Guidance on interim analysis methods in clinical trials
Open accessAbstract
Interim analyses in clinical trials can take on a multitude of forms. They are often used to guide Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) recommendations to study teams regarding recruitment targets for large, later-phase clinical trials. As collaborative biostatisticians working and teaching in multiple fields of research and across a broad array of trial phases, we note the large heterogeneity and confusion surrounding interim analyses in clinical trials. Thus, in this paper, we aim to provide a general overview and guidance on interim analyses for a nonstatistical audience. We explain each of the following types of interim analyses: efficacy, futility, safety, and sample size re-estimation, and we provide the reader with reasoning, examples, and implications for each. We emphasize that while the types of interim analyses employed may differ depending on the nature of the study, we would always recommend prespecification of the interim analytic plan to the extent possible with risk mitigation and trial integrity remaining a priority. Finally, we posit that interim analyses should be used as tools to help the DSMB make informed decisions in the context of the overarching study. They should generally not be deemed binding, and they should not be reviewed in isolation.
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The results of interim analyses, along with non-statistical criteria, can be part of a stopping guideline that helps inform whether the trial should be continued, modified, or halted earlier than intended for benefit, harm, or futility.
“The results of these analyses, along with non-statistical criteria, can be part of a stopping guideline that helps inform whether the trial should be continued, modified, or halted earlier than intended for benefit, harm, or futility.457”
From SPIRIT 2025 explanation and elaboration: updated guideline for protocols of randomised trials (2025) · cites this paper as [457]
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SPIRIT 2025 explanation and elaboration: updated guideline for protocols of randomised trials
Hróbjartsson, A., Boutron, I., Hopewell, S., Moher, D., Schulz, K. F., Collins, G. S., Tunn, R., Aggarwal, R., Berkwits, M., Berlin, J. A., et al. (2025) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj-2024-081660 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
- Authors
- Ciolino, J. D., Kaizer, A. M., & Bonner, L. B.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- Colorado School of Public Health (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ciolino, Jody D.
- Venue
- Journal of Clinical and Translational Science
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2023
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- e124-e124
- ISSN
- 2059-8661 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10260346
- OpenAlex
- W4376613003
- Cited by
- 66
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 20
- FWCI
- 2.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Clinical and Translational Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (UL1TR001422)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HL151754, K01HL151754)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- interim analysis, clinical trials, data safety monitoring board, futility analysis, safety analysis, sample size re-estimation, trial integrity, risk mitigation
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