How Does El Niño–Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming—A First Look at CMIP6
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Abstract
The latest generation of coupled models, the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), is used to study the changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warming climate. For the four future scenarios studied, the sea surface temperature variability increases in most CMIP6 models, but to varying degrees. This increase is linked to a weakening of the east‐west temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is evident across all models. Just as in previous generations of climate models, we find that many characteristics of future ENSO remain uncertain. This includes changes in dominant time scale, extratropical teleconnection patterns, and amplitude of El Niño and La Niña events. For models with the strongest increase in future variability, the majority of the increase happens in the Eastern Pacific, where the strongest El Niño events usually occur.
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The IPCC AR6 statement on ENSO SST variability is contrary to studies 5-7 based on CMIP6 climate models.
“The IPCC AR6 statement on ENSO SST variability is contrary to studies 5-7 based on climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 8 (CMIP6).”
From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [5]
The Results (§3.2) and Summary and Conclusion (§4) report increased ENSO-related SST variance in most of the 11 CMIP6 models, supporting the description of this paper as a CMIP6 study of ENSO SST variability. The paper does not discuss the IPCC AR6 statement or establish that its findings are contrary to it; that comparison is the citing authors’ framing. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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- Authors
- Fredriksen, H., Berner, J., Subramanian, A. C., & Capotondi, A.
- Affiliations
- UiT The Arctic University of Norway (NO)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- Corresponding author
- Fredriksen, Hege‐Beate
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2020-11-17
- Volume
- 47
- Issue
- 22
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W3093918166
- Cited by
- 153
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 13
- FWCI
- 7.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA18OAR4310405)
- Climate Program Office (NA18OAR4310405)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- ENSO, global warming, CMIP6, sea surface temperature variability, ENSO teleconnections, eastern Pacific El Niño, climate model projections
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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