Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control
Abstract
The long-term impacts of disasters are ‘hidden’ as it becomes increasingly difficult over time to attribute them to a singular event. We use a synthetic control methodology, formalized in Abadie, A. et al. (2010), Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program, Journal of the American Statistical Association 105 (490): 493–505, to estimate the long-term impacts of a 1992 hurricane on the Hawaiian island of Kauai. Hurricane Iniki, the strongest storm to hit Hawaii in many years, wrought an estimated US$ 7.4 billion (2008) in direct damages. Since the unaffected Hawaiian Islands provide a control group, the case of Iniki is uniquely suited to provide insight into the long-term impact of natural disasters. We show that Kauai's economy has yet to recover, 18 years after this event. We estimate the island's current population to be 12 per cent smaller than it would have been had the hurricane not occurred. Similarly, aggregate personal income and the number of private sector jobs are proportionally lower.
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Liu et al. found strong evidence (43 of 45 studies with statistically significant results) for an increase in respiratory morbidity due to wildfires.
“Liu et al. 67 found strong evidence (43 of 45 studies with statistically significant results) for an increase in respiratory morbidity due to wildfires.”
From The costs and losses of wildfires: a literature survey (2017) · cites this paper as [67]
Higher instances of asthma attacks, coughing, wheezing, other respiratory symptoms, and medication use were commonly reported.
“Higher instances of asthma attacks were commonly reported, along with coughing, wheezing, and other respiratory symptoms, as well as dispensation or use of medication.”
From The costs and losses of wildfires: a literature survey (2017) · cites this paper as [67]
Liu et al. found no studies that directly examined lags longer than 5 days between exposure and hospital admission day.
“Liu et al. found no studies that directly examined lags longer than 5 days between exposure and hospital admission day.”
From The costs and losses of wildfires: a literature survey (2017) · cites this paper as [67]
Cardiovascular symptoms and birth weight showed inconsistent results in the literature.
“Cardiovascular symptoms (six significant findings out of 14 studies) and birth weight (one significant finding out of two studies) showed inconsistent results in the literature.”
From The costs and losses of wildfires: a literature survey (2017) · cites this paper as [67]
Cites
The economic costs of conflict: a case study of the Basque Country
Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/000282803321455188 · Cited by 4,517 · see citing works
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The costs and losses of wildfires: a literature survey
Thomas, D., Butry, D., Gilbert, S., Webb, D., & Fung, J. (2017) · doi:10.6028/nist.sp.1215 · Cited by 202 · see citing works
Impacts of large natural disasters on regional income
Mu, J. E., & Chen, Y. (2016) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2372-3 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
- Authors
- Coffman, M., & Noy, I.
- Affiliations
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- Venue
- Environment and Development Economics
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2011-11-25
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 187-205
- ISSN
- 1355-770X (ISSN-L)
- 1469-4395
- OpenAlex
- W2112766362
- Cited by
- 213
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 23.16
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Environment and Development Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Earthquake and Disaster Impact Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Regional resilience and development
- Keywords
- Hurricane Iniki, natural disasters, long-term economic effects, disaster recovery, Kauai, synthetic control method, population decline, personal income, private sector employment
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