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Global mortality, disability, and the contribution of risk factors: Global Burden of Disease Study
Abstract
Background Prevention and control of disease and injury require information about the leading medical causes of illness and exposures or risk factors. The assessment of the public-health importance of these has been hampered by the lack of common methods to investigate the overall, worldwide burden. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) provides a standardised approach to epidemiological assessment and uses a standard unit, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), to aid comparisons.Methods DALYs for each age-sex group in each GBD region for 107 disorders were calculated, based on the estimates of mortality by cause, incidence, average age of onset, duration, and disability severity. Estimates of the burden and prevalence of exposure in different regions of disorders attributable to malnutrition, poor water supply, sanitation and personal and domestic hygiene, unsafe sex, tobacco use, alcohol, occupation, hypertension, physical inactivity, use of illicit drugs, and air pollution were developed.Findings Developed regions account for 11.6% of the worldwide burden from all causes of death and disability, and account for 90.2% of health expenditure worldwide. Communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders explain 43.9%; non-communicable causes 40.9%; injuries 15.1%; malignant neoplasms 5.1%; neuropsychiatric conditions 10.5%; and cardiovascular conditions 9.7% of DALYs worldwide. The ten leading specific causes of global DALYs are, in descending order, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, perinatal disorders, unipolar major depression, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, tuberculosis, measles, road-traffic accidents, and congenital anomalies. 15.9% of DALYs worldwide are attributable to childhood malnutrition and 6.8% to poor water, and sanitation and personal and domestic hygiene.Interpretation The three leading contributors to the burden of disease are communicable and perinatal disorders affecting children. The substantial burdens of neuropsychiatric disorders and injuries are under-recognised. The epidemiological transition in terms of DALYs has progressed substantially in China, Latin America and the Caribbean, other Asia and islands, and the middle eastern crescent. If the burdens of disability and death are taken into account, our list differs substantially from other lists of the leading causes of death. DALYs provide a common metric to aid meaningful comparison of the burden of risk factors, diseases, and injuries.
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“the comparative risk assessment approach, a framework used by GBD since 2002 that is predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially overlapping health risks.29, 37”
In the citing paper
“Estimates of the attributable burden of smoking tobacco use have been included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) since its initial publication in 1997.”
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“In the 1990 GBD study, no specific data for AF was reported, but cardiovascular diseases as a group accounted for 9·7% of the global DALYs with ischemic heart disease being the fifth ranking disorder in total number of DALYS (~47x106) behind lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, perinatal disorders, and unipolar major depression.34”
From Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (2014) · cites this paper as [34]
In the citing paper
“In the 1990 GBD study, no specific data for AF was reported, but cardiovascular diseases as a group accounted for 9·7% of the global DALYs with ischemic heart disease being the fifth ranking disorder in total number of DALYS (~47x106) behind lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, perinatal disorders, and unipolar major depression.34”
From Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (2014) · cites this paper as [34]
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“Groups I, II, and III refer to the Global Burden of Disease cause groupings. Group I is communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders; Group II is noncommunicable diseases; Group III is injuries l”
BackgroundSelf-citationIncome, education, and blood pressure in adults in Jamaica, a middle-income developing country
Méndez, M. A., Cooper, R., Wilks, R., Luke, A., & Forrester, T. (2003) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyg083 · Cited by 99
Polatajko, H. J., McEwen, S. E., Ryan, J. D., & Baum, C. M. (2011) · American Journal of Occupational Therapy · doi:10.5014/ajot.2012.001784 · Cited by 104
“S troke is the most serious disabling condition in the United States and the developed world (Lopez, Mathers, Ezzati, Jamison, & Murray, 2006; Murray & Lopez, 1997).”
Compulsory schooling, education, depression and memory: New evidence from SHARELIFE
Crespo, L., Noval, B. L., & Mira, P. (2014) · Economics of Education Review · doi:10.1016/j.econedurev.2014.09.003 · Cited by 104
Fleck, M. P. D. A., Berlim, M. T., Lafer, B., Sougey, É. B., Porto, J. A. D., Brasil, M. A. A., Juruena, M. F., & Hetem, L. A. (2009) · Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1590/s1516-44462009000500003 · Cited by 101
EXPLORING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
Mason, G. (2014) · University Libraries (University of Maryland) · doi:10.13016/m2n30k · Cited by 99
Kari, J. T., Pehkonen, J., Hirvensalo, M. H., Yang, X., Hutri‐Kähönen, N., Raitakari, O. T., & Tammelin, T. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0135651 · Cited by 117
“The detrimental health consequences of physical inactivity are well-established [1–6].”
