The Ozone–Climate Penalty: Past, Present, and Future
Open accessAbstract
Climate change is expected to increase global mean temperatures leading to higher tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in already polluted regions, potentially eroding the benefits of expensive emission controls. The magnitude of the "O3-climate penalty" has generally decreased over the past three decades, which makes future predictions for climate impacts on air quality uncertain. Researchers attribute historical reductions in the O3-climate penalty to reductions in NOx emissions but have so far not extended this theory into a quantitative prediction for future effects. Here, we show that a three-dimensional air quality model can be used to map the behavior of the O3-climate penalty under varying NOx and VOC emissions in both NOx-limited and NOx-saturated conditions in Central and Southern California, respectively. Simulations suggest that the planned emissions control program for O3 precursors will not diminish the O3-climate penalty to zero as some observational studies might imply. The results further demonstrate that in a NOx-limited air basin, NOx control strategies alone are sufficient to both decrease the O3-climate penalty and mitigate O3 pollution, while in a NOx-saturated air basin, a modified emissions control plan that carefully chooses reductions in both NOx and VOC emissions may be necessary to eliminate the O3-climate penalty while simultaneously reducing base case O3 concentrations to desired levels. Additional modeling is needed to determine the behavior of the O3-climate penalty as NOx and VOC emissions evolve in other regions.
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Reductions in temperature and humidity can suppress photochemical ozone formation in NOx-rich environments.
“This behavior is consistent with previous work demonstrating that reductions in temperature and humidity can suppress photochemical ozone formation in NO x -rich environments (Archibald et al., 2020; Rasmussen et al., 2013; Doherty et al., 2013; Zanis et al., 2022).”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Rasmussen et al., 2013
The O3-climate penalty section says that biogenic VOCs, which contribute to ozone formation under high-NOx conditions, tend to increase with temperature; this supports a possible temperature effect in the claimed direction. But Calculating the O3-climate penalty says humidity can affect ozone differently depending on conditions, not that reducing humidity suppresses its formation. The Results and discussion also report that, under appreciably NOx-saturated conditions, ozone can decrease as temperature rises, so the claim does not hold across NOx-rich conditions. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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Surface Ozone Concentration in Russia in the Second Half of 2020
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- Authors
- Rasmussen, D. J., Hu, J., Mahmud, A., & Kleeman, M. J.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Davis (US)
- Portland State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kleeman, Michael J.
- Venue
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Publisher
- American Chemical Society (ACS)
- Published
- 2013-11-25
- Volume
- 47
- Issue
- 24
- Pages
- 14258-14266
- ISSN
- 0013-936X (ISSN-L)
- 1520-5851
- PMC
- PMC3990462
- OpenAlex
- W2158354115
- Cited by
- 99
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 2.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Environmental Science & Technology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (ES020237, R21ES020237)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental and Air Quality Management
- Keywords
- tropospheric ozone, NOx emissions, volatile organic compounds, ozone precursors, air quality policy, emission control, Southern California, central California, climate change impacts on air quality
- MeSH terms
- Air Pollutants, Air Pollution, California, Climate, Models, Theoretical, Nitrates, Nitrites, Ozone, Volatile Organic Compounds
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