the most remarkable mobilisations in history, including a commitment to make more than 30,000 publications open access or freely available to the public.

“In general, the scientific community has produced accurate, trustworthy data and research through one of the most remarkable mobilisations in history, including a commitment to make more than 30 000 publications open access, or freely available to the public.139”

• cites [139] WHO Global research on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/global-research-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Vaccines might work for some subgroups of a population but not others.

“They might work for some subgroups of a population but not others.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

If the new digital economy is implemented justly and inclusively, there is an opportunity for more shared leisure time.

“If the new digital economy is implemented justly and inclusively, there is an opportunity for more shared leisure time.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Vaccines might pose differential risks to individuals according to age, gender, ethnicity, race, previous medical conditions, or other characteristics.

“They might pose differential risks to individuals according to age, gender, ethnicity, race, previous medical conditions, or other characteristics.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Vaccines might protect individuals against severe disease or death without preventing infection.

“They might protect individuals against severe disease or death without preventing infection.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Many of the hundreds of millions of jobs eliminated during the pandemic will not return.

“Many of the hundreds of millions of jobs that have been eliminated during the pandemic will not return.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The digital economy can be transformative, supporting not only decent jobs but also the green economy.

“The digital economy can be transformative, supporting not only decent jobs but also the green economy.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

On the basis of current trends, COVAX will not be sufficient.

“we emphasise that on the basis of current trends, COVAX will not be sufficient.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Many businesses will have closed.

“Many businesses will have closed.”

May combine two claims.

The EU green deal, long-term budget for 2021-27, and new recovery fund mark an exemplary framework for long-term recovery, including mid-century goals on climate safety, energy transition, and the circular economy, with a comprehensive €1.8 trillion budget.

“The EU green deal, long-term budget (2021–27), and new recovery fund marks an exemplary framework for long-term recovery, including mid-century goals on climate safety, energy transition, and the circular economy, together with a comprehensive €1·8 trillion budget.144”

• cites [144] European Council Special European Council https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2020/07/17-21/ 17–21 July 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

In 2020, the American anti-vaccine movement redoubled its efforts against COVID-19 vaccines and expanded to campaign against face masks and contact tracing, helping to promote the massive resurgence of COVID-19 in the southern United States that summer.

“In 2020, the American anti-vaccine movement redoubled its efforts against COVID-19 vaccines and expanded its remit to campaign against face masks and contact tracing, thereby helping to promote the massive resurgence of COVID-19 in the southern United States this summer.138”

• cites [138] Hotez PJ COVID-19 meets the antivaccine movement Microbes Infect 22 2020 162 164 32442682 PMC7235572Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Online connectivity supports testing and contact tracing, monitoring of the epidemic, and access to information and social support for individuals and families in need.

“Online connectivity supports testing and contact tracing, monitoring of the epidemic, and accessing information and social support for individuals and families in need.125”

• cites [125] Budd J Miller BS Manning EM Digital technologies in the public-health response to COVID-19 Nat Med 26 2020 1183 1192 32770165Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The first vaccines are likely to be only partially effective and therefore pose many complications and risks in their initial deployment.

“This is especially the case since the first vaccines are likely to be only partially effective, and therefore pose many complications and risks in their initial deployment.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The US federal government was projected to run a budget deficit of about $3.7 trillion in 2020, about 16% of GDP.

“The US federal government, for example, will run a budget deficit of around $3·7 trillion during 2020, about 16% of GDP.113”

• cites [113] US Congressional Budget Office CBO's current projections of output, employment, and interest rates and a preliminary look at federal deficits for 2020 and 2021 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335 April, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The World Bank Group is working to help countries boost health spending, strengthen social safety nets, and maintain public services and a thriving private sector.

“The World Bank Group is working to help countries to boost health spending, strengthen social safety nets, and maintain both public services and a thriving private sector.122”

• cites [122] The World Bank World Bank Group President David Malpass: remarks at high-level event on financing for development in the era of COVID-19 and beyond https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2020/05/28/world-bank-group-president-david-malpass-remarks-at-high-level-event-on-financing-for-development-in-the-era-of-covid-19-and-beyond May 28, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

Public investment will be an important element for sustained global economic growth in the coming years, providing an opportunity to accelerate transformation towards sustainable and inclusive growth.

