Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda

Loevinsohn, M.E.

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(94)91586-5

Cited by 308Malaria Research and ControlClimate Change and Health ImpactsMosquito-borne diseases and control

Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda

Loevinsohn, M.E.·1994·The Lancet

DOI 10.1016/s0140-6736(94)91586-5

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Abstract

Global climatic change is expected to increase the incidence of vector-borne diseases, especially malaria. This study assessed the contribution of climate to a malaria epidemic in Rwanda, focusing on the catchment area of one health centre where diagnosis was consistent and non-climatic variables well monitored. In late 1987 malaria incidence in the area increased by 337% over the 3 previous years. The increase was greatest in groups with little acquired immunity--children under 2 years (564%) and people in high-altitude areas (501%). Case-fatality rose significantly (relative risk = 4.85, p < 0.001). 1987 also saw record high temperatures and rainfall. An autoregressive equation including lagged effects of these two variables explained 80% of the variance in monthly malaria incidence. Temperature (especially mean minimum) predicted incidence best at higher altitudes where malaria had increased most. Empirically derived relations were consistent with the estimated generation time of the disease and with the known sensitivity of the plasmodium parasite to temperature. The patterns of climatic warming between day and night and among seasons will be critical to the effect on malaria. These findings are most relevant to regions near the altitude or latitude limits of the disease, where several epidemics have lately been reported.

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Studies in East Africa have shown that rainfall significantly correlates with malaria transmission with a lag time of 1-2 months.
“Studies in East Africa have shown that rainfall significantly correlates with malaria transmission with a lag time of 1–2 months (Loevinsohn, 1994; Zhou et al., 2004).”
From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as Loevinsohn, 1994

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Authors: Loevinsohn, M. E.
Affiliations: University of Rwanda (RW)
Corresponding author: Loevinsohn, M.E.
Venue: The Lancet
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 1994-03
Volume: 343
Issue: 8899
Pages: 714-718
ISSN: 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
0140-6736
DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(94)91586-5
OpenAlex: W2155865951
Cited by: 308
References: 10
Citations by year: 2026: 4 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 22 · 2012: 16
FWCI: 12.84
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: The Lancet (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
Keywords: malaria incidence, climate change, global warming, rainfall, malaria epidemic, case fatality, children under 2 years, high altitude
MeSH terms: Altitude, Catchment Area, Health, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Hot Temperature, Humans, Infant, Rain, Rwanda, Seasons, Malaria, Falciparum

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Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda

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