Rethinking the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Background Studies of cumulative HIV incidence suggest that co-factors such as genital ulcer disease (GUD), HIV disease stage, and circumcision influence HIV transmission; however, the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 is commonly cited as a fixed value (∼0·001, or 1 transmission per thousand contacts). We sought to estimate transmission co-factor effects on the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 and to quantify the extent to which study methods have affected infectivity estimates. Methods We conducted a systematic search (through April 2008) of PubMed, Web of Science, and relevant bibliographies to identify articles estimating the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1. We used meta-regression and stratified random-effects meta-analysis to assess differences in infectivity by co-factors and study methods. Findings Infectivity estimates were extremely heterogeneous, ranging from zero transmissions after more than 100 penile-vaginal contacts in some sero-discordant couples to one transmission for every 3·1 episodes of heterosexual anal intercourse. Estimates were only weakly associated with study methods. Infectivity differences (95% confidence intervals), expressed as number of transmissions per 1000 contacts, were 8 (0-16) comparing uncircumcised to circumcised male susceptibles, 6 (3-9) comparing susceptible individuals with and without GUD, 2 (1-3) comparing late-stage to mid-stage index cases, and 3 (0-5) comparing early-stage to mid-stage index cases. Interpretation A single value for the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 fails to reflect the variation associated with important co-factors. The commonly cited value of ∼0·001 was estimated among stable couples with low prevalences of high-risk co-factors, and represents a lower bound. Co-factor effects are important to include in epidemic models, policy considerations, and prevention messages.