Methods for Summarizing Radiocarbon Datasets
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Abstract Bayesian models have proved very powerful in analyzing large datasets of radiocarbon ( 14 C) measurements from specific sites and in regional cultural or political models. These models require the prior for the underlying processes that are being described to be defined, including the distribution of underlying events. Chronological information is also incorporated into Bayesian models used in DNA research, with the use of Skyline plots to show demographic trends. Despite these advances, there remain difficulties in assessing whether data conform to the assumed underlying models, and in dealing with the type of artifacts seen in Sum plots. In addition, existing methods are not applicable for situations where it is not possible to quantify the underlying process, or where sample selection is thought to have filtered the data in a way that masks the original event distribution. In this paper three different approaches are compared: “Sum” distributions, postulated undated events, and kernel density approaches. Their implementation in the OxCal program is described and their suitability for visualizing the results from chronological and geographic analyses considered for cases with and without useful prior information. The conclusion is that kernel density analysis is a powerful method that could be much more widely applied in a wide range of dating applications.
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A synthetic radiocarbon age of 2485±25 BP corresponds to ca. 586 calBC, with 95.4% confidence interval spanning >250 years (771-517 calBC) and 68.2% intervals ranging over 216 years (756-545 calBC).
“For example, S1 Fig displays the radiocarbon calibration curve of a synthetic radiocarbon age of 2485±25 Before Present (BP), which corresponds (by reverse calibration) to ca. 586 calibrated BC (calBC). The 95.4% confidence interval of the calibrated age spans over more than 250 years (771–517 calBC) and the 68.2% confidence intervals range over 216 years (756–545 calBC) [38, 39].”
From The Earth’s magnetic field in Jerusalem during the Babylonian destruction: A unique reference for field behavior and an anchor for archaeomagnetic dating (2020) · cites this paper as [39]
The ‘Demography of Prehistoric Ireland’ section discusses a calibration plateau around 800–400 BC, but does not give the claimed calibration of a synthetic 2485±25 BP age. Searches for 2485, 586, and the stated interval endpoints found no passage establishing the specific age or confidence intervals; the copy is not truncated. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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- Authors
- Ramsey, C. B.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Ramsey, Christopher Bronk
- Venue
- Radiocarbon
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2017-11-20
- Volume
- 59
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1809-1833
- ISSN
- 0033-8222 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-5755
- OpenAlex
- W2770819002
- Cited by
- 1,179
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 80 · 2025: 100 · 2024: 111 · 2023: 155 · 2022: 128 · 2021: 194 · 2020: 244 · 2019: 125 · 2018: 42
- FWCI
- 80.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Radiocarbon (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NRCF010002)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient and Medieval Archaeology Studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tree-ring climate responses
- Keywords
- kernel density estimation, OxCal, sample selection bias, event distribution
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