“An important element for sustained global economic growth in the coming years will therefore be public investment, which provides an opportunity to accelerate the transformation of societies towards sustainable and inclusive growth.”

May combine two claims.

Russia introduced a new vaccine candidate without completing phase 3 trials for efficacy and safety and without publishing supportive data.

“In this regard, we are concerned by the introduction in Russia of a new vaccine candidate without the completion of phase 3 trials for efficacy and safety, and without the publication of supportive data.132”

• cites [132] Mahase E Covid-19: Russia approves vaccine without large scale testing or published results BMJ 370 2020 m3205 32816758Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Public investments in infrastructure will provide major support for private investments in new sustainable sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and the digital economy.

“In turn, public investments in infrastructure, for example, will provide major support for private investments in new sustainable sectors, such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and the digital economy.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

In many parts of the world, including Europe, Japan, and the United States, central banks have little leeway with interest rates at zero or even negative.

“In many parts of the world, including Europe, Japan, and the United States, central banks do not have much leeway with interest rates at zero or even negative.”

May combine two claims.

The long-term effects of this crisis will particularly affect young people, who are more likely to be unemployed and working in informal jobs.

“The long-term effects of this crisis will particularly affect young people,141 who are more likely to be unemployed and working in informal jobs.24”

• cites [141] Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Youth and COVID-19: response, recovery and resilience http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/youth-and-covid-19-response-recovery-and-resilience-c40e61c6/ June 11, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites [24] International Labour Organization ILO monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Fourth edition: updated estimates and analysis https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_745963.pdf May 27, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Vaccine nationalism, in which individual nations tie up intended supplies of future vaccines for their own use, is counterproductive because no one nation is safe until all are.

“So-called vaccine nationalism,136 in which individual nations tie up the intended supplies of future vaccines for their own use, is counterproductive because no one nation is safe until all are.”

• cites [136] Kupferschmidt K ‘Vaccine nationalism’ threatens global plan to distribute COVID-19 shots fairly https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/vaccine-nationalism-threatens-global-plan-distribute-covid-19-shots-fairly July 28, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

For many countries, a temporary delay of payments will be insufficient to overcome the crisis and restore debt sustainability, so some permanent debt forgiveness will be needed.

“Further, for many countries, a temporary delay of payments will be insufficient to overcome this crisis and restore debt sustainability, so that some measure of permanent debt forgiveness will be needed.”

May combine two claims.

Countries announced more than $11 trillion in fiscal measures to combat the COVID-19 emergency, but most of these announcements were in high-income or middle-income emerging economies.

“Although countries have announced more than $11 trillion in fiscal measures (half of which consists of additional spending or revenue-reducing measures, and the other half consists of loans, guarantees, or equity injections by the public sector) to combat the COVID-19 emergency, most of these announcements have been in high-income or middle-income emerging economies.117”

• cites [117] Gaspar V Gopinath G Fiscal policies for a transformed world https://blogs.imf.org/2020/07/10/fiscal-policies-for-a-transformed-world July 10, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Uncertainty affects consumption and private investment.

“Uncertainty affects consumption and private investment.”

May combine two claims.

The IMF's rapid credit facility for low-income countries has a 10-year maturity, zero interest rate, and 5.5-year grace period, while the rapid financing instrument for other countries must be repaid within 3.25-5 years.

“The IMF's rapid credit facility (for low-income countries) has a 10-year maturity, zero interest rate, and 5·5-year grace period,119 whereas the IMF's rapid financing instrument (for other countries) must be repaid within 3·25–5 years.120”

• cites [119] International Monetary Fund IMF rapid credit facility (RCF) https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/02/21/08/Rapid-Credit-Facility April 9, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites [120] International Monetary Fund The IMF's rapid financing instrument (RFI) https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/02/19/55/Rapid-Financing-Instrument April 9, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Other multilateral development banks committed to adding another $80 billion to their response, bringing the total to $240 billion.

