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Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting
Open accessAbstract
A method is introduced to estimate the proximity of climate sub‐systems to non‐linear thresholds. We suggest to measure the smallest decay rate of the system under investigation and to consider its trend. We argue that this is the diagnostic variable most directly linked to the distance from a bifurcation threshold. With the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER2 we demonstrate our method for the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. It is shown that proper analysis of paleo information could significantly reduce the uncertainty which plagues current estimates of the distance from the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation.
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Cited by
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Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., & Sugihara, G. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08227 · Cited by 4,854
Self-citationTipping elements in the Earth’s climate system
Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105 · Cited by 3,982
Self-citationPronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s
Boulton, C. A., Lenton, T. M., & Boers, N. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01287-8 · Cited by 681
Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries
Bathiany, S., Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., & Lenton, T. M. (2018) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aar5809 · Cited by 479
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Metadata
- Authors
- Held, H., & Kleinen, T.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2004-12-10
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 23
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1890372190
- Cited by
- 319
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 3.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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