El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection
Abstract
Using observed data sets mainly for the period 1979–2005, we find that anomalous warming events different from conventional El Niño events occur in the central equatorial Pacific. This unique warming in the central equatorial Pacific associated with a horseshoe pattern is flanked by a colder sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on both sides along the equator. empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of monthly tropical Pacific SSTA shows that these events are represented by the second mode that explains 12% of the variance. Since a majority of such events are not part of El Niño evolution, the phenomenon is named as El Niño Modoki (pseudo‐El Niño) (“Modoki” is a classical Japanese word, which means “a similar but different thing”). The El Niño Modoki involves ocean‐atmosphere coupled processes which include a unique tripolar sea level pressure pattern during the evolution, analogous to the Southern Oscillation in the case of El Niño. Hence the total entity is named as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki. The ENSO Modoki events significantly influence the temperature and precipitation over many parts of the globe. Depending on the season, the impacts over regions such as the Far East including Japan, New Zealand, western coast of United States, etc., are opposite to those of the conventional ENSO. The difference maps between the two periods of 1979–2004 and 1958–1978 for various oceanic/atmospheric variables suggest that the recent weakening of equatorial easterl…
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Past research has shown significant decadal variability in the frequency of noncanonical El Niños relative to canonical events.
“Past research has shown significant decadal variability in the frequency of noncanonical El Niños relative to canonical events.”
From Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Niño on tropical Atlantic SST (2014) · cites this paper as Ashok et al., 2007
During a Modoki El Niño, warm SST anomalies are often accompanied by anomalously cold SSTs to the east and west, forming a distinctive horseshoe pattern.
“During a Modoki El Niño, warm SST anomalies are often accompanied by anomalously cold SSTs to the east and west, forming a distinctive horseshoe pattern [Ashok et al., 2007].”
From Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Niño on tropical Atlantic SST (2014) · cites this paper as Ashok et al., 2007
SST and surface wind anomalies are much weaker for Modoki compared to canonical.
“SST and surface wind anomalies are much weaker for Modoki compared to canonical, consistent with previous results [Ashok et al., 2007].”
From Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Niño on tropical Atlantic SST (2014) · cites this paper as Ashok et al., 2007
Recent studies indicate a growing frequency of Modoki ENSO events relative to canonical events in recent years.
“Recent studies indicate a growing frequency of Modoki ENSO events relative to canonical events in recent years [Yeh et al., 2009;Ashok et al., 2007;Kao and Yu, 2009;Kug et al., 2009;Lee and McPhaden, 2010].”
From Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Niño on tropical Atlantic SST (2014) · cites this paper as Ashok et al., 2007
ENSO SST variability underpins consequential ENSO-related climate variability and climate extremes within and outside the Pacific.
“Because ENSO SST variability underpins consequential ENSO-related climate variability and climate extremes within and outside the Pacific 6,11,12 , how ENSO SST variability might respond to greenhouse warming is a fundamental issue in climate change science 7,9,13 , with critical societal ramifications.”
From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [11]
Cites
Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the East African short rains: A CGCM study
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Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Yeh, S.-W., An, S.-I., Cobb, K. M., Collins, M., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Kug, J.-S., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2743 · Cited by 891 · see citing works
Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
Cai, W., Ng, B., Wang, G., Santoso, A., Wu, L., & Yang, K. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Australian hot and dry extremes induced by weakenings of the stratospheric polar vortex
Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., Boschat, G., Hudson, D., Thompson, D. W. J., Dowdy, A. J., & Arblaster, J. M. (2019) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0456-x · Cited by 180 · see citing works
How Does El Niño–Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming—A First Look at CMIP6
Fredriksen, H., Berner, J., Subramanian, A. C., & Capotondi, A. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl090640 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
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Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Niño on tropical Atlantic SST
Amaya, D. J., & Foltz, G. R. (2014) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1002/2013jc009476 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Omondi, P., Ogallo, L. A., Anyah, R., Muthama, J. M., & Ininda, J. (2013) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3578 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
- Authors
- Ashok, K., Behera, S. K., Rao, S. A., Weng, H., & Yamagata, T.
- Affiliations
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP)
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2007-11
- Volume
- 112
- Issue
- C11
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2090029279
- Cited by
- 2,721
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 91 · 2025: 122 · 2024: 145 · 2023: 157 · 2022: 219 · 2021: 217 · 2020: 230 · 2019: 177 · 2018: 190 · 2017: 198 · 2016: 177 · 2015: 141 · 2014: 158 · 2013: 144 · 2012: 128
- FWCI
- 35.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- El Niño Modoki, ENSO Modoki, sea surface temperature anomalies, Southern Oscillation, teleconnections, precipitation anomalies, equatorial easterlies, ocean-atmosphere interaction
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