“Other multilateral development banks have committed to adding another $80 billion to their response, bringing the total to $240 billion.122, 123”

• cites [122] The World Bank World Bank Group President David Malpass: remarks at high-level event on financing for development in the era of COVID-19 and beyond https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2020/05/28/world-bank-group-president-david-malpass-remarks-at-high-level-event-on-financing-for-development-in-the-era-of-covid-19-and-beyond May 28, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites [123] The World Bank Amid multiple crises, World Bank Group refocuses programs and increases financing to $74 billion in fiscal year 2020 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/07/10/amid-multiple-crises-world-bank-group-refocuses-programs-and-increases-financing-to-74-billion-in-fiscal-year-2020 July 10, 2020Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Aggregate demand, income, and trade will remain disrupted in the medium term, the next 12-24 months.

“Aggregate demand income and trade will remain disrupted in the medium term (ie, the next 12–24 months).”

May combine two claims.

Vaccines might have efficacy of varying duration and require repeated boosters.

“They might have efficacy of varying duration and require repeated boosters.”

May combine two claims.

During that time, the pandemic will continue, as will the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions.

“During that time, the pandemic will continue, as will the need for NPIs.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

This technology is essential for short-term responses, but it has important implications for privacy and human rights and potentially dire consequences for freedom of speech and movement if extreme measures remain in place long term or are used for purposes other than suppressing COVID-19.

“This technology is essential for short-term responses,125 but it has important implications for privacy and human rights, and potentially dire consequences for freedom of speech and movement if these extreme measures were to remain in place in the long term and if they were used to track people for purposes other than suppressing COVID-19.”

• cites [125] Budd J Miller BS Manning EM Digital technologies in the public-health response to COVID-19 Nat Med 26 2020 1183 1192 32770165Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

LMICs may be particularly vulnerable to the crisis depending on their economic structure and dependence on external flows such as remittances.

“Depending on the structure of their economies and their dependence on external flows (such as remittances), LMICs might be particularly vulnerable to the crisis.”

May combine two claims.

Before the pandemic, reinvigoration of the UN multilateral system was already widely discussed, but the COVID-19 pandemic raised scrutiny on the effectiveness of multilateral organisations.

“Before the pandemic, the reinvigoration of the UN multilateral system was already being widely discussed, but the COVID-19 pandemic has raised scrutiny on the effectiveness of multilateral organisations.147”

• cites [147] UN Speakers call for reinvigorated multilateralism, stronger diplomacy to address global crises, as General Assembly marks International Day https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/ga12140.doc.htm April 24, 2019Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Global recovery will be greatly facilitated by cooperation at the regional and international levels, not only in controlling the epidemic but also in designing and adopting new green recovery programmes.

“Global recovery will be greatly facilitated by cooperation at the regional and international levels, not only in controlling the epidemic, but also in designing and adopting new green recovery programmes.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Modernising energy systems can contribute to job creation and economic growth while also protecting the climate, but this requires public sector leadership and investment.

“Conversely, modernising energy systems can contribute to job creation and economic growth while also protecting the climate, but this requires public sector leadership and investment.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Trade and financial sanctions, other isolationist policies, and talk of a new cold war between the United States and China are deeply dangerous hindrances to global recovery and to peace itself.

“Trade and financial sanctions, other isolationist policies, and talk of a new cold war between the United States and China are deeply dangerous hindrances to global recovery and to peace itself.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The COVID-19 pandemic hit during the 75th anniversary year of the UN.

“The COVID-19 pandemic hit during the 75th anniversary year of the UN.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The indispensable role of the UN has been evident throughout the pandemic, especially for the world's most vulnerable populations, yet the UN system has come under attack from populist politicians and international law has been undermined.

“The indispensable role of the UN has been evident throughout the course of the pandemic, especially for the world's most vulnerable populations, and yet the UN system has come under attack from populist politicians, and international law has been undermined.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Regional integration has enormous potential and benefits, from the possibility of regional debt relief negotiations to procurement agreements on equipment, tests, treatments, and vaccines.

“Regional integration has enormous potential and benefits, from the possibility of regional debt relief negotiations to procurement agreements on equipment, tests, treatments, and vaccines.”