The DOI matches its Crossref record; 14 of the 14 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Forecasting the outcomes of sports matches against the spread has been elusive for both experts and models [6, 36].”
From A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting (2023) · cites this paper as [6]
In the citing paper
“Boulier and Stekler (2003) compare the predictive performance of power rankings and media experts to the betting market for NFL games and found that the betting market is the best for predicting winners.”
From Big ideas in sports analytics and statistical tools for their investigation (2023) · cites this paper as Boulier and Stekler (2003)
Citations
Cites
The Economics of Wagering Markets
Sauer, R. D. (1998) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 368
Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis
Bunn, D. W., & Wright, G. (1991) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.37.5.501 · Cited by 188
Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting
Avery, C. N., & Chevalier, J. A. (1999) · The Journal of Business · doi:10.1086/209625 · Cited by 159
Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results
Winkler, R. L. (1971) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482329 · Cited by 137
Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters
Forrest, D., & Simmons, R. M. (2000) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(00)00050-9 · Cited by 124
A State-Space Model for National Football League Scores
Glickman, M. E., & Stern, H. S. (1998) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1998.10474084 · Cited by 121
Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games
Gandar, J. M., Dare, W. H., Brown, C. R., & Zuber, R. A. (1998) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.155346 · Cited by 111
Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation
Boulier, B. L., & Stekler, H. O. (1999) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00067-3 · Cited by 110
Self-citationVergin, R. C., & Sosik, J. J. (1999) · Journal of Economics and Business · doi:10.1016/s0148-6195(98)00025-3 · Cited by 71
Robust Sports Ratings Based on Least Absolute Errors
Bassett, G. W. (1997) · The American Statistician · doi:10.1080/00031305.1997.10473938 · Cited by 36
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–120 of 120
Predicting Outcomes of Association Football Matches Based on Individual Players' Performance
Linde, J. B., & Løkketangen, M. (2014) · BIBSYS Brage (BIBSYS (Norway)) · Cited by 1
Barajas, Á. (2004) · Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich) · Cited by 1
STATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC TESTS OF EFFICIENCY IN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SOCCER BETTING MARKET
Brycki, J. (2009) · The Sydney eScholarship Repository (The University of Sydney)
The relevance of group expertise for the accuracy of a prediction market
Almeida, D. (2010)
UM OUTRO OLHAR SOBRE A EFICIÊNCIA DOS MERCADOS: O CASO DAS BOLSAS DE APOSTAS DE TÊNIS
Lob�ão, J., & ROLLA, N. M. (2015) · Revista de Administração de Empresas · doi:10.1590/s0034-759020150406
The application of regression based normative profiling for international male Taekwondo performance
Milligan, M. (2014) · ChesterRep (University of Chester)
The Effect of Team Record on Fan Loyalty in the National Football League
Mani, R., & Dubey, V. K. (2015) · International Conference on Sport Sciences Research and Technology Support (icSPORTS) · doi:10.5220/0005631302570262
Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World CupPreprint
Jain, K., Bearden, J. N., & Filipowicz, A. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal
A Study of Influential Statistics Associated with Success in the National Football League
Roith, J. (2015) · NDSU Repository (North Dakota State University)
A plausible Decision Heuristics Model: Fallibility of human judgment as an endogenous problemPreprint
Sáenz‐Royo, C. (2017) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
MODELING NFL FOOTBALL OUTCOMES
Magel, R. C., & Roith, J. (2023) · International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics · doi:10.53555/eijms.v3i2.12
Developing a Forecast-Based Optimization Model for Fantasy Premier League
Kristiansen, B. K., Gupta, A., & Eilertsen, W. (2018) · NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives
Predicting NFL football games based on simulation and modeling.
Roith, J., & Magel, R. C. (2018) · SOPHIA (St. Catherine University)
Implications of Belief Distribution and Loss Aversion for Betting Market AnomaliesPreprint
Yu, D., Gao, J., & Wang, T. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3718205
Bar‐Eli, M., Plessner, H., & Raab, M. (2011) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119977032.refs
Forrest, D., & Simmons, R. (2006) · Significance · doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2006.00146.x
Goal-Oriented Classification of Football Results
Głowania, S., Kozák, J. T., & Juszczuk, P. (2023) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-41456-5_59
Machine Learning and Multivariate Statistical Tools for Football Analytics
Selma, M. D. P. M. (2023) · doi:10.4995/thesis/10251/197630
NFL Data Analytics and Predictions Using Machine Learning
Husowitz, B. C., Mixer, M., & Morrow, S. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-93954-0_22-1
Relative Advantage: Quantifying Performance in Noisy Competitive SettingsPreprint
Brown, M. R., Scott, G. A., & Kilduff, L. P. (2025) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-6428535/v1
Metadata
- Authors
- Boulier, B. L., & Stekler, H. O.
- Affiliations
- George Washington University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Boulier, Bryan L.
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2003-04
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 257-270
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2092143264
- Cited by
- 120
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 6.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Sports Performance and Training
- Keywords
- National Football League, team ranking, betting markets, probit model, sports prediction, expert forecasts, bootstrapping
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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