Marginal Emissions Factors for Electricity Generation in the Midcontinent ISO
Abstract
Environmental consequences of electricity generation are often determined using average emission factors. However, as different interventions are incrementally pursued in electricity systems, the resulting marginal change in emissions may differ from what one would predict based on system-average conditions. Here, we estimate average emission factors and marginal emission factors for CO 2, SO 2, and NO x from fossil and nonfossil generators in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region during years 2007–2016. We analyze multiple spatial scales (all MISO; each of the 11 MISO states; each utility; each generator) and use MISO data to characterize differences between the two emission factors (average; marginal). We also explore temporal trends in emissions factors by hour, day, month, and year, as well as the differences that arise from including only fossil generators versus total generation. We find, for example, that marginal emission factors are generally higher during late-night and early morning compared to afternoons. Overall, in MISO, average emission factors are generally higher than marginal estimates (typical difference: ∼20%). This means that the true environmental benefit of an energy efficiency program may be ∼20% smaller than anticipated if one were to use average emissions factors. Our analysis can usefully be extended to other regions to support effective near-term technical, policy and investment decisions based on marginal rather than only average emission factors.
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If marginal emission factors are taken into account, the actual environmental benefit could be as much as 20% lower than anticipated, although charging plans can easily be developed to reduce marginal emissions from EV charging.
“If marginal emission factors are taken into account, the actual environmental benefit could be as much as 20% lower than anticipated, although charging plans can easily be developed to reduce marginal emissions from EV charging [77,78]”
From A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America (2023) · cites this paper as [77]
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Tu, R., Gai, Y. (., Farooq, B., Posen, D., & Hatzopoulou, M. (2020) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115517 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America
Rasbash, D., Dillman, K. J., Heinonen, J., & Ásgeirsson, E. I. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15032181 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“If marginal emission factors are taken into account, the actual environmental benefit could be as much as 20% lower than anticipated, although charging plans can easily be developed to reduce marginal emissions from EV charging [77,78].”
Background
- Authors
- Thind, M. P. S., Wilson, E. J., Azevedo, I. L., & Marshall, J. D.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- Dartmouth College (US)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Marshall, Julian D.
- Venue
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Publisher
- American Chemical Society (ACS)
- Published
- 2017-12-07
- Volume
- 51
- Issue
- 24
- Pages
- 14445-14452
- ISSN
- 0013-936X (ISSN-L)
- 1520-5851
- OpenAlex
- W2770263479
- Cited by
- 52
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 0.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Environmental Science & Technology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Division of Social and Economic Sciences (SES-0949710, SES-1463492)
- Carnegie Mellon University
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (RD83587301)
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota (RL-0011-13)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Renewable energy and sustainable power systems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Keywords
- marginal emission factors, power plant emissions, CO2 emissions, sulfur dioxide emissions, NOx emissions, energy efficiency programs
- MeSH terms
- Electricity, Environmental Pollutants, Electric Power Supplies
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