Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy
Abstract
Do voters effectively hold elected officials accountable for policy decisions? Using data on natural disasters, government spending, and election returns, we show that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering disaster relief spending, but not for investing in disaster preparedness spending. These inconsistencies distort the incentives of public officials, leading the government to underinvest in disaster preparedness, thereby causing substantial public welfare losses. We estimate that $1 spent on preparedness is worth about $15 in terms of the future damage it mitigates. By estimating both the determinants of policy decisions and the consequences of those policies, we provide more complete evidence about citizen competence and government accountability.
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Voters' evaluations tend to consider politicians' actions in the realm of natural disasters.
“There is evidence that voters ' evaluations indeed tend to consider politicians ' actions in the realm of natural disasters”
From Precaution and proportionality in pandemic politics: democracy, state capacity, and COVID-19-related school closures around the world (2022) · cites this paper as Healy and Malhotra 2009
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Lupia, A. (1994) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/2944882 · Cited by 1,850 · see citing works
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Carleton, T. A., & Hsiang, S. M. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad9837 · Cited by 1,348 · see citing works
Partisanship, health behavior, and policy attitudes in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic
Gadarian, S. K., Goodman, S. W., & Pepinsky, T. B. (2021) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0249596 · Cited by 744 · see citing works
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Rubin, O., & de Vries, D. H. (2020) · Policy Design and Practice · doi:10.1080/25741292.2020.1809809 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Cronert, A. (2022) · Journal of Public Policy · doi:10.1017/s0143814x22000101 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“…that voters’ evaluations indeed tend to consider politicians’ actions in the realm of natural disasters—in terms of both provision of relief payments (Healy and Malhotra 2009; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011), and on-site visits (Butzek 2008; Lazarev et al. 2014)—albeit there is still uncertainty…”
BackgroundKikuta, K., & Uesugi, M. (2023) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818322000261 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
- Authors
- HEALY, A., & MALHOTRA, N.
- Affiliations
- Loyola Marymount University (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- Corresponding author
- HEALY, ANDREW
- MALHOTRA, NEIL
- ORCID
- MALHOTRA, NEIL
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2009-08
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 387-406
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2161217898
- Cited by
- 931
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 67 · 2025: 74 · 2024: 90 · 2023: 72 · 2022: 88 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 56 · 2018: 60 · 2017: 44 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 43 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 40 · 2012: 26
- FWCI
- 47.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
- Keywords
- disaster preparedness, government accountability, incumbent parties, election returns, civic competence, government spending
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