The DOI matches its Crossref record; 14 of the 14 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Forecasting the outcomes of sports matches against the spread has been elusive for both experts and models [6, 36].”
From A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting (2023) · cites this paper as [6]
In the citing paper
“Boulier and Stekler (2003) compare the predictive performance of power rankings and media experts to the betting market for NFL games and found that the betting market is the best for predicting winners.”
From Big ideas in sports analytics and statistical tools for their investigation (2023) · cites this paper as Boulier and Stekler (2003)
Citations
Cites
The Economics of Wagering Markets
Sauer, R. D. (1998) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 368
Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis
Bunn, D. W., & Wright, G. (1991) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.37.5.501 · Cited by 188
Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting
Avery, C. N., & Chevalier, J. A. (1999) · The Journal of Business · doi:10.1086/209625 · Cited by 159
Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results
Winkler, R. L. (1971) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482329 · Cited by 137
Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters
Forrest, D., & Simmons, R. M. (2000) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(00)00050-9 · Cited by 124
A State-Space Model for National Football League Scores
Glickman, M. E., & Stern, H. S. (1998) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1998.10474084 · Cited by 121
Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games
Gandar, J. M., Dare, W. H., Brown, C. R., & Zuber, R. A. (1998) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.155346 · Cited by 111
Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation
Boulier, B. L., & Stekler, H. O. (1999) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00067-3 · Cited by 110
Self-citationVergin, R. C., & Sosik, J. J. (1999) · Journal of Economics and Business · doi:10.1016/s0148-6195(98)00025-3 · Cited by 71
Robust Sports Ratings Based on Least Absolute Errors
Bassett, G. W. (1997) · The American Statistician · doi:10.1080/00031305.1997.10473938 · Cited by 36
A State-Space Model for National Football League Scores
Glickman, M. E., & Stern, H. S. (1998) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2669599 · Cited by 21
Multivariate Classification Rules: Calibration and Discrimination
Schmid, C. H., & Griffith, J. L. (2014) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781118445112.stat05650 · Cited by 16
VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY
BRIER, G. W. (1950) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
BRIER, G. W. (1950) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078%3c0001:vofeit%3e2.0.co;2 · cited 5×
“Brier Score (Brier, 1950; Schmid & Griffith, 1998), A probit statistical model is a statistical modelwhich will also be used in our subsequent analyses. relating the probability of the occurrence of discreteThe Brier Score, which is specifically designed to random events (Y ), which take 0, 1 values such asevaluate pr…”
MethodInfluential
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Gentzkow, M., & Shapiro, J. M. (2006) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/499414 · Cited by 1,274
Gentzkow, M. A., & Shapiro, J. M. (2005) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w11664 · Cited by 631
Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football
Hvattum, L. M., & Arntzen, H. (2010) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.10.002 · Cited by 288
Odds setters as forecasters: the case of English football
Forrest, D., Goddard, J., & Simmons, R. (2005) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.03.003 · Cited by 245
Performance in Team Sports: Identifying the Keys to Success in Soccer
Lago‐Ballesteros, J., & Lago‐Peñas, C. (2010) · Journal of Human Kinetics · doi:10.2478/v10078-010-0035-0 · Cited by 182
Metadata
- Authors
- Boulier, B. L., & Stekler, H. O.
- Affiliations
- George Washington University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Boulier, Bryan L.
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2003-04
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 257-270
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2092143264
- Cited by
- 120
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 6.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Sports Performance and Training
- Keywords
- National Football League, team ranking, betting markets, probit model, sports prediction, expert forecasts, bootstrapping
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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