BackgroundDiretrizes da Associação Médica Brasileira para o tratamento da depressão (versão integral)
Fleck, M. P. D. A., Lafer, B., Sougey, É. B., Porto, J. A. D., Brasil, M. A. A., & Juruena, M. F. (2003) · Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1590/s1516-44462003000200013 · Cited by 97
Epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases in Europe
Kromhout, D. (2001) · Public Health Nutrition · doi:10.1079/phn2001133 · Cited by 99
Reduced protein synthesis in schizophrenia patient-derived olfactory cells
English, J. A., Fan, Y., Föcking, M., Lopez, L. M., Hryniewiecka, M., Wynne, K. J., Dicker, P., Matigian, N., Cagney, G., Mackay‐Sim, A., et al. (2015) · Translational Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/tp.2015.119 · Cited by 97
Thrasher, J. F., Arillo‐Santillán, E., Villalobos, V., Pérez-Hernández, R., Hammond, D. G., Carter, J. W., Sebrié, E. M., Sansores, R. H., & Regalado-Piñeda, J. (2012) · Cancer Causes & Control · doi:10.1007/s10552-012-9899-8 · Cited by 96
“Low and middle-income countries face a growing morbidity and mortality burden from tobacco-attributable disease [9].”
Salminen, J. K., Karlsson, H., Hietala, J. A., Kajander, J., Aalto, S., Markkula, J., Rasi-Hakala, H., & Toikka, T. (2008) · Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics · doi:10.1159/000151388 · Cited by 96
“Functional ability is an important outcome aspect in depression studies, since major depression is one of the main reasons causing sickness absenteeism or work disability [”
BackgroundPalliative Care for People with Severe Persistent Mental Illness: A Review of the Literature
Woods, A., Willison, K. B., Kington, C., & Gavin, A. (2008) · The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1177/070674370805301104 · Cited by 96
“When alcohol and substance abuse are included in a definition of mental illness, it eclipses cardiovascular disease.(10)”
BackgroundBacteria as DNA vaccine carriers for genetic immunization
Schoen, C. U., Stritzker, J., Goebel, W., & Pilgrim, S. (2004) · International Journal of Medical Microbiology · doi:10.1016/j.ijmm.2004.03.001 · Cited by 96
Tablas de evaluación del riesgo coronario adaptadas a la población española. Estudio DORICA
Bartrina, J. A., Pérez‐Rodrigo, C., Foz, M., Mantilla, T., Serra‐Majem, L., Moreno, B., Monereo, S., Millán, J., & fase, G. C. P. E. E. D., II (2004) · Medicina Clínica · doi:10.1016/s0025-7753(04)75331-2 · Cited by 100
Respiratory tract infections in children in developing countries
Cashat-Cruz, M., Morales-Aguirre, J. J., & Mendoza-Azpiri, M. (2005) · Seminars in Pediatric Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1053/j.spid.2005.12.005 · Cited by 96
Platelet glycoprotein Ibα Kozak polymorphism is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke
Baker, R. I., Eikelboom, J. W., Lofthouse, E., Staples, N., Afshar‐Kharghan, V., López, J. A., Shen, Y., Berndt, M. C., & Hankey, G. J. (2001) · Blood · doi:10.1182/blood.v98.1.36 · Cited by 96
“(2) Small-artery disease included ischemic stroke with (a) consciousness and higher cerebral function maintained; (b) one of the classical lacunar syndromes (ie, pure motor hemiparesis, pure hemisensory loss, pure hemisensory-motor loss, or ataxic hemiparesis) or nonlacunar small-artery clinical syndromes (eg, basilar…”
BackgroundNeutrophil elastase inhibitors as treatment for COPD
Ohbayashi, H. (2002) · Expert Opinion on Investigational Drugs · doi:10.1517/13543784.11.7.965 · Cited by 96
“In 1990, COPD was ranked twelfth as a cause of disability-adjusted life years lost worldwide [2,3] but it is predicted to rise to fifth by 2020 [4].”
BackgroundManaging depression in primary care: another example of the inverse care law?
Chew-Graham, C. A. (2002) · Family Practice · doi:10.1093/fampra/19.6.632 · Cited by 96
A neuropathological study of vascular factors in late-life depression
Thomas, A. J. (2001) · Journal of Neurology Neurosurgery & Psychiatry · doi:10.1136/jnnp.70.1.83 · Cited by 93
“Our finding of increased atheroma in the large and medium sized vessels in late-life depression merits further study. If confirmed it will indicate that people with depression later in life should be screened for atheromatous disease as a factor perpetuating their depression as well as predisposing them to other vascu…”
BackgroundThe cost-effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce sodium intake
Wang, G., & Labarthe, D. R. (2011) · Journal of Hypertension · doi:10.1097/hjh.0b013e328349ba18 · Cited by 96
“High blood pressure, the leading risk factor for mortality worldwide, contributes to a substantial number of premature deaths and acts to increase the incidence of a variety of cardiovascular and renal diseases, including stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and kidney failure [1–4].”
