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HIGH-PRECISION BAYESIAN CHRONOLOGICAL MODELING ON A CALIBRATION PLATEAU: THE NIEDERTIEFENBACH GALLERY GRAVE

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Meadows, John, Rinne, Christoph, Immel, Alexander, Fuchs, Katharina, Krause-Kyora, Ben, Drummer, Clara·2020·Radiocarbon
DOI 10.1017/rdc.2020.76

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Abstract

(a final version of this paper has now been published by Radiocarbon, with full open access: Meadows, J., Rinne, C., Immel, A., Fuchs, K., Krause-Kyora, B., Drummer, C., 2020. High-precision Bayesian chronological modeling on a calibration plateau: the Niedertiefenbach gallery grave, Radiocarbon. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/RDC.2020.76). We combine the results of a 14C dating programme with archaeogenetic, osteological and sparse stratigraphic data, to construct a Bayesian chronological model for a multi-generational sequence situated entirely on a plateau in the 14C calibration curve. Calibrated dates of individual human bones from the Late Neolithic gallery grave at Niedertiefenbach, Hesse, Germany, span the entire calibration plateau in the late 4th millennium (c.3350-3100/3000 cal BC), but our model restricts the overall period of burial to 3–6 generations centered on the later 3200s, and provides narrower absolute date ranges for specific individuals and associated events. We confirm the accuracy and robustness of this model by sensitivity tests of each of its components. Beyond providing a more dynamic narrative for the formation of the heterogenous burial population at Niedertiefenbach, our results show that calibration plateaus are suitable periods for Bayesian chronological modeling of even relatively brief sequences, provided that all the information employed is correct. Prior information constraining both the order of events, and of potential date differences between them, is essential for the model to give accurate, unimodal estimates of the dates of these events.

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  • In the absence of cases where longer sequences defined in calendar terms can be incorporated, the only approaches to achieve dating that avoid plateau spread are to add one or two forms of additional informative (constraining) prior information: (i) an association with the period before/after the plateau where dating is thus better constrained through stratigraphic, known-sequence or typological信息

    “the only approaches to achieve dating that avoid “plateau spread” (where the ambiguities become cumulative, rather than being eliminated/resolved) is to add one or two forms of additional informative (constraining) prior information”

    From Problems of Dating Spread on Radiocarbon Calibration Curve Plateaus: The 1620–1540 BC Example and the Dating of the Therasia Olive Shrub Samples and Thera Volcanic Eruption (2024) · cites this paper as Meadows et al. 2020

    The Conclusion says that valid prior information pertinent to both the order and duration of events is needed for accurate, unimodal dates on a calibration plateau. The ‘Varying the Prior Information’ section reports that the preferred model uses stratigraphic and kinship constraints. The paper does not establish that one form of prior information alone suffices, or identify typological association with a period before or after the plateau as an approach. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Authors
Meadows, J., Rinne, C., Immel, A., Fuchs, K., Krause-Kyora, B., & Drummer, C.
Affiliations
Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE)
Corresponding author
Meadows, John
ORCID
Venue
Radiocarbon
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published
2020-08-07
Volume
62
Issue
5
Pages
1261-1284
ISSN
  • 0033-8222 (ISSN-L)
  • 1945-5755
DOI
10.1017/rdc.2020.76
OpenAlex
W3048080060
Cited by
25
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 3 · 2019: 1
FWCI
1.86
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Radiocarbon (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (publishedVersion)
  • OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
Funders
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (2901391021, CRC 1266)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient and Medieval Archaeology Studies
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Forensic Anthropology and Bioarchaeology Studies
Keywords
Late Neolithic, archaeogenetics, osteology, prior information, burial chronology

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