Hardeveld, F., Spijker, J., De Graaf, R., Hendriks, S. M., Licht, C. M. M., Nolen, W. A., Penninx, B. W. J. H., & Beekman, A. T. F. (2013) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2012.11.008 · Cited by 95
“This is largely due to its highly chronic and recurrent nature (Murray and Lopez, 1997; Vos et al., 2004).”
BackgroundAssessment and treatment of mood disorders in the context of substance abuse
Tolliver, B. K., & Anton, R. F. (2015) · Dialogues in Clinical Neuroscience · doi:10.31887/dcns.2015.17.2/btolliver · Cited by 105
Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation in Clinical Psychiatry
Belmaker, R. H. (2006) · American Psychiatric Association Publishing eBooks · doi:10.1176/appi.books.9781615377510 · Cited by 96
Dandona, R. (2000) · British Journal of Ophthalmology · doi:10.1136/bjo.84.1.22 · Cited by 95
“Understanding the utilisation of eyecare services is significant because there is considerable burden of disability adjusted life years as a result of the major eye diseases.”
BackgroundOvercrowding in Hospital Wards as a Predictor of Antidepressant Treatment Among Hospital Staff
Virtanen, M., Pentti, J., Vahtera, J., Ferrie, J. E., Stansfeld, S. A., Helenius, H. Y. M., Elovainio, M. J., Honkonen, T., Terho, K., Oksanen, T., et al. (2008) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2008.07121929 · Cited by 95
“Depression is a serious problem worldwide in terms of human suffering, disability, mortality, and productivity (23, 26).”
BackgroundTodd, N. J., Jones, S. H., Hart, A., & Lobban, F. A. (2014) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2014.07.027 · Cited by 100
“Although BD is ranked by the World Health Organisation as one of the sixth most debilitating conditions (Murray and Lopez, 1997), outcome is highly variable and there are those who experience long periods of stability (Michalak et al.”
BackgroundHuang, Z., Dong, W., Duan, H., & Liu, J. (2017) · IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering · doi:10.1109/tbme.2017.2731158 · Cited by 94
Menchón, J. M., Real, E., Alonso, P., Aparicio, M. A., Segalàs, C., Plans, G., Luyten, L., Brunfaut, E., Matthijs, L., Raymaekers, S., et al. (2019) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41380-019-0562-6 · Cited by 95
2-Hydroxy-N-arylbenzenesulfonamides as ATP-citrate lyase inhibitors
Li, J. J., Wang, H., Tino, J. A., Robl, J. A., Herpin, T. F., Lawrence, R. M., Biller, S. A., Jamil, H., Ponticiello, R., Chen, L., et al. (2007) · Bioorganic & Medicinal Chemistry Letters · doi:10.1016/j.bmcl.2007.03.017 · Cited by 94
Metadata
- Authors
- Murray, C. J., & Lopez, A. D.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Murray, Christopher JL
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1997-05
- Volume
- 349
- Issue
- 9063
- Pages
- 1436-1442
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W2019823288
- Cited by
- 4,492
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 51 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 94 · 2023: 94 · 2022: 141 · 2021: 111 · 2020: 117 · 2019: 131 · 2018: 147 · 2017: 155 · 2016: 188 · 2015: 206 · 2014: 238 · 2013: 242 · 2012: 245
- FWCI
- 190.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DigitalGeorgetown (Georgetown University Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- global burden of disease, disability-adjusted life years, mortality, risk factors, infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, injuries, child malnutrition, water, sanitation and hygiene, tobacco use, alcohol consumption, hypertension, physical inactivity, illicit drug use, air pollution, epidemiological transition, neuropsychiatric disorders, cardiovascular disease, traffic accidents, congenital malformations, perinatal disorders, lower respiratory tract infection, diarrhoeal diseases
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Alcohol Drinking, Developing Countries, Diarrhea, Health Expenditures, Female, Persons with Disabilities, Disabled Persons, Humans, Hypertension, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Mortality, Nutrition Disorders, Respiratory Tract Diseases, Risk Factors, Sanitation, Sexual Behavior, Smoking, Global Health, Wounds and Injuries, Developed Countries, Quality-Adjusted Life